2023 College Football - Week 9: Trick or Treat?
Oct 26, 2023 21:29:16 GMT -6
Funkytown and FSUVike like this
Post by Uncle on Oct 26, 2023 21:29:16 GMT -6
Fresh off another "Couch Potato Week" in Week 8, the Week 9 slate of games doesn't look like it offers much in the way of "treats" to College Football fans. You have two matches between ranked teams (#8 Oregon @ #13 Utah, #20 Duke @ #18 Louisville), a few matchups that could be entertaining if injuries don't get in the way and then not much else...
...but if this 2023 College season has taught us anything, it's that the "tricks" come when you least expect them. With the exception of Week 3, there has been a Top 10 team beaten every week:
Week 1: #5 LSU lost to #8 FSU; #9 Clemson lost to Duke
Week 2: #3 Alabama lost to #11 Texas
Week 4: #9 Notre Dame lost to #6 Ohio St
Week 5: #10 Utah lost to #19 Oregon St
Week 6: #3 Texas lost to #12 Oklahoma; #10 Notre Dame lost to #25 Louisville
Week 7: #8 Oregon lost to #7 Washington, #10 USC lost to #21 Notre Dame
Week 8: #7 Penn St lost to #3 Ohio St; #10 UNC lost to Virginia
The 10th ranked team in the country has lost the last 3 weeks and the 3rd ranked team has lost three times...#10 Penn St should be able to handle unranked Indiana in Happy Valley, but is there a "trick" in-store for #3 Ohio St when they visit Camp Randall in Madison, WI? On paper, there shouldn't be...
....but football games aren't played on paper, and just like a long night of trick-or-treating on Halloween, you need to unwrap the candy to see exactly what you're gonna get...
Saturday, 10/28 - Early Afternoon Game
#6 Oklahoma @ Kansas - Noon ET (FOX); spread is Oklahoma -10
It's been reported that Kansas QB Jalon Daniels is "out" for this game, which will make it tougher for the Jayhawks to pull off this upset in Lawrence. But Kansas has played decent football in his absence - a solid win vs UCF (a team that took Oklahoma to the brink last week) and a squeaker of a loss @ a rising Oklahoma St team. The Sooners nearly lost last week at home to unranked UCF, so they are somewhat vulnerable and Kansas is no automatic win anymore in the BIG XII as they went bowling last year and are just 1-win shy of bowling again in 2023. In Daniel's absence, QB Jason Bean has racked up some solid stats and has Kansas ranked in the Top 20 in scoring offense nationally. If the Jayhawks can get a few stops on Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel throughout the game and keep it close in the 4th, they might have enough offense to turn Oklahoma's perfect season into a Halloween nightmare.
Saturday, 10/28 - Mid-Afternoon Games
#1 Georgia vs Florida - 3:30PM ET (CBS); spread is Georgia -14.5
This game used to officially be called "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" because of the lavish and alcohol-infused tailgating around Jacksonsville prior to the game, but the term has been "banned" by the SEC and CBS due to concerns about alcohol abuse from students and alumni, although you still see it being used online quite a bit. Georgia has dominated this series recently - winning 6 out of the last 7 - and the last 2 wins by Georgia weren't close games. But the 2023 Georgia team has been living dangerously a bit this season and although it seems Florida is "down" this year, they are still 5-2 and have shown some signs of being dangerous themselves when they play a complete game. Plus, Georgia TE Brock Browers is sidelined for the rest of the season and more will fall on the shoulders/arm of QB Carson Beck who looked good at home vs Kentucky, but might be vulnerable a bit in a rivalry game without the safety net of Browers out there. If Florida plays a great game, this could get within 1 score.
#8 Oregon @ #13 Utah - 3:30PM ET (FOX); spread is Oregon -6.5
This is a great PAC-12 game with significant implications on the PAC-12 Championship and possibly the CFP, too. Both teams come into this game with just 1 Conference loss so this is essentially an eliminaton game from the PAC-12 Championship, and for Oregon - who still has thoughts of winning the PAC-12 and getting into the CFP - a loss means they're toast for the CFP. There is a bit of rivalry to these teams: in 2021, Utah beat Oregon twice to win the PAC-12 Championship, and in 2022 both teams finished in a 3-way tie with Washington at the top and it was Utah that went to the PAC-12 Championship game to face USC over Oregon who were in-line for that spot. Oregon has been unable to get over that hump to get to the PAC-12 Championship and it has to overcome Utah to possibly get there. There will be no Cam Rising the rest of the way for the Utes so they will need to rely on their defense and ball-control attack to pull this out. Oregon and QB Bo Nix don't turn the ball over at all, and Utah will likely need to try and force some turnovers if it hopes to have a chance. Rice–Eccles Stadium is a difficult place to play and win - the Utes have an 18-game home winning streak with their only home loss since 2018 coming in the 2020 COVID year with no fans in the stands - but Bo Nix recently set the record with most FBS QB starts (54) so he probably won't be intimidated by the crowd. Plus, Oregon is already "battle-tested" in hostile environment this season after nearly pulling off the win in Husky Stadium. The two-time defending PAC-12 Champions aren't going down easy and in order for Oregon to "be the man" in the PAC-12, they gotta "beat the man" and somehow this season, Utah is still "the man".
