Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total

comet52
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Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total Sept 5, 2023 5:44:40 GMT -6 via mobile Reignman and kmillard like this

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Post by comet52 on Sept 5, 2023 5:44:40 GMT -6

I can't believe spence didn't pick us to go undefeated. What happened buddy?!

I chose 8-9 wins. It just seems like the franchise's identity is to be around .500. Kirk's identity? Around .500. The Wilves? "Just be around .500, no worse. The marketing department will do the rest".

The experts all say we're going to be our true .500 selves this year, not our fraudulent 13-4 selves like last year. The average win total in the betting market is 8.7. If we win 9 the league is going to deduct 30% of one win on general principle, and as part of fulfilling its partnership agreement with FanDuel Sportsbook.

Then there's the fan base. When I was young I read the Tao Te Ching (how's that for a never heard in this forum before reference? *whistle*

). A passage always stuck with me: "It is atop disaster that good fortune perches, and beneath good fortune that disaster crouches". This is the mindset of Viking fans in a nutshell. It's not a championship mindset (sorry Reignman). No matter how good things look, a disaster is always imminent. It screams .500. The fans are Taoists, apparently.

Anyway even at 9-8, the newfangled everyone-makes-the-playoffs deal means we probably will get a road trip in January to Dallas or San Fran where we can enjoy getting thrashed like usual. Think of it as a chance to spend $29.99 on a Vikings 2023 Wildcard Losers commemorative ballcap. Wear it loud and proud!

Last Edit: Sept 5, 2023 5:52:58 GMT -6 by comet52

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SiteWolf Team Captain Posts: 1,983 Likes: 1,419 Fan Since: virtually the beginning	Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total Sept 5, 2023 5:56:42 GMT -6 suncoastvike likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by SiteWolf on Sept 5, 2023 5:56:42 GMT -6 I'd rather our 10th win be in the 1st round of the playoffs than our 4th loss be in the same round. 10 wins may feel disappointing only in thinking of 13 wins last year

suncoastvike
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Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total Sept 5, 2023 6:15:40 GMT -6 Reignman likes this

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Post by suncoastvike on Sept 5, 2023 6:15:40 GMT -6

Sept 4, 2023 21:50:15 GMT -6 Reignman said:

Without injuries? Ceiling 11-5, floor 7-10. They haven't given us a reason to believe they'll win more than or fewer than 9 games. The offense is almost unchanged, and the defense is a huge question mark. None of the young guys stood out in the offseason as anything special, and the depth is scary at best. We're not going to have the same injury luck, 4th quarter luck, and one score game luck that we did last year. That's just not possible, and last year was a 9-8 team if you normalize those categories.

I think teams are going to pound the ball down our throat, when they're not throwing it down our throat. Flores is just going to make sure it happens quicker. I have a feeling we'll somehow end up with the 31st ranked defense again, but this time with the highest pressure rate, if for no other reason, because that just seems like something only the Vikings could do. Something tells me Ivan Pace Jr will look very much like a UDFA as a starter.

And the offense will be just meh enough to make those with low expectations think it's amazing, and the rest of us believe it's underachieving in that 8-12th range. If we do plan to run the ball a ton more out of 12 personnel despite 73% of our cap tied up in the passing game, and a RB room that fuels my nightmares, it'll be closer to that 12th range. I'm already wondering if it was Josh Oliver who should've received the market setting contract. *skeptic*

Sept 4, 2023 13:31:26 GMT -6 spence said:

At Eagles, vs 49ers, and Chiefs.

So you got us down for another fraudulent season huh? *whistle*

Firing up the engine in the Ole dark side wagon before game one. That's our Reignman.
Can't dispute much of what you said but also can't quit hoping for at least a little while.

If being a Viking fan was easy ~ everyone would do it.

whoskmoon
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Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total Sept 5, 2023 8:01:00 GMT -6 via mobile Reignman and kmillard like this

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Post by whoskmoon on Sept 5, 2023 8:01:00 GMT -6

Don't really care how many wins we have in the regular season if it amounts to 0 wins in the playoffs.

