KO's 2023 Offense - Improvement or more of the same?

A decade ago, that decision may have drawn second guessing in the moment. The broadcast would have wondered if O’Connell was being too aggressive this early in the game. But in today’s NFL, he would have been questioned for punting it away. Per Pro-Football reference there were 759 fourth-down runs or passes in 2022. In 2012, that number was only 470. This year already teams have attempted 216 fourth-down tries and 22 teams have converted at least 50% for first downs.

Through five weeks the Vikings have gone for fourth downs 11 times and converted eight. That’s more than they went for fourth down during the entire 2017 season by four attempts.

Defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who called the fourth down shots from 2019-2021 as head coach of the Miami Dolphins, said the explosion of attempts is a result of teams leaning on the data now more than ever.

“The analytics obviously has a lot to do with [the increase in fourth down attempts],” Flores said. “Why not go with the percentages?”

Of course, nobody thinks it’s as simple as looking at a fourth down probability calculator and doing whatever it says. There is a lot more that goes into it, starting before the game begins when O’Connell meets with game management coordinator Ryan Cordell before every game and talk about areas of the field and situations where they could choose to be more aggressive.

When the Vikings cross the 50-yard line, it becomes potential four-down territory. Special teams coordinator Matt Daniels consults with O’Connell about where he thinks they could try a field goal based on what he has seen in warm-ups, which is particularly relevant on the road.

“There’s a lot of sideline communication that goes into it,” Daniels said. “I’m always giving KO a make-it-versus-take-it line of where I feel good and confident for Greg [Joseph] to be able to hit a field goal. The down-and-distance plays a role in that, where we’re at in the football game, who we’re playing against, how our offense is playing against their defense and do we feel good about going for it and having a short field to defend.”

Once they have reached the point on the field where it may be a four-down situation, the menu of third down plays that they put together before the game based on down-and-distances becomes for both third and fourth down and the play calling mentality shifts on third-and-long to keep some of the intermediate plays involved.

“As the play caller Kevin knows he’s got two downs here so maybe it is a third-and-10 and maybe you call something that isn’t necessarily always trying to make sure we get all 10.”

O’Connell communicates with Cousins that he has two downs to work with so he doesn’t have to force the ball into a bad place on third down or feel the need to risk a sack by holding onto the ball longer than he wants.

“I think Kirk [Cousins] needs to know if I view it as a four down mentality, which may help with his decision making,” O’Connell said. “If it’s a third-and-9 and we’re kind of in that [four down] area, I’d love him to be aggressive and try to get it if there is a progression there that’s there but [rather] than trying to force it maybe just putting the ball in play, checking it down, using his legs and getting it to that more manageable number so then our whole playbook is at our disposal, including kind of the rest of our situational plan that we’ve kind of practiced and then we can just rely on the execution in that moment.”

And then it comes down to the actual decision. O’Connell has the analytics in mind but he’s factoring in how his team is performing and his sense for how much a conversion could swing the game.