Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group

comet52
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Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group Nov 11, 2023 11:52:52 GMT -6 via mobile Funkytown likes this

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Post by comet52 on Nov 11, 2023 11:52:52 GMT -6

Nov 10, 2023 16:44:46 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Nov 10, 2023 16:31:10 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

Many on here were questioning why Vegas has the Saints as road favorites. Like a journeyman QB coming off the bench and leading an improbable upset on the road against a mediocre Team with their own journeyman QB was somehow indicative on some eminent surge towards the Playoffs.

The Dobbs story is fun. He's a career backup who puts the ball in harms way amongst the worst in the worst in the NFL.

The Defense was pushed around all day by a bad Falcons Offense. The CBs can't cover so are asked to stay 5 yards off every WR. They aren't facing a scrub like Love or Heineke or Badget.

Frankly, of the 5 possible outcomes the Saints winning close or easily are the most likely.

I just thought there'd be more stock in our 4 game winning streak, and seeing how both teams are playing similarly, feels like a push or Saints -1 feels more accurate. -3 isn't very appealing especially since we are only losing by one score this year and it's a push if we lose by a FG. Falcons -4.5 really felt off and that still would have failed even if the Vikings didn't score that winning TD, they still cover.

I put the matchup through my simulator and calculated NO -3.5... hmmmm. Maybe I am off-base on this. But then again, the Vikings are 4-0 against the spread the past 4 weeks and the Saints are 1-3 in that stretch. I dunno, -3 still feels wrong. Maybe Dobbs crashes down to earth, but even then in the games where we were turning the ball over like crazy we still weren't losing by much.

How does your simulator rate Dobbs? Seems like it would be hard to estimate.

I'm here for entertainment purposes only

Danchat
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Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group Nov 11, 2023 12:23:32 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

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Post by Danchat on Nov 11, 2023 12:23:32 GMT -6

Nov 11, 2023 11:52:52 GMT -6 comet52 said:

Nov 10, 2023 16:44:46 GMT -6 Danchat said:

I just thought there'd be more stock in our 4 game winning streak, and seeing how both teams are playing similarly, feels like a push or Saints -1 feels more accurate. -3 isn't very appealing especially since we are only losing by one score this year and it's a push if we lose by a FG. Falcons -4.5 really felt off and that still would have failed even if the Vikings didn't score that winning TD, they still cover.

I put the matchup through my simulator and calculated NO -3.5... hmmmm. Maybe I am off-base on this. But then again, the Vikings are 4-0 against the spread the past 4 weeks and the Saints are 1-3 in that stretch. I dunno, -3 still feels wrong. Maybe Dobbs crashes down to earth, but even then in the games where we were turning the ball over like crazy we still weren't losing by much.

How does your simulator rate Dobbs? Seems like it would be hard to estimate.

Yeah, he's rated as having below average arm strength and accuracy, but higher awareness (less interceptions, less sacks) than the usual backup. And his speed isn't anything unusual, so it hasn't forecasted the larger than expected rushing numbers he's put up. That probably explains why it is favoring the Saints more than by my "eye test".

Against the spread, my simulator is 4-4 against the spread when predicting Dobbs' games as a Cardinal.

comet52
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Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group Nov 11, 2023 12:25:39 GMT -6 via mobile Funkytown, Oracle Bone Diviner, and 1 more like this

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Post by comet52 on Nov 11, 2023 12:25:39 GMT -6

Nov 11, 2023 12:23:32 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Nov 11, 2023 11:52:52 GMT -6 comet52 said:

How does your simulator rate Dobbs? Seems like it would be hard to estimate.

Yeah, he's rated as having below average arm strength and accuracy, but higher awareness (less interceptions, less sacks) than the usual backup. And his speed isn't anything unusual, so it hasn't forecasted the larger than expected rushing numbers he's put up. That probably explains why it is favoring the Saints more than by my "eye test".

Against the spread, my simulator is 4-4 against the spread when predicting Dobbs' games as a Cardinal.

If he gets hurt running around we get to watch Sean Mannion lose the game. Input variables for that into the sim, it will probably make the computer catch on fire!

I'm here for entertainment purposes only

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Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group Nov 11, 2023 12:41:56 GMT -6 via mobile Funkytown and Drank like this

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Post by Josey Wales on Nov 11, 2023 12:41:56 GMT -6

Kinda OT, but this is gonna royally suck! My wife is having surgery in Miami early Monday morning so we have to drive down Sunday and stay overnight.

I'm waking her butt up early so I will miss as little of the game as possible. Ha!

Last Edit: Nov 11, 2023 12:42:23 GMT -6 by Josey Wales

PurpleKoolaid
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Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group Nov 11, 2023 12:46:36 GMT -6 Funkytown, Danchat, and 2 more like this

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Post by PurpleKoolaid on Nov 11, 2023 12:46:36 GMT -6

Nov 11, 2023 12:41:56 GMT -6 Josey Wales said:

Kinda OT, but this is gonna royally suck! My wife is having surgery in Miami early Monday morning so we have to drive down Sunday and stay overnight.