#20 Duke @ #18 Louisville - 3:30PM ET (ESPN); spread is Louisville -4.5
Much like the Oregon/Utah game, this is a de-facto elimination game from the ACC Championship as both Duke and Louisville have 1-loss in the Conference each and a 2nd loss essentially ends their chances with UNC now with 1-loss, too. The big question in this one will be the availability of Duke QB Riley Leonard: with Riley Leonard in the lineup @ FSU last week, the Blue Devils went toe-to-toe w/ the Seminoles and were up 20-17 in the 4th when Leonard went down which allowed FSU to slam the door. Even if Leonard will play, Duke will lean on their stout OL/DL and solid defense overall to carry them through. The trouble for them is that the Cardinals have been here before as the gameplan was similar for Notre Dame when they came into Louisville: lean on the OL/DL and solid defense, only for Louisville's defense to play stronger and outplay the Fighting Irish to take the win. Plus, Louisville HC Jeff Brohm is known to get his team "up" for big games like this and the Cardials are coming off a bye, whereas Duke - just like Notre Dame - are coming into Louisville on the heels of a hard-fought road loss.
Saturday, 10/28 - Evening Games
#3 Ohio St @ Wisconsin - 7:30PM ET (NBC); spread is Ohio St -14.5
All the statistics and matchups in this one favor the Buckeys, coming off a massive BIG win over Penn St. The Badgers lost their starting QB and they have struggled to pass the ball and move past power football on offense. And Ohio St's tough defense won't make it any easier. But this could be a bit of a classic "trap game" for the Buckeyes - fresh off a big win, going on the road in a tough environment at night, and facing a good coach in Luke Fickell. The Badgers need to run the ball strong to RB Braelon Allen and play stout defense in this to have a chance in this one. Ohio St has been more concerned with the sign-stealing controversy in Michigan than they have about the game this weekend in Camp Randell Stadium and the "trick" could very well be on them if they don't focus.
#11 Oregon St @ Arizona - 10:30PM (ESPN); spread is Oregon St -3.5
The Beavers are quietly still contenders in the PAC-12 with only 1 Conference loss, tied with Oregon and Utah and just behind Washington, and either the Ducks or Utes will have another loss which means if the Beavers win this road game over the Wildcats, there will be another 3-way battle for 2 spots in the PAC-12 Championship game. But winning this one will not be a walk in the park, as Arizona took Washington and USC to the brink and really handled Washington St to the tune of 44-6 in Week 7. The Wildcats are coming off a bye and sport a tough defense against the run, something the Beaves rely on for their offense. This should be a good game if you're willing to stay up.
...but if this 2023 College season has taught us anything, it's that the "tricks" come when you least expect them. With the exception of Week 3, there has been a Top 10 team beaten every week:
Week 1: #5 LSU lost to #8 FSU; #9 Clemson lost to Duke
Week 2: #3 Alabama lost to #11 Texas
Week 4: #9 Notre Dame lost to #6 Ohio St
Week 5: #10 Utah lost to #19 Oregon St
Week 6: #3 Texas lost to #12 Oklahoma; #10 Notre Dame lost to #25 Louisville
Week 7: #8 Oregon lost to #7 Washington, #10 USC lost to #21 Notre Dame
Week 8: #7 Penn St lost to #3 Ohio St; #10 UNC lost to Virginia
The 10th ranked team in the country has lost the last 3 weeks and the 3rd ranked team has lost three times...#10 Penn St should be able to handle unranked Indiana in Happy Valley, but is there a "trick" in-store for #3 Ohio St when they visit Camp Randall in Madison, WI? On paper, there shouldn't be...
....but football games aren't played on paper, and just like a long night of trick-or-treating on Halloween, you need to unwrap the candy to see exactly what you're gonna get...
Saturday, 10/28 - Early Afternoon Game
#6 Oklahoma @ Kansas - Noon ET (FOX); spread is Oklahoma -10
It's been reported that Kansas QB Jalon Daniels is "out" for this game, which will make it tougher for the Jayhawks to pull off this upset in Lawrence. But Kansas has played decent football in his absence - a solid win vs UCF (a team that took Oklahoma to the brink last week) and a squeaker of a loss @ a rising Oklahoma St team. The Sooners nearly lost last week at home to unranked UCF, so they are somewhat vulnerable and Kansas is no automatic win anymore in the BIG XII as they went bowling last year and are just 1-win shy of bowling again in 2023. In Daniel's absence, QB Jason Bean has racked up some solid stats and has Kansas ranked in the Top 20 in scoring offense nationally. If the Jayhawks can get a few stops on Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel throughout the game and keep it close in the 4th, they might have enough offense to turn Oklahoma's perfect season into a Halloween nightmare.
