2023 College Football - Week 11: Nothing is Impossible
Nov 10, 2023 17:50:41 GMT -6
Funkytown and FSUVike like this
Post by Uncle on Nov 10, 2023 17:50:41 GMT -6
Through the first two weeks of the CFP rankings, not much has changed at the top: Ohio St, Georgia, Michigan, Florida St and Washington are the fixtures at the top and then you have a bunch of 1-loss teams all the way down #11 Louisville. We know that Ohio St & Michigan will play each other so one of those teams will have at least 1 loss and one of Washington and/or Oregon will have another loss if the meet in the PAC-12 Championship. It seems like we're just barreling towards those Championship games just so can finally see who the eventual 4 CFP teams will be...
...but what if those top teams stumble along the way? What if the 1-loss or even 2-loss teams pull-off upsets and get themselves into the conversation? Is there any path for teams in the #9 thru #15 spots to be viable options for the CFP?
...and that's the theme for Week 11 in College Football. We're getting into crunchtime with just 3 weeks left of the 2023 regular season left...for teams like the Nittany Lions and Lane Kiffin's Rebels, they need have Michael Corleone's attitude this weekend when it comes to winning games against the "big dogs", pun intended...
Saturday, 11/11 - Early Afternoon Games
#3 Michigan @ #10 Penn St - Noon ET (FOX) - BIG 10 Game of the Year 2.0; spread is Michigan -4.5
Word came out as I was typing this out that the BIG has suspended Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh for the last 3 regular season games: @ Penn St, @ Maryland and vs Ohio St. Harbaugh was suspended for the first 4 games of the season, but that was against a bunch of "cupcakes" and the next 3 games will go a long way into determining not only the BIG Champion, but possibly have significant implications on the CFP, too. Aside from all the sign-stealing hoopla surrounding the Michigan program these days, there are plenty of interesting subplots to this matchup:
- Michigan QB JJ McCarthy: he's a popular QB3 pick in the 2024 Draft behind Williams & Maye and he finally gets a chance to prove it...on the field
- Penn St is seen the "QB3" of the BIG East behind Michigan/Ohio St; can they finally get a win over one of those programs?
- These two teams are ranked #1 and #2 in total defense entering this game - something has to give
- Michigan rolled Penn St in Ann Arbor in 2022 with 400+ rushing yds, but Penn St has this season's best rush defense - something has to give
- Penn St HC James Franklin is 3-16 all-time vs Top 10 teams in his Penn St career - can he finally break through?
If Penn St punches through the Ohio St/Michigan stranglehold of the BIG East Division, then they shove Michigan down to the confines of the 1-loss teams and thrust themselves into the CFP conversation. And if Michigan rebounds in a few weeks and wins the rivalry game vs Ohio St in Ann Arbor, that will create a 3-way tie at the top with the winner determined by the record of teams they faced in the BIG West, which currently favors Penn St, thanks to Iowa being on their schedule this year and for leading the BIG West Division. First things first though...beating a Harbaugh-less Michigan team in front of 100k+ Nittany Lion fans in Happy Valley...
#21 Arizona @ Colorado - 2:00PM ET (PAC-12 Network); spread is Arizona -10.5
Speaking of college HC's who make headlines, Coach Prime hasn't made too many headlines lately after the Buffaloes hit a brick wall at Eugene in Week 4. The goal for Deion this season was to get to 6 wins and get themselves eligible for a bowl game, which would complete a significant turnaround of a 1-loss Colorado team in 2022 that was considered the worst Power 5 Conference team in the nation. This game will not be easy as Arizona has had a surprisingly terrific season behind a very balanced offense/defense that stifled Washington & USC and has them on a 3-game winning streak vs ranked PAC-12 teams (Wash St, Oregon St & UCLA). Shedeur keeps firing away behind possibly the worst OL in all of College Football and it won't get any easier vs the Wildcats, but the game is in Boulder and Coach Prime needs a big win to get that bowl-game dream within reach. If the Buffalo defense can get a few stops and create a few turnovers, then anything is possible...
