The Biggest Decision: Danielle Hunter

What decision must the Vikings make?

The organization has to decide whether or not it wants to extend Hunter. He is the most productive pass rusher that the Vikings have drafted and developed in the last 10 years. And he was the Vikings’ most impactful defender in 2023.

Questions regarding Hunter’s future have existed for months. Last fall, for example, Hunter arrived in Minnesota for training camp but did not initially participate. Trade rumors swirled. The sides ultimately agreed on a one-year contract worth up to $20 million.

Around the trade deadline, Hunter’s name resurfaced. The Vikings kept him, believing they could compete for the NFC North, while also understanding that his departure in free agency would likely return draft pick compensation.

Another inflection point exists now with Hunter’s contract set to void. The team will be evaluating Hunter’s future value, while Hunter’s camp will be assessing how much another team might be willing to pay him on the open market.

When does the decision have to be made?

By March 13.

That’s the first day of the new NFL league year. If the sides cannot come to terms before then, Hunter’s contract will be void and he will become a free agent.

Why would it benefit the Vikings to consummate a deal with Hunter before March 13?

This is all about the intricacies of the salary cap.

Hunter is going to affect the Vikings’ 2024 salary cap whether he’s on the team or not. Here’s why: Hunter’s previous contract involved void years. Minnesota pushed some of Hunter’s cap hits into the future to create more flexibility in the present.

When a contract voids, all of the stashed-away money accelerates onto that year’s salary cap in what is called a “dead-cap hit.” Hunter’s is projected to be around $15 million, which is a hefty number. The only way for the Vikings to lower that figure is to extend Hunter before March 13 — choosing again to push money into future years to provide current wiggle room.

What factors will the Vikings be considering regarding Hunter’s negotiation?

Let’s begin with age.

Hunter will turn 30 in October. A couple of years ago, Pro Football Focus’s Timo Riske studied how productivity declines over time at different positions. He found that edge rushers tend to fall off once they reach 30. Exceptions happen. Los Angeles Chargers pass rusher Khalil Mack tallied the seventh most pressures in the NFL in 2023 at 32 years old, and Baltimore Ravens pass rusher Jadaveon Clowney amassed the 12th most pressures in the NFL in 2023 at 30 years old.

Still, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has cited age curves in the past. He is programmed to consider historical data.

Another relevant factor is injury history. In August 2020, Hunter could barely use his right arm when rushing the passer. Tests indicated that he’d herniated a disc. He attempted to play through the pain and used his left arm predominantly, which, as he explained a few months ago, is what he believes led to the torn pectoral muscle that sidelined him in 2021. Those injuries raised questions about Hunter’s long-term viability, but he responded in 2022 and ‘23 with sterling availability.

That brings us to his performance. Only 180 defenders have rushed the passer on 400 snaps in the last two seasons. Hunter ranks fourth among them in sacks (27), eighth in pressures (150) and 37th in pressure rate (13.2 percent), according to TruMedia. The only NFL defenders with more sacks than Hunter since his rookie season in 2015 are Aaron Donald, Mack, T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, Chandler Jones and Cameron Jordan.

What type of contract will Hunter be looking for?

A massive one based on that level of performance.

The Athletic’s Randy Mueller recently ranked the top 150 free agents. He listed Hunter second behind Panthers edge rusher Brian Burns, who is likely to be franchise-tagged. Meaning, Hunter could be — in Mueller’s eyes, at least — the top free agent on the market.

Last offseason, 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa reset the edge-rusher market with a $34 million average annual value and $88 million fully guaranteed. In 2021, aging Bucs edge rusher Shaquil Barrett agreed to a contract worth $17 million in average annual value and $34.5 million fully guaranteed. Hunter is likely to sign for something between these two. His camp will likely seek somewhere near Bosa-level money, while teams will likely stick closer to Barrett.