That being said, the Vikings have the best WR Corp in the NFL headlined by the best WR overall and alongside him the best WR to not hit 700 yards in 3 seasons, and a rookie who is already a lock to catch 1k yards despite not catching a single pass in a real game yet. They have a top 5 TE and another overpa...great blocking TE. On top of that, their Oline is full of continuity. We have RBs too.

On defense, the Vikings lost their best interior lineman and the 4th best pass rusher in the NFL last year, but they replaced them with a Packers cast-off and a part time pass rusher who had a half a sack last season so we are good there. PFF's 4th highest graded CB walked in FAs, but the Vikings replaced him with a guy who is certain to be better, because we signed him and that's how that works. The linebackers are younger, except for Hicks who just oozes experience everytime he leaves his man open by 5 yards. Oh and Flores! He is the best DC hire since Donatell was going into last season!

With all of these great addit...additions by subtraction, we are sure to win it all.

Last Edit: Sept 5, 2023 8:01:34 GMT -6 by whoskmoon

diehardtwinsfan
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Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total Sept 5, 2023 8:08:58 GMT -6 Reignman likes this

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Post by diehardtwinsfan on Sept 5, 2023 8:08:58 GMT -6

I picked 10 wins. Warren Ludford went with 11 over at DN. I think the consensus of 8 or 9 is a bit low given how weak the division is. I don't really buy into GB or Chicago. Detroit I think could sweep us, but then again, I could see them not being as good as people think too. To me it's more a question of how much KOC improved and how much of a difference Flores can make.

I'm going to assume that the luck we got last year is in fact luck and not something we can consistently reproduce. I do buy into the idea that Cousins is shedding some of those narrative; but expecting him to do it as often as he did last season is not realistic. Bottom line is we need to have more games like GB week 1 and a whole lot less games like Dallas and Philly.

Will
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Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total Sept 5, 2023 10:27:11 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

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Post by Will on Sept 5, 2023 10:27:11 GMT -6

Sept 4, 2023 21:50:15 GMT -6 Reignman said:

I think teams are going to pound the ball down our throat, when they're not throwing it down our throat.

The vocal people in this thread are skeptical, and yet 2/3 fans so far have the Vikings at 10 or more wins. Homers! Reignman is correct that injuries are a huge factor in each season's win total. Last year, the Vikings were fortunate early in the season and less fortunate late in the season. Z. Smith was hobbled and less effective in the 2nd half; the O-line did not recover from the Bradbury and O'Neil injuries. Would the playoff game have been different with them healthy?

Like whoskmoon, I prefer playoff wins to a great regular season record. I chose 10 wins, (yes, I'm a homer too), and I hope the young talent on defense is healthy and more experienced come playoff time. And if Bradbury and Ingram don't suck, the Vikings offense could be very good. A top five offense and an aggressive defense would make each playoff game exciting, and maybe the Vikings can hang with the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys.

KO was a rookie Head Coach and play-caller last year. Somehow, they won 13 games with a weak defense and an offense that stalled too often. Could it be that the team is stronger and more resilient with KO than Zimmer? KO is likely to be better this year at game planning, play calls, and in game adjustments. What if Cousins is better in Year 2 as well? What if JJ, TJ, KJ, Oliver and Addison form a great passing attack, and what if the run game is more consistent with Oliver, Mattison, Chandler, and co.? Chandler has 17 games to get better at picking up blitzes and being a 3rd down back who makes guys miss and picks up 1st downs. Last year, Cook seemed to have lost that ability to make that first guy miss on many 3rd downs. The offense really could surprise and be in the top five. Of course, if injuries or weakness on the IOL lead to Cousins with broken ribs, then the top five possibility goes poof.