I'm waking her butt up early so I will miss as little of the game as possible. Ha!

Best wishes for your wife's speedy recovery!

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Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group Nov 11, 2023 12:50:28 GMT -6 Funkytown and Drank like this

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Post by Danchat on Nov 11, 2023 12:50:28 GMT -6

Nov 11, 2023 12:25:39 GMT -6 comet52 said:

Nov 11, 2023 12:23:32 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Yeah, he's rated as having below average arm strength and accuracy, but higher awareness (less interceptions, less sacks) than the usual backup. And his speed isn't anything unusual, so it hasn't forecasted the larger than expected rushing numbers he's put up. That probably explains why it is favoring the Saints more than by my "eye test".

Against the spread, my simulator is 4-4 against the spread when predicting Dobbs' games as a Cardinal.

If he gets hurt running around we get to watch Sean Mannion lose the game. Input variables for that into the sim, it will probably make the computer catch on fire!

That was actually one of the first things I ever tried out on the simulator when I debuted it a couple years ago, it was for the Packers-Vikings game where Kirk missed it with COVID. Good times...

Our win % goes from 46% with Dobbs to 22% with Mannion. *flush*

By the way, if you're interested in more of my simulator stuff, I'm currently running a playoff race that have seven game series with rosters having 10 years of players on it here.

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,498 Likes: 31,429 Fan Since: 1998 Member is Online	Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group Nov 11, 2023 13:01:07 GMT -6 via mobile Josey Wales and Drank like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Nov 11, 2023 13:01:07 GMT -6

spence Franchise Player Posts: 3,408 Likes: 984	Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group Nov 11, 2023 13:06:08 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by spence on Nov 11, 2023 13:06:08 GMT -6 Nov 11, 2023 13:01:07 GMT -6 Funkytown said: 74% it is
	Spence's updated s*** list: TAFKASP Raptorman bonecrusher On thin ice: whoskmoon ball99

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,498 Likes: 31,429 Fan Since: 1998 Member is Online	Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group Nov 11, 2023 14:48:55 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Nov 11, 2023 14:48:55 GMT -6

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,498 Likes: 31,429 Fan Since: 1998 Member is Online	Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group Nov 11, 2023 15:57:54 GMT -6 via mobile Drank likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Nov 11, 2023 15:57:54 GMT -6 Bubble wrap Dobbs! And unless it's absolutely necessary, he better stay in the pocket! If he takes off, know when to get down or out of bounds. Don't try to be the hero!
	Last Edit: Nov 11, 2023 16:01:11 GMT -6 by Funkytown

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,498 Likes: 31,429 Fan Since: 1998 Member is Online	Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group Nov 11, 2023 16:01:21 GMT -6 via mobile Josey Wales likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Nov 11, 2023 16:01:21 GMT -6

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Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group Nov 11, 2023 16:45:04 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by Raptorman on Nov 11, 2023 16:45:04 GMT -6

Nov 11, 2023 12:41:56 GMT -6 Josey Wales said:

Kinda OT, but this is gonna royally suck! My wife is having surgery in Miami early Monday morning so we have to drive down Sunday and stay overnight.

I'm waking her butt up early so I will miss as little of the game as possible. Ha!

You know it’s not on in Miami?

You can't truly call yourself "peaceful" unless you are capable of great violence. If you are not capable of great violence, you are not peaceful, you are harmless.

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,498 Likes: 31,429 Fan Since: 1998 Member is Online	Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group Nov 11, 2023 18:04:17 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Nov 11, 2023 18:04:17 GMT -6 Always love the helicopters! ...and that stuff was cooler when we played at TCF. lol.
	Last Edit: Nov 11, 2023 18:05:59 GMT -6 by Funkytown

Drank
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Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group Nov 11, 2023 19:27:18 GMT -6 via mobile Funkytown likes this

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Post by Drank on Nov 11, 2023 19:27:18 GMT -6

Nov 11, 2023 18:04:17 GMT -6 Funkytown said:

Always love the helicopters!

...and that stuff was cooler when we played at TCF. lol.

Well in that case everything was “cooler “ y’all was playing freeze tag at TCF.

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Week 10 - Saints @ Vikes Support Group Nov 11, 2023 23:47:52 GMT -6 vikadam likes this

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Post by dauntessmallhands on Nov 11, 2023 23:47:52 GMT -6

I really hope Chandler shows out tomorrow. It's really hard to figure out what they think of him. Mattison being terrible. Akers better by the eye test yet still bad from a metrics standpoint. And the fact that they thought to go get him in the first place and put him ahead of Chandler. The team rails off a bunch of wins while losing Akers in the process and Mattison still performing poorly. By all accounts you'd think Chandler was in some sort of doghouse and they would have gone out and grabbed a guy this week. Yet after all that they're giving him the backup job for this week. So he should get a reasonable number of carries.

So this is his shot. Even if he ends up not being efficient, it would be huge for him to take one to the house. Fingers crossed this is his first step to more carries. He could really be the key to the game