Post by MidwinterViking on Aug 14, 2023 19:21:47 GMT -6
53 man projections are the thing to do after a pre-season game. Here is my best guess along with the players and questions I think are most interesting.
In addition to a roster breakdown, I’m also calling out guys for special teams. I think this lets me look at the position players a bit more clearly.
OFFENSE
Quarterback – 3
Kirk Cousins, Nick Mullens, Jarren Hall
Interesting Question: Is Jarren Hall worth developing? If the team thinks he has even high end backup potential, then I think they have to keep him on the 53 man roster. Reality is there aren’t 64 functional QBs in the NFL, so if Hall is one, a team will claim him. This is really interesting, because my count on offense says there’s only space for one of Hall or a 6th WR – and WRs are very deep.
Wide Receiver – 4 (+1 Special Teams)
Justin Jefferson, KJ Osborn, Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor, (Jalen Reagor – Punt Return)
I’m not going to overreact on Nailor just yet; the 8/12 press conference update sounds like Nailor should come back and if he’s back, I’ll go with the guy who has done it in a game.
Interesting Question: if you like a 6th WR, great, I won’t disagree, but who comes off the roster? If they add a 6th WR, that person is probably also a special teams gunner, so slow guys are out (sorry N’Keal Harry and Thayer Thomas).
Running Back – 3 (+2 Special Teams)
Alexander Mattison, Ty Chandler, DeWayne McBride, (Kene Nwangwu – Kick Return, CJ Ham)
I’m not sold on McBride, but I’m also not sold on Abraham Smith. If the Vikings run a 1-2 RB combo like last year, the RB3 won’t be needed immediately as long as Mattison and Chandler are healthy, it would be easy to switch out McBride with another name on cut down day.
Interesting question: do the Vikings keep Nwangwu as a kick returner? Yes. Here’s the reality, if a kickoff only goes the 5, that’s a chance a team wants for a return. I think the impact of fair catching kickoffs will be minimal because a team will always gamble a few yards of starting field position for an explosive play.
Tight End – 2 (+1 Special Teams)
TJ Hockenson, Josh Oliver, (Johnny Mundt)
Easiest position to project, no questions.
Offensive Line – 9
Starters: Christian Darrisaw, Ezra Cleveland, Garret Bradbury, Ed Ingram, Brian O’Niell
Backups: Oli Udoh, Austin Schlottmann, Blake Brandel, Chris Reed
Health Question: Reed is my choice for a backup guard (he was a terrible center, but a stronger history at guard), but is he healthy? If he’s not, I have no idea. I don't buy Brandle as a guard, practicing there seems like planning for a worst case contingency. If not Reed, pencil in the swing guard of your choice.
DEFENSE
Interior Defensive line – 6
Harrison Phillips, Khyiris Tonga, Dean Lowry, Jaquelin Roy, Esezi Otomewo, Jonathan Bullard
Interesting Player: the top 5 seem straight forward to me, however if there is a guy you really want to squeeze onto the roster at another position, Bullard might be one to come off depending on the DT/DE/Edge mix Flores uses.
Edge – 4 (+1 Special Teams)
Danielle Hunter, Marcus Davenport, DJ Wonnum, Andre Carter, (Patrick Jones II)
So you think Luiji Vilain had a good first game? Me to. But who are you taking off the list? Right now the reality is that Wonnum was a healthy sit for that game along with Hunter and Davenport, so he seems safe. Carter won’t be running around on kick coverage. But that leads to:
Interesting question: Will DJ Wonnum be traded? He has a way higher cap cost than Vilain or Jones II and enough sack production to draw interest, if you really want Vilain on the team, that might be the path.
Linebacker – 3 (+1 Special Teams)
Jordan Hicks, Brian Asamoah, Ivan Pace Jr, (Troy Dye)
It’s worth calling out Dye’s contributions on special teams, 3rd most snaps on the team last year.
Cornerback – 4 (+1 Special Teams)
Byron Murphy, Mekhi Blackmon, Akayleb Evans, Andrew Booth Jr., (Kalon Barnes)
The 5th CB has to be a special teams guy. Joejuan Williams wasn’t that in New England since 2020, if Joejuan wants to make the roster, he might have to jump Booth. I put Barnes on purely for special teams gunner speed, this is not an endorsement that he’s the 5th best CB.
Safety – 4 (+1 Special Teams)
Harrison Smith, Josh Metellus, Cam Bynum, Lewis Cine, (Jay Ward)
I think 5 total safites make sense with as many 3 safety plays as the Vikings ran.
Specialist – 3
Greg Joseph, Ryan Right, Andrew DePaola
All together my special teams unit is (other position players would still have a role)
Tacklers and Blockers: CJ Ham, Patrick Jones II, Troy Dye, Johnny Mundt
Fast Guys: Jay Ward, Kalon Barnes
Returners: Kene Nwangwu, Jalen Reagor
Changes I thought most about:
Can I get a 6th WR? There’s a lot of good ones in camp
Did I successfully replace Kris Boyd on special teams? In 2022, when you include snaps from all three phases, Boyed played more than Alexander Mattison, Brian Asamoah, and Khyiris Tonga.
Are 6 DL are really necessary? I’m not sure I need a full set of starters and backups for a 3-4 base DL.
If I did take off Bullard or Jarren Hall, where would I add another guy? Probably CB, this only has 4 CBs, so things would get risky fast when / if there is an injury. I still have 10 DBs, playing 3 safeties and having Jay Ward to support coverage is why I went the way I did.