Saturday, 11/11 - Mid-Afternoon Games
Miami @ #4 Florida St - 3:30PM ET (ABC); spread is FSU -14.5
The Hurricanes had a nice start to their 2023 season, but they've sputtered into Week 11, losing 3 out of their last 5 and wondering whether they should bench QB Tyler Van Dyke after his 4-turnover performance @ NC State in Week 10. The Seminoles have already secured a spot in the ACC Championship and have their sights set on competing for a National Championship. Miami leads the all-time series 35-32 and the Seminoles have won the last 2 meetings with last year's 45-3 beatdown over the Hurricanes being of the worst beatdowns in the entire series. It's certainly going to be difficult for Miami to pull this one off...but this is a rivalry game that has a history of "wide right" and "wide left" twists and turns and it's certainly not impossible to see an upset here...
#18 Utah @ #5 Washington - 3:30PM ET (FOX); spread is Washington -9.5
After getting manhandled by Oregon in Salt Lake City in Week 9, the Utes bounced back in a big way in Week 10 with a 55-3 beatdown of Arizona St as they held the Sun Devlis to just 83 total yards of offense. Their reward? A tip to Washington against one of the best offenses in the country led by Heisman QB candidate, Michael Penix, Jr., who looks to be back on track after a few poor games following the big win vs Oregon. The Huskies have a tough last 3 games: vs Utah, @ Oregon St and then back home to face their in-state rival Washington St, so if the Huskies are going to get to the PAC-12 Championship game and get into the Top 4 of the CFP rankings, they need to win the tough, back-half of their schedule against some good defenses. USC's defense didn't give Penix or the Washington offense very much to worry about in Week 10 so let's see how Penix responds during these next three crucial weeks.
#13 Tennessee @ #14 Missouri - 3:30PM ET (CBS); spread is Tennessee -1.5
The Tigers played a good game last week in Athens against the Bulldogs and showed that their 7-2 record is valid. The interesting thing about this matchup is that both of these SEC teams are ranked in the Top 15, but this game will have little to no impact on either SEC Divisional race and Georgia has pretty much locked-up the SEC East and Alabama has all but shored up the SEC West. The Volunteers will probably be putting all of their eggs into next week's basket when Georgia comes to Rocky Top and I would expect Missouri to be a bit more focused on this one as they try to get themselves into a very respectable Bowl game. It's a battle of Day 3 QB's between Tennessee's Joe Milton III and Missouri's Brady Cook.
Rutgers @ #22 Iowa - 3:30PM ET (BIG 10 Network); spread is Iowa -1.5
Typically I wouldn't highlight a game between an unranked BIG East team vs a BIG West team with 2 losses, but this game does have some implications. First, Iowa is hanging onto the BIG 10 West lead by the skin of their teeth with Wisconsin, Minnesota and even Nebraska behind them and all it will take is one little slip from the Hawkeyes to lose their spot in the BIG 10 Championship game. But Rutgers is no slouch of a team that can come into Iowa City and create chaos in the BIG 10 West. The Scarlett Knights don’t get hit with a ton of penalties - 6 was the high on the season - and it’s 11th in the nation in fewest penalties called. They are also 10th in the nation in total defense, 16th in time of possession, and with just one game with multiple turnovers - in a win over Michigan State - with 5 spread out over the other 8 games and they gave Ohio St all they could handle in Week 10. This is the perfect team with the perfect style to pull off the nearly impossible feat of beating an Iowa team that wins by being mistake-free and playing stout defense themselves.
