2024 Draft - QB Watch

Table refreshed after Week 0 action:



What I saw during Week 0:

- Sam Hartman played well vs a "cupcake" opponent in Navy. He's played well vs "cupcakes" in the past during his time at Wake Forest. What I'm more interested in is how he fares during Notre Dame's three big 2023 games: vs #3 Ohio St, vs #6 USC and @ #9 Clemson. He's melted down in big moments during his time in Winston-Salem and he's getting another chance to shine on a big stage in 2023 as Notre Dame does appear to be a really solid overall team with a shot at the Playoffs. He's at the top of the Day 3 logjam, but I'm not moving him up to Day 2 until I see more vs better opponents.

- Caleb Williams is as-advertised. He had some "ho-hum" throws and TD's against a lesser opponent, and then he had this: a dropped snap and then he just flicks his wrist for a bomb down the field on his back foot that puts USC back on top after the Spartans tied it at 7:



He's one of - if not the - best at improvisational throws in the Draft class, and it's plays like that one that remind people of Patrick Mahomes.

- I really like what I saw of Kurtis Rourke (Ohio) in the 1st quarter and it's a shame he sustained a lower body injury right at the end of the 1st qtr because Ohio would have likely pullled out that win if he played. He tore an ACL last November so the HC was very hesitant to put him back in, even though it was reported that Rourke was upset that the coaching staff didn't allow him to continue. I'm keeping him on the list until we know more about his injury in the coming weeks.

QB's Next-up:

- Kyle McCord, Ohio St: it's Monday before Ohio St's season opener @ Indiana this Saturday and the Buckeyes have yet to name their starting QB. The latest is that Ryan Day will use both QB's during the game. If McCord can't win the job outright, he can't be on the list. 

- Tyler Van Dyke, Miami (FL): he started the 2022 season as a 1st Rd prospect, but quickly faded and was actually benched in the 3rd qtr during a late-September home loss to Middle Tennessee St. When you're benched at home vs a non-Power 5 school, you're not getting drafted and you need more time at the college level. It was smart of him to give it another shot in 2023, but he has to earn his place back on the Top 25 list.

Week 1 QB Matchups to Watch:

Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) @ #17 TCU: it's time for "Prime Time's" son to prove he's ready for "prime time" College Football. This isn't the Atlantic Sun Conference at the FCS level; this is BIG XII FBS football on the road against a Top 20 ranked team. Several 2024 Draft lists have Sanders in their Top 10 - I'm not ready to put him there until I see something on an FBS football field. 

Jeff Sims (Nebraska) @ Minnesota: Sims is a transfer from Georgia Tech and I liked what I saw in their season opener vs Clemson in 2022, but his season got away from him pretty quickly after that. It's a fresh start for both him and Nebraska who has endured a run of more 1-score losses the past couple seasons than the Vikings had 1-score wins in 2022. If Sims can put together a bowl-eligible season for the Cornhuskers in the BIG10, he'll make himself a decent prospect in the 2024 Draft with his size. 

Drake Maye (North Carolina) @ Spencer Rattler (South Carolina): game played in Charlotte: Maye is a consensus Top 5 pick in the 2024 Draft, but I think it's possible he can be passed if the QB's behind him play well. He was outdueled by Oregon's Bo Nix in the Holiday Bowl to end the season, but he could put a big stamp on that QB2 ranking with a big win vs a good opponent to open the 2023 season. On the other side, Spencer Rattler was one of the hottest QB's to end the 2022 season and his performance vs Tennessee (the game where Hooker went down) was one of the best performances of the season. I'm surprised Rattler didn't declare last year because the wind was at his back heading into the 2023 Draft season and with no QB's shining during the pre-Draft process before the Combine/Pro Days, he had the All-Star Bowl circuit to himself. We'll see if he can carry last season's final stretch performance into the 2023 season.

Grayson McCall (Coastal Carolina) @ UCLA: this is an opportunity for an "under-the-radar" type of QB prospect to shine against a quality opponent on the road. Coastal Carolina doesn't necessarily have to win, but if McCall has continue the type of play he's had since the 2020 COVID season (where he first popped-up on the national radar) against a good Power 5 school, it will only help to solidify his 2024 Draft status. 

Jayden Daniels (LSU) @ Jordan Travis (FSU): probably the premier QB matchup for Week 1 as you have two programs ranked in the Top 10 going head-to-head at a neutral site (Orlando, FL). Last year this game was held in New Orleans (favoring LSU) with FSU winning a thriller, and this year the game is being held in Florida, giving FSU more home fans. Both of these QB's had really good 2022 seasons and both have their eye on getting to Day 1 draft status. Sunday night on ABC - should be a fun matchup. 