I'm not as concerned about the IDL getting run over. Phillips, Tonga, and Lowry are solid, so I think the run defense will be fine against most teams. It's the mobile, running QBs that have challenged the Vikings for decades. The inside Linebackers could surprise or they could be out of position and get gashed. And the Safeties, led by Smith, might be very effective under Flores. I do think Hunter, Davenport, Wonnum, and Jones are better than acknowledged. They will get pressure and they have the speed to contain QBs. With many blitzers, we may be surprised by the sacks, fumbles, and turnovers they get.

I'm more concerned about giving up big plays and about CB health and experience. Compared to the last few years, it sounds like slot corner will not be a glaring weakness. It is outside Corner in single coverage where the Vikings could get burned. Will teams like KC, Philly, and Detroit gash the aggressive D and its less experienced Corners? We'll see!

spence Franchise Player Posts: 3,425 Likes: 986	Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total Sept 5, 2023 10:34:47 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by spence on Sept 5, 2023 10:34:47 GMT -6 Sept 5, 2023 8:01:00 GMT -6 whoskmoon said: Don't really care how many wins we have in the regular season if it amounts to 0 wins in the playoffs. They're correlated
	Spence's updated s*** list: TAFKASP Raptorman bonecrusher On thin ice: whoskmoon ball99

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,585 Likes: 31,505 Fan Since: 1998 Member is Online	Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total Sept 5, 2023 19:38:40 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Sept 5, 2023 19:38:40 GMT -6 Some others: Vikings.com - NFL Power Rankings: Vikings Begin 2023 in 15 to 21 Range

Reignman
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Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total Sept 6, 2023 18:27:59 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Sept 6, 2023 18:27:59 GMT -6

Sept 5, 2023 10:27:11 GMT -6 Will said:

Reignman is correct that injuries are a huge factor in each season's win total. Last year, the Vikings were fortunate early in the season and less fortunate late in the season. Z. Smith was hobbled and less effective in the 2nd half; the O-line did not recover from the Bradbury and O'Neil injuries. Would the playoff game have been different with them healthy?

Yeah that's a good point. The Vikings got off to a 8-1 start with everyone healthy and Z doing his thing. Then they finished 5-4 (including the playoff game). That falls right in line with my 9-8 prediction because I think we're a lot closer to that 5-4 team than that fraudulent 8-1 team, and not just in terms of the calendar.

Sept 4, 2023 21:52:54 GMT -6 spence said:

That almost makes some sense.

Almost? Says the guy who predicted 14-3 with no explanation at how he arrived there, other than he knows everyone recognizes him as the resident homer. One of the more reasonable homers at that too, to comet52 point that you didn't say 20-0.

Sept 5, 2023 2:02:23 GMT -6 winatnoon said:

Best post of the year as it is well written, organized, funny and……accurate!!! Good job!!!

Mission accomplished. *lol*

Sept 5, 2023 5:44:40 GMT -6 comet52 said:

Then there's the fan base. When I was young I read the Tao Te Ching (how's that for a never heard in this forum before reference? *whistle*

). A passage always stuck with me: "It is atop disaster that good fortune perches, and beneath good fortune that disaster crouches". This is the mindset of Viking fans in a nutshell.

That sounds like the Vikings in a nutshell. They have disappointing years when expectations are high following unexpectedly good years (1999, 2019, 2018, 2023 etc). And the only exceptionally good years they've had in recent memory, were unexpected (1998, 2009, 2017, 2022 etc). If the pattern continues, 2023 should just be another season to forget.

Sept 5, 2023 8:01:00 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

On top of that, their Oline is full of continuity.

Ohhh I see what you did there

.

Sept 5, 2023 5:56:42 GMT -6 SiteWolf said:

I'd rather our 10th win be in the 1st round of the playoffs than our 4th loss be in the same round.

That would certainly make the team less fraudulent. It's not uncommon for 10 win teams to win a playoff game, whereas it's less common for a 13 win team to go one-and-done.

                W-L   WIN%   1-N-DONE  PCT
10 win teams   74-119 .383   66/125   52.8%
13 win teams   70-47  .598   21/58    36.2%

Sept 5, 2023 10:27:11 GMT -6 Will said:

The vocal people in this thread are skeptical, and yet 2/3 fans so far have the Vikings at 10 or more wins. Homers!