Saturday, 11/11 - Evening Game
#9 Ole Miss @ #2 Georgia - 7PM ET (ESPN); spread is Georgia -10.5
Lane Kiffin has had chance, after chance, after chance to win a bigtime game vs a Top 5 team and has come up empty every single time. He had another chance earlier this season in Tuscaloosa when the Rebels were up 7-6 at halftime vs Saban and the Crimson Tide, only to totally flop in the 2nd half and lost 24-10. Believe it or not, Georgia hasn't played Ole Miss since a 45-16 drubbing the Rebels handed the Bulldogs in Oxford in 2016, which was Kirby Smart's 1st season in Athens after both he and Kiffin were assistant coaches for Saban at Alabama. Since that victory, Ole Miss has flopped around in the SEC West behind Alabama & LSU, while Georgia and Kirby Smart have gone on to be the best program in College Football. The Bulldogs haven’t lost a game — any game — in almost 2 years dating back to the 2021 SEC Championship, and haven’t lost in Athens since before the pandemic. But, if there was ever a time for Lane to pull off the biggest win of his career, this would be the time - the Bulldogs played a tough game vs Missouri last week and have to think about going to Rocky Top in Week 12 and have been battling through some injuries on their side. The Bulldogs have been in control for every game this seson, but they've also nearly bit off a bit more than they could chew in 2023 compared to 2021/2022. Georgia is in the midst of a tough 3-game slate and the 2023 College season has showed that teams coming off hard-fought wins rarely win the following week. Diffcult for Lane? Certainly. Impossible? Depends which Lane Kiffin team shows up Saturday night "between the hedges"...
Saturday, 11/11 - Late Night Game
USC @ #6 Oregon - 10:30PM ET (FOX); spread is Oregon -15.5
This is difficult territory for a Lincon Riley coached team: not being ranked in the Top 25 this late into the season. And the schedule doesn't get any easier for the last 3 games, the first of which is a trip to Eugene vs a red-hot Ducks team that has been on a tear since their close loss @ Washington. NFL teams/scouts will be tuned-into this battle of early RD QB prospects as Bo Nix as shown he's capable of being a Day 1 selection next April with a consistently solid/outstanding 2023 season coming off a solid 2022 season. I'm interested to see how Caleb Williams performs in this one as he hasn't had a Heisman-worthy game vs a team with a top defense and I think he needs to show a bit more down the stretch to secure that QB1 status.
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...speaking of doing the impossible: the underdogs this week don't have to go very far for examples of teams & individuals pulling of nearly impossible feats...just ask this guy:
...but what if those top teams stumble along the way? What if the 1-loss or even 2-loss teams pull-off upsets and get themselves into the conversation? Is there any path for teams in the #9 thru #15 spots to be viable options for the CFP?
...and that's the theme for Week 11 in College Football. We're getting into crunchtime with just 3 weeks left of the 2023 regular season left...for teams like the Nittany Lions and Lane Kiffin's Rebels, they need have Michael Corleone's attitude this weekend when it comes to winning games against the "big dogs", pun intended...
Saturday, 11/11 - Early Afternoon Games
#3 Michigan @ #10 Penn St - Noon ET (FOX) - BIG 10 Game of the Year 2.0; spread is Michigan -4.5
Word came out as I was typing this out that the BIG has suspended Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh for the last 3 regular season games: @ Penn St, @ Maryland and vs Ohio St. Harbaugh was suspended for the first 4 games of the season, but that was against a bunch of "cupcakes" and the next 3 games will go a long way into determining not only the BIG Champion, but possibly have significant implications on the CFP, too. Aside from all the sign-stealing hoopla surrounding the Michigan program these days, there are plenty of interesting subplots to this matchup:
- Michigan QB JJ McCarthy: he's a popular QB3 pick in the 2024 Draft behind Williams & Maye and he finally gets a chance to prove it...on the field
- Penn St is seen the "QB3" of the BIG East behind Michigan/Ohio St; can they finally get a win over one of those programs?
- These two teams are ranked #1 and #2 in total defense entering this game - something has to give
- Michigan rolled Penn St in Ann Arbor in 2022 with 400+ rushing yds, but Penn St has this season's best rush defense - something has to give
- Penn St HC James Franklin is 3-16 all-time vs Top 10 teams in his Penn St career - can he finally break through?