In addition to a roster breakdown, I’m also calling out guys for special teams. I think this lets me look at the position players a bit more clearly.
OFFENSE
Quarterback – 3
Kirk Cousins, Nick Mullens, Jarren Hall
Interesting Question: Is Jarren Hall worth developing? If the team thinks he has even high end backup potential, then I think they have to keep him on the 53 man roster. Reality is there aren’t 64 functional QBs in the NFL, so if Hall is one, a team will claim him. This is really interesting, because my count on offense says there’s only space for one of Hall or a 6th WR – and WRs are very deep.
Wide Receiver – 4 (+1 Special Teams)
Justin Jefferson, KJ Osborn, Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor, (Jalen Reagor – Punt Return)
I’m not going to overreact on Nailor just yet; the 8/12 press conference update sounds like Nailor should come back and if he’s back, I’ll go with the guy who has done it in a game.
Interesting Question: if you like a 6th WR, great, I won’t disagree, but who comes off the roster? If they add a 6th WR, that person is probably also a special teams gunner, so slow guys are out (sorry N’Keal Harry and Thayer Thomas).
Running Back – 3 (+2 Special Teams)
Alexander Mattison, Ty Chandler, DeWayne McBride, (Kene Nwangwu – Kick Return, CJ Ham)
I’m not sold on McBride, but I’m also not sold on Abraham Smith. If the Vikings run a 1-2 RB combo like last year, the RB3 won’t be needed immediately as long as Mattison and Chandler are healthy, it would be easy to switch out McBride with another name on cut down day.
Interesting question: do the Vikings keep Nwangwu as a kick returner? Yes. Here’s the reality, if a kickoff only goes the 5, that’s a chance a team wants for a return. I think the impact of fair catching kickoffs will be minimal because a team will always gamble a few yards of starting field position for an explosive play.
Tight End – 2 (+1 Special Teams)
TJ Hockenson, Josh Oliver, (Johnny Mundt)
Easiest position to project, no questions.
Offensive Line – 9
Starters: Christian Darrisaw, Ezra Cleveland, Garret Bradbury, Ed Ingram, Brian O’Niell
Backups: Oli Udoh, Austin Schlottmann, Blake Brandel, Chris Reed
Health Question: Reed is my choice for a backup guard (he was a terrible center, but a stronger history at guard), but is he healthy? If he’s not, I have no idea. I don't buy Brandle as a guard, practicing there seems like planning for a worst case contingency. If not Reed, pencil in the swing guard of your choice.
DEFENSE
Interior Defensive line – 6
Harrison Phillips, Khyiris Tonga, Dean Lowry, Jaquelin Roy, Esezi Otomewo, Jonathan Bullard
Interesting Player: the top 5 seem straight forward to me, however if there is a guy you really want to squeeze onto the roster at another position, Bullard might be one to come off depending on the DT/DE/Edge mix Flores uses.
Edge – 4 (+1 Special Teams)
Danielle Hunter, Marcus Davenport, DJ Wonnum, Andre Carter, (Patrick Jones II)
So you think Luiji Vilain had a good first game? Me to. But who are you taking off the list? Right now the reality is that Wonnum was a healthy sit for that game along with Hunter and Davenport, so he seems safe. Carter won’t be running around on kick coverage. But that leads to:
Interesting question: Will DJ Wonnum be traded? He has a way higher cap cost than Vilain or Jones II and enough sack production to draw interest, if you really want Vilain on the team, that might be the path.
Linebacker – 3 (+1 Special Teams)
Jordan Hicks, Brian Asamoah, Ivan Pace Jr, (Troy Dye)
It’s worth calling out Dye’s contributions on special teams, 3rd most snaps on the team last year.
Cornerback – 4 (+1 Special Teams)
Byron Murphy, Mekhi Blackmon, Akayleb Evans, Andrew Booth Jr., (Kalon Barnes)
The 5th CB has to be a special teams guy. Joejuan Williams wasn’t that in New England since 2020, if Joejuan wants to make the roster, he might have to jump Booth. I put Barnes on purely for special teams gunner speed, this is not an endorsement that he’s the 5th best CB.
Safety – 4 (+1 Special Teams)
Harrison Smith, Josh Metellus, Cam Bynum, Lewis Cine, (Jay Ward)
I think 5 total safites make sense with as many 3 safety plays as the Vikings ran.
Specialist – 3
Greg Joseph, Ryan Right, Andrew DePaola
All together my special teams unit is (other position players would still have a role)
Tacklers and Blockers: CJ Ham, Patrick Jones II, Troy Dye, Johnny Mundt
Fast Guys: Jay Ward, Kalon Barnes
Returners: Kene Nwangwu, Jalen Reagor
Changes I thought most about:
Can I get a 6th WR? There’s a lot of good ones in camp
Did I successfully replace Kris Boyd on special teams? In 2022, when you include snaps from all three phases, Boyed played more than Alexander Mattison, Brian Asamoah, and Khyiris Tonga.
Are 6 DL are really necessary? I’m not sure I need a full set of starters and backups for a 3-4 base DL.
If I did take off Bullard or Jarren Hall, where would I add another guy? Probably CB, this only has 4 CBs, so things would get risky fast when / if there is an injury. I still have 10 DBs, playing 3 safeties and having Jay Ward to support coverage is why I went the way I did.
... and neither is this Chris guy.