Saturday, 10/28 - Mid-Afternoon Games
#1 Georgia vs Florida - 3:30PM ET (CBS); spread is Georgia -14.5
This game used to officially be called "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" because of the lavish and alcohol-infused tailgating around Jacksonsville prior to the game, but the term has been "banned" by the SEC and CBS due to concerns about alcohol abuse from students and alumni, although you still see it being used online quite a bit. Georgia has dominated this series recently - winning 6 out of the last 7 - and the last 2 wins by Georgia weren't close games. But the 2023 Georgia team has been living dangerously a bit this season and although it seems Florida is "down" this year, they are still 5-2 and have shown some signs of being dangerous themselves when they play a complete game. Plus, Georgia TE Brock Browers is sidelined for the rest of the season and more will fall on the shoulders/arm of QB Carson Beck who looked good at home vs Kentucky, but might be vulnerable a bit in a rivalry game without the safety net of Browers out there. If Florida plays a great game, this could get within 1 score.
#8 Oregon @ #13 Utah - 3:30PM ET (FOX); spread is Oregon -6.5
This is a great PAC-12 game with significant implications on the PAC-12 Championship and possibly the CFP, too. Both teams come into this game with just 1 Conference loss so this is essentially an eliminaton game from the PAC-12 Championship, and for Oregon - who still has thoughts of winning the PAC-12 and getting into the CFP - a loss means they're toast for the CFP. There is a bit of rivalry to these teams: in 2021, Utah beat Oregon twice to win the PAC-12 Championship, and in 2022 both teams finished in a 3-way tie with Washington at the top and it was Utah that went to the PAC-12 Championship game to face USC over Oregon who were in-line for that spot. Oregon has been unable to get over that hump to get to the PAC-12 Championship and it has to overcome Utah to possibly get there. There will be no Cam Rising the rest of the way for the Utes so they will need to rely on their defense and ball-control attack to pull this out. Oregon and QB Bo Nix don't turn the ball over at all, and Utah will likely need to try and force some turnovers if it hopes to have a chance. Rice–Eccles Stadium is a difficult place to play and win - the Utes have an 18-game home winning streak with their only home loss since 2018 coming in the 2020 COVID year with no fans in the stands - but Bo Nix recently set the record with most FBS QB starts (54) so he probably won't be intimidated by the crowd. Plus, Oregon is already "battle-tested" in hostile environment this season after nearly pulling off the win in Husky Stadium. The two-time defending PAC-12 Champions aren't going down easy and in order for Oregon to "be the man" in the PAC-12, they gotta "beat the man" and somehow this season, Utah is still "the man".
#20 Duke @ #18 Louisville - 3:30PM ET (ESPN); spread is Louisville -4.5
Much like the Oregon/Utah game, this is a de-facto elimination game from the ACC Championship as both Duke and Louisville have 1-loss in the Conference each and a 2nd loss essentially ends their chances with UNC now with 1-loss, too. The big question in this one will be the availability of Duke QB Riley Leonard: with Riley Leonard in the lineup @ FSU last week, the Blue Devils went toe-to-toe w/ the Seminoles and were up 20-17 in the 4th when Leonard went down which allowed FSU to slam the door. Even if Leonard will play, Duke will lean on their stout OL/DL and solid defense overall to carry them through. The trouble for them is that the Cardinals have been here before as the gameplan was similar for Notre Dame when they came into Louisville: lean on the OL/DL and solid defense, only for Louisville's defense to play stronger and outplay the Fighting Irish to take the win. Plus, Louisville HC Jeff Brohm is known to get his team "up" for big games like this and the Cardials are coming off a bye, whereas Duke - just like Notre Dame - are coming into Louisville on the heels of a hard-fought road loss.
Saturday, 10/28 - Evening Games
#3 Ohio St @ Wisconsin - 7:30PM ET (NBC); spread is Ohio St -14.5
All the statistics and matchups in this one favor the Buckeys, coming off a massive BIG win over Penn St. The Badgers lost their starting QB and they have struggled to pass the ball and move past power football on offense. And Ohio St's tough defense won't make it any easier. But this could be a bit of a classic "trap game" for the Buckeyes - fresh off a big win, going on the road in a tough environment at night, and facing a good coach in Luke Fickell. The Badgers need to run the ball strong to RB Braelon Allen and play stout defense in this to have a chance in this one. Ohio St has been more concerned with the sign-stealing controversy in Michigan than they have about the game this weekend in Camp Randell Stadium and the "trick" could very well be on them if they don't focus.
#11 Oregon St @ Arizona - 10:30PM (ESPN); spread is Oregon St -3.5
The Beavers are quietly still contenders in the PAC-12 with only 1 Conference loss, tied with Oregon and Utah and just behind Washington, and either the Ducks or Utes will have another loss which means if the Beavers win this road game over the Wildcats, there will be another 3-way battle for 2 spots in the PAC-12 Championship game. But winning this one will not be a walk in the park, as Arizona took Washington and USC to the brink and really handled Washington St to the tune of 44-6 in Week 7. The Wildcats are coming off a bye and sport a tough defense against the run, something the Beaves rely on for their offense. This should be a good game if you're willing to stay up.
... and neither is this Chris guy.