If Penn St punches through the Ohio St/Michigan stranglehold of the BIG East Division, then they shove Michigan down to the confines of the 1-loss teams and thrust themselves into the CFP conversation. And if Michigan rebounds in a few weeks and wins the rivalry game vs Ohio St in Ann Arbor, that will create a 3-way tie at the top with the winner determined by the record of teams they faced in the BIG West, which currently favors Penn St, thanks to Iowa being on their schedule this year and for leading the BIG West Division. First things first though...beating a Harbaugh-less Michigan team in front of 100k+ Nittany Lion fans in Happy Valley...
#21 Arizona @ Colorado - 2:00PM ET (PAC-12 Network); spread is Arizona -10.5
Speaking of college HC's who make headlines, Coach Prime hasn't made too many headlines lately after the Buffaloes hit a brick wall at Eugene in Week 4. The goal for Deion this season was to get to 6 wins and get themselves eligible for a bowl game, which would complete a significant turnaround of a 1-loss Colorado team in 2022 that was considered the worst Power 5 Conference team in the nation. This game will not be easy as Arizona has had a surprisingly terrific season behind a very balanced offense/defense that stifled Washington & USC and has them on a 3-game winning streak vs ranked PAC-12 teams (Wash St, Oregon St & UCLA). Shedeur keeps firing away behind possibly the worst OL in all of College Football and it won't get any easier vs the Wildcats, but the game is in Boulder and Coach Prime needs a big win to get that bowl-game dream within reach. If the Buffalo defense can get a few stops and create a few turnovers, then anything is possible...
Saturday, 11/11 - Mid-Afternoon Games
Miami @ #4 Florida St - 3:30PM ET (ABC); spread is FSU -14.5
The Hurricanes had a nice start to their 2023 season, but they've sputtered into Week 11, losing 3 out of their last 5 and wondering whether they should bench QB Tyler Van Dyke after his 4-turnover performance @ NC State in Week 10. The Seminoles have already secured a spot in the ACC Championship and have their sights set on competing for a National Championship. Miami leads the all-time series 35-32 and the Seminoles have won the last 2 meetings with last year's 45-3 beatdown over the Hurricanes being of the worst beatdowns in the entire series. It's certainly going to be difficult for Miami to pull this one off...but this is a rivalry game that has a history of "wide right" and "wide left" twists and turns and it's certainly not impossible to see an upset here...
#18 Utah @ #5 Washington - 3:30PM ET (FOX); spread is Washington -9.5
After getting manhandled by Oregon in Salt Lake City in Week 9, the Utes bounced back in a big way in Week 10 with a 55-3 beatdown of Arizona St as they held the Sun Devlis to just 83 total yards of offense. Their reward? A tip to Washington against one of the best offenses in the country led by Heisman QB candidate, Michael Penix, Jr., who looks to be back on track after a few poor games following the big win vs Oregon. The Huskies have a tough last 3 games: vs Utah, @ Oregon St and then back home to face their in-state rival Washington St, so if the Huskies are going to get to the PAC-12 Championship game and get into the Top 4 of the CFP rankings, they need to win the tough, back-half of their schedule against some good defenses. USC's defense didn't give Penix or the Washington offense very much to worry about in Week 10 so let's see how Penix responds during these next three crucial weeks.
#13 Tennessee @ #14 Missouri - 3:30PM ET (CBS); spread is Tennessee -1.5
The Tigers played a good game last week in Athens against the Bulldogs and showed that their 7-2 record is valid. The interesting thing about this matchup is that both of these SEC teams are ranked in the Top 15, but this game will have little to no impact on either SEC Divisional race and Georgia has pretty much locked-up the SEC East and Alabama has all but shored up the SEC West. The Volunteers will probably be putting all of their eggs into next week's basket when Georgia comes to Rocky Top and I would expect Missouri to be a bit more focused on this one as they try to get themselves into a very respectable Bowl game. It's a battle of Day 3 QB's between Tennessee's Joe Milton III and Missouri's Brady Cook.