To be fair, when have the homers been right? According to the empty trophy case ... never. *lol*

But yeah, those of us who are ~~negative~~ skeptical are the unreasonable ones. *coffee*

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

estang
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Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total Sept 7, 2023 11:08:28 GMT -6

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Post by estang on Sept 7, 2023 11:08:28 GMT -6

Sept 4, 2023 19:29:19 GMT -6 winatnoon said:

Cleveland, Bradbury, Ingram, Lowry, Tonga, Phillips. We are mediocre, at best, in the trenches on both sides. We may have the worst interiors in the NFL on both sides. Gonna be hard to overcome this complete lack of talent in our interiors. I say 5-12.

I have similar concerns but think 7-10, even with Cousins starting all 17 games. If he misses time, it's going to be incredibly bad.

I hope I'm wrong!

Last Edit: Sept 7, 2023 11:08:56 GMT -6 by estang

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Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total Sept 7, 2023 20:12:15 GMT -6

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Post by Funkytown on Sept 7, 2023 20:12:15 GMT -6

NFL execs rank NFC teams: Big belief in Eagles, 49ers and yes, the Lions by Mike Sando

8. Minnesota Vikings

Votes: 6-5-9-9-10-8 | Avg: 7.83 | Median: 8.5

Seven of the eight teams ranked lower than Minnesota have unsettled quarterback situations. Kirk Cousins gives the Vikings stability there.

“Their defense was old, slow and played with a lot of cushion last year, not a good combination,” one exec said. “Their solution: Hire Brian Flores and get rid of the old, slow players. They will get better on defense or they will have to outscore people.”

Cousins finished last season with eight fourth-quarter comeback victories, tied for most in an NFL season since 1960, according to Pro Football Reference. The Vikings were 11-0 in one-score games, including 5-0 in games decided by three or fewer points.

“Adding Jordan Addison should give you more firepower, but you are offsetting that with the loss of Dalvin Cook,” one of the execs said. “Are you throwing it more with Cousins? Is that where you want to be?”

Link:

theathletic.com/4840501/2023/09/07/nfc-rankings-eagles-49ers-lions-nfl-executives/

kmillard Rookie Posts: 250 Likes: 273	Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total Sept 7, 2023 23:26:05 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by kmillard on Sept 7, 2023 23:26:05 GMT -6 I think they finish 3rd in the division behind DET and GB.

Just Me
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Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total Sept 8, 2023 10:31:19 GMT -6

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Post by Just Me on Sept 8, 2023 10:31:19 GMT -6

Sept 5, 2023 5:44:40 GMT -6 comet52 said:

Then there's the fan base. When I was young I read the Tao Te Ching (how's that for a never heard in this forum before reference? *whistle*

). (Emphasis by Just Me)

In your defense, it was you who previously posted the reference. :)

I actually think they'll win 11 games this season. *govikes*

There is no "me" in T-E-A-M... Wait a minute...

VikingsVictorious Pro Bowl Posts: 2,254 Likes: 698	Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total Sept 8, 2023 11:02:14 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by VikingsVictorious on Sept 8, 2023 11:02:14 GMT -6 The Vikings will have 12 regular season wins and 4 playoff wins for a total of 16.

comet52
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Final Prediction: Vikings 2023 Win Total Sept 8, 2023 17:44:01 GMT -6

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Post by comet52 on Sept 8, 2023 17:44:01 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2023 10:31:19 GMT -6 Just Me said:

Sept 5, 2023 5:44:40 GMT -6 comet52 said:

Then there's the fan base. When I was young I read the Tao Te Ching (how's that for a never heard in this forum before reference? *whistle*

). (Emphasis by Just Me)

In your defense, it was you who previously posted the reference. :)

I actually think they'll win 11 games this season. *govikes*

Ha, good catch! This forum must have a search feature that really works, though I've never been able to locate it. I'll keep the Lao Tzu references coming. I'm sure there's more about the Vikings in that 2,400 year old book.