Riley Leonard (Duke) vs #Clemson: I think Leonard is a sneaky-good 2024 Draft QB who is pretty much Daniel Jones 2.0; good-sized QB from Duke with a solid arm who can also run. He's got a big test ahead of him vs a very good Clemson DL with at least 2 DL who will be drafted in the 2024 Draft (Tyler Davis & Ruke Orhorhoro). I think Duke has a shot to hang with Clemson and Leonard is a good reason why - let's see how he does on Monday night. 

JJ....I am willing it

so Caleb William's stats vs Nevada - he went 18/24 for 319 yds and 5 TD's with 42 yds on 3 carries. Caleb was pulled at the end of the 3rd quarter. Williams has now played 2 tune up games at home and has 9 TD's, 0 INT's, and 3 sacks. I watched a bit of this game and there is no doubt he is special, and you have to keep in mind his stats are done in 2 1/2 - 3 quarters play/game thus far. I can't wait to see how the rest of his college season plays out.

Interesting note, the PAC - 12 teams all won their openers yesterday with exception of Oregon St who plays today. By far, Colorado's win over TCU was the most impressive since the other games were just tune ups. Still the PAC - 12 has a lot of talent and the winner should get a college playoff spot IMO.

Updated table after Week 1:



Risers/Fallers:

Risers:
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado: I'm sure everyone has seen the headlines & statline by now; just an impressive FBS debut for Sanders who I'm vaulting all the way into the Day 2 group. It's just one week and he needs to prove that he can be consistent week-in and week-out before he gets into early Day 2/Day 1 consideration, but it was a very impressive performance nonetheless.

Cam Ward, Washington St: just a slight move up in the late Day 2 category, but he looks to be improved from last season. If he can continue this type of performance vs Wisconsin in Week 2, it's possible he can move up to the early Day 2 discussion.

Sam Hartman, Notre Dame: I'm not the biggest Hartman fan and he's mostly moving up into the late Day 2 category mainly because he has looked better than nearly everyone in Day 3. The Fighting Irish have a decent road test this week @ NC St, so let's see if Hartman can continue his great start.

Fallers:
Jeff Sims, Nebraska: the stage was set for Nebraska to start the turnaround with a Conference road win to start the season and although the loss isn't 100% completely on Sims, his performance was forgettable. In a week where you had QB's putting together really good 2nd half performances (Sanders & FSU's Travis come to mind), Sims basically crapped-the-bed in the 2nd half and allowed the Golden Gophers to steal that win.

Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina: without some weapons on offense that are now in the NFL, the success of the Chanticleers will fall more on McCall in 2023 and although it was always going to be an uphill climb to beat UCLA @ the Rose Bowl, McCall's performance was one of the worst of his college career, which is not good when all eyes are on you. This is the first time McCall has thrown multiple INT's in the same game and he's been relegated to Day 3 territory.

Week 1 Notes (Games I Watched: Nebraska @ Minnesota; Louisville vs Ga Tech; Colorado @ TCU, UNC vs South Carolina; FSU vs LSU, Clemson @ Duke):
- The more impressive thing to me about Shedeur Sanders' performance early on Saturday was the fact that he didn't force anything: in the 1st half he didn't throw down the field much and took what the TCU defense was giving him. You saw multiple Colorado drives of 10+ plays each because he was moving the chains vs. getting large "chunk" gains. And in the late 3rd/early 4th when it was back-n-forth, he took more downfield shots. There are a few things that I would have like to have seen (didn't see too much athleticism and still have arm strength concerns), but he's certainly well-coached and it showed.
- Similar to Sanders, FSU's Jordan Travis was very poised in his matchup with a very good LSU defense. With the FSU running game not doing much, Travis moved chains and had some incredible downfield throws that were hauled-in by some really good WR's (Mich St transfer Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson). Unlike Sanders, Travis displayed it all: athleticism, poise in the big moment, buying time, solid arm, accuracy, and he certainly looks like a more complete QB than he did last year. If he continues this type of performance, I think he definitely has a shot for a Day 1 selection.
- On the flipside of that FSU/LSU game, LSU's Jayden Daniels completely folded like a cheap suit in the 2nd half. He looked good in the 1st half as he drove LSU up and down the field, but when FSU took the lead, unlike the back-n-forth action we had in the Colorado/TCU matchup, FSU and Travis stepped on the gas and Jayden and the LSU offense hit the brakes. He's had some big moments in pressure-packed games (the win vs 'Bama last year was one) so he does have the ability, but he has to be more consistent for the entire 60 minutes.
- Duke's Riley Leonard reminds me so much of Daniel Jones; they have nearly the same physical frame and athleticism (Jones is slightly bigger) and both have similar-looking games: not much down the field but more in the short/intermediate range. What I liked is that Leonard didn't make any mistakes and force anything - he took what was given, even with Clemson defenders in his face and his 44-yd TD run was very impressive. I also liked passes I saw to the opposite hash: good velocity, so I know he has the arm strength - I just need to see some more accuracy down the field.
- I thought South Carolina's Spencer Rattler looked like the better of the two QB's in the "Battle of the Carolinas" matchup Saturday night with UNC's Drake Maye. Rattler's OL completely fell apart in the 2nd half and he had to take a whopping 9 sacks and had UNC defenders in his face as soon as he snapped the ball and the fact that he didn't throw any INT's and still had a 77% COMP rate and a 9.1 Y/A (meaning it wasn't all dink-n-dunk) is impressive. Maye looks exactly the same when I saw him last in the Holiday Bowl vs Oregon's Bo Nix: very good in the short/intermediate range, but I didn't see the arm down the field and he made at least 1 ill-advised pass (INT).

