The Stock on Hock

Believe It Or Not, T.J. Hockenson Is The Pillar Of The Vikings Offense

T.J. Hockenson has a load bearing role in the Minnesota Vikings offense. The offense relies, in particular, on very difficult assignments that Hockenson, uniquely, is capable of even attempting. Don't let a few of the most visible and easy-to-remember miscues trick you into thinking he is not a useful member of the Vikings.

In that light, it is a bit disappointing not to see Hockenson do more. And, on paper, that’s a ridiculous thing to say – he led the team in receiving, caught six of his eight targets and has been a more reliable blocker in Minnesota than many expected.

But the Vikings turn to him to make difficult catches on key downs. And last season, he did that. This season, he’s having a lot more trouble reeling them in. When combining drops and contested catches, this is the worst year since his rookie year in bringing in catchable balls.

Last year, he took in 82.7 percent of those accurate passes and in 2021 he took in 93.8 percent. Now, he’s at 76.9 percent and will drop a little further after the Week 6 totals are added in. Raw catch percentage – which is inversely higher this year than it ever has been – doesn’t capture this.

Part of that is because this is also the lowest average depth of target of his career, which should mean that his catch percentage would generally be higher. When accounting for the difficulty of his targets and his career performance in metrics that in some way account for difficulty, this is the second-worst year of his career as a pure pass catcher behind his rookie year.

That doesn’t mean he’s not valuable to the offense. He’s on pace for over 850 yards this year and is capable as a blocker. But the draft capital and cap space the Vikings allocate to someone like Hockenson is seemingly larger than what he can deliver.

That may just be a product of a blip in the data – a few games with an occasional disappointing snap – but until that gets corrected, it’s a valid vector of criticism. Players paid at the high end of their position (but not the highest end) are largely paid for what they can do at the margins.

In short, Hockenson has been put in a lot of tough positions – tougher positions than most players at his position. It’s a credit to him that he can even get in range of some of the passes he’s been thrown. But the positions he’s been put in and the passes he’s been thrown are a direct product of his talent level, which have been accounted for in his contract and in the play design.

It would be a reasonable point to argue that we’re expecting more out of him than is fair if he was still on his rookie contract. But he’s not.

Good players can do all the things that Hockenson can do, and he’s being paid just a little bit more than that – so he needs to be a little bit more successful than that. If Tyreek Hill were 10 percent slower, he’d still be a fantastic football player. But fans would be right to be disappointed.

For now, Hockenson’s level of play is not a catastrophe, it just stands out in a big way with Jefferson gone. And it’s too early in Hockenson’s contract to meaningfully argue that the Vikings over- or underpaid him. But it’s a present conversation.