Rutgers @ #22 Iowa - 3:30PM ET (BIG 10 Network); spread is Iowa -1.5
Typically I wouldn't highlight a game between an unranked BIG East team vs a BIG West team with 2 losses, but this game does have some implications. First, Iowa is hanging onto the BIG 10 West lead by the skin of their teeth with Wisconsin, Minnesota and even Nebraska behind them and all it will take is one little slip from the Hawkeyes to lose their spot in the BIG 10 Championship game. But Rutgers is no slouch of a team that can come into Iowa City and create chaos in the BIG 10 West. The Scarlett Knights don’t get hit with a ton of penalties - 6 was the high on the season - and it’s 11th in the nation in fewest penalties called. They are also 10th in the nation in total defense, 16th in time of possession, and with just one game with multiple turnovers - in a win over Michigan State - with 5 spread out over the other 8 games and they gave Ohio St all they could handle in Week 10. This is the perfect team with the perfect style to pull off the nearly impossible feat of beating an Iowa team that wins by being mistake-free and playing stout defense themselves.
Saturday, 11/11 - Evening Game
#9 Ole Miss @ #2 Georgia - 7PM ET (ESPN); spread is Georgia -10.5
Lane Kiffin has had chance, after chance, after chance to win a bigtime game vs a Top 5 team and has come up empty every single time. He had another chance earlier this season in Tuscaloosa when the Rebels were up 7-6 at halftime vs Saban and the Crimson Tide, only to totally flop in the 2nd half and lost 24-10. Believe it or not, Georgia hasn't played Ole Miss since a 45-16 drubbing the Rebels handed the Bulldogs in Oxford in 2016, which was Kirby Smart's 1st season in Athens after both he and Kiffin were assistant coaches for Saban at Alabama. Since that victory, Ole Miss has flopped around in the SEC West behind Alabama & LSU, while Georgia and Kirby Smart have gone on to be the best program in College Football. The Bulldogs haven’t lost a game — any game — in almost 2 years dating back to the 2021 SEC Championship, and haven’t lost in Athens since before the pandemic. But, if there was ever a time for Lane to pull off the biggest win of his career, this would be the time - the Bulldogs played a tough game vs Missouri last week and have to think about going to Rocky Top in Week 12 and have been battling through some injuries on their side. The Bulldogs have been in control for every game this seson, but they've also nearly bit off a bit more than they could chew in 2023 compared to 2021/2022. Georgia is in the midst of a tough 3-game slate and the 2023 College season has showed that teams coming off hard-fought wins rarely win the following week. Diffcult for Lane? Certainly. Impossible? Depends which Lane Kiffin team shows up Saturday night "between the hedges"...
Saturday, 11/11 - Late Night Game
USC @ #6 Oregon - 10:30PM ET (FOX); spread is Oregon -15.5
This is difficult territory for a Lincon Riley coached team: not being ranked in the Top 25 this late into the season. And the schedule doesn't get any easier for the last 3 games, the first of which is a trip to Eugene vs a red-hot Ducks team that has been on a tear since their close loss @ Washington. NFL teams/scouts will be tuned-into this battle of early RD QB prospects as Bo Nix as shown he's capable of being a Day 1 selection next April with a consistently solid/outstanding 2023 season coming off a solid 2022 season. I'm interested to see how Caleb Williams performs in this one as he hasn't had a Heisman-worthy game vs a team with a top defense and I think he needs to show a bit more down the stretch to secure that QB1 status.
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...speaking of doing the impossible: the underdogs this week don't have to go very far for examples of teams & individuals pulling of nearly impossible feats...just ask this guy:
... and neither is this Chris guy.