Stat Takeaways:
- Drake Maye is only 1 of 3 QB's in my Top 25 list that threw multiple INT's (Grayson McCall and Jeff Sims). 
- Caleb Williams already has 9 TD passes in 2 games and will probably have 10+ TD passes by the time Cousins takes his first snap in a regular season game for the Vikes.
- Tulane's Michael Pratt had a ridiculous Week 1 statline of completing just 14 passes, but having 294 yds and 4 TD's. 
- Although Shedeur Sanders threw for 500+ yds, he took 4 sacks and Cam Ward ended up with more total yards with 491 compared to Sanders' 478.

Week 2 Matchups to Watch:
- Sam Hartman (Notre Dame) @ NC State: Hartman has looked the part vs Navy and Tenn St, but let's see how he does on the road
- Jeff Sims (Nebraska) @ Shedeur Sanders (Colorado): the pressure here is more on Sims as he didn't look good in Week 1, and it won't be easy in Boulder with all the "prime time" hype for this one. On the flipside, Sanders was the talk of the football world this past weekend, but can he do it week-in and week-out? 
- Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) @ Michael Pratt (Tulane): a really nice mid-afternoon Saturday game involving some solid 2024 QB prospects. Similar to Grayson McCall at Coastal Carolina, much of the success of Tulane's offense will fall more on Pratt than last season when he could hand off to Tyjae Spears who's now in the NFL. Pratt did lead the Green Wave offense to the big Cotton Bowl win vs USC in the closing moments and he had a really good arm, but I want to see him be able to lead drives and move chains consistently and have more touch on his passes (he did throw lasers on short passes last season). 
- Tyler Van Dyke (Miami, FL) vs Texas A&M: this game last year @ College Station was the beginning of Van Dyke's slide right down draft boards and ultimately to the bench and he really needs a big home win vs a solid SEC opponent to get back into being draftable. 
- Quinn Ewers (Texas) @ Jalen Milroe (Alabama): I'm not a big Quinn Ewers fan from watching him in 2022, but if he's able to put together a big game @ 'Bama, I might come around. Ewers was knocked out of this game in Austin during Week 2 of the 2022 season so he'll be looking to complete a Texas win this time. Milroe had a solid Week 1, albeit vs a "cupcake", so let's see what a step up in competition looks like. 
- Cam Ward (Wash St) vs Wisconsin: I saw Cam Ward for the first time in this game at Camp Randall last year and liked what I saw as the Cougars pulled-off the upset. I think he can be even better at home this time around. 

wow, looks like we may have another Archie Manning/LaVar Ball situation. Caleb Williams' dad says his son may not enter the draft if he doesn't like where he'd likely go in the draft.....even going on to say the draft is constructed backwards because it's the bad teams picking first.......umm, yes, that's part of the point

Recently on the SKOR North Purple Daily podcast, Tyler Forness (who writes for the Vikings Wire site and is a solid follow for Draft prospects) mentioned he has UNC's Drake Maye as his QB1 for the 2024 Draft.

His take on Maye starts at the 16-min mark:



Forness mentions that Caleb Williams tries to make SportsCenter highlights way too often and doesn't take the easier throws the defense is giving him, whereas Maye's game is different in that he does take the easy throws. Forness also compares Maye to Justin Herbert in terms of size and ability.

I've only watch 2 complete Drake Maye games so far (2022 Holiday Bowl vs Oregon and Bo Nix) and this past weekend vs South Carolina, and both times I've been slightly disappointed as I'm not quite seeing QB2 material. I love the physical frame Maye has and that he has the ability to move around and move chains w/ his legs, but I'm not seeing the the rocket arm I've been reading about, or great progression/reading of defenses pre/post snap...I'm seeing a QB who takes sees a RB open in the flat and gets him the ball. I'm not seeing Justin Herbert like Forness does...at least not yet anyway.

But in terms of QB1 for the 2024 Draft, it's just an example that not everyone out there is completely sold on Caleb Williams being the 1st overall selection...

Curious, do you think you and I could do this and make just as good of content?