Realistic Expectations for the 2023 Defense?

27. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Eric Kendricks and Jordan Hicks played the vast majority of snaps for a unit — and team — that excelled against the run and struggled to cover. Kendricks left for Los Angeles, and Hicks remained in Minnesota.

Hicks’ 80.2 run-defense grade was a career-high mark, but it seems certain he won’t regain the coverage prowess he possessed in his early days in Philadelphia.

Brian Asamoah is the most likely partner for Hicks at this point. He played well in his small sample of 121 snaps last season, but his 78.8 grade is buoyed in part by one excellent game against the Giants. Troy Reeder also stands by as a veteran option. Right now, the Vikings are looking at Jordan Hicks and an open tryout for the other starting spot.

8. BRIAN FLORES, MINNESOTA VIKINGS

After spending the 2022 season as the linebackers coach in Pittsburgh, Flores will return to a featured coaching role, this time as defensive coordinator with the Minnesota Vikings.

Before his time with the Steelers, Flores was head coach of the Dolphins. In his first season, they ranked dead last in points per game allowed (30.9). In his second season, they jumped all the way to fourth (21.1). In his final season, Miami fell to 15th, but their average stayed true at 21.9 points allowed per game. The Dolphins placed sixth in the league in expected points allowed per play in those final two seasons with Flores at the helm.

To say that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s first draft class with the Minnesota Vikings was unorthodox would be an understatement.

Billed as a general manager who leans on analytical decision-making, Adofo-Mensah passed on a premium position with his first pick, traded down to take a safety, and traded down once again to take a cornerback, an offensive guard, and a linebacker.

The idea was to have as many selections in the “sweet spot” of the draft. But, one year into his regime, it’s been a bitter pill to swallow – especially on the defensive side of the ball.

After a disastrous season under Ed Donatell, the Vikings replaced him with Brian Flores. Known for having an aggressive, man-heavy scheme, Flores’ attitude was instilled into his defense as soon as OTAs. However, it remains to be seen how that shift will affect the 2022 draft class.

The most glaring difference will be in how the Vikings will be deployed in coverage. Under Donatell’s zone-heavy scheme, Minnesota was supposed to eliminate big plays in the middle of the field. Still, opposing offenses averaged 5.9 yards per play.

Flores’ scheme isn’t going to eliminate those plays. The Miami Dolphins ranked 25th with 5.9 yards allowed per play in 2020 but improved to 13th at 5.3 yards allowed per play in 2021. However, he asks his corners to play more in man coverage.

That’s important to remember when considering the players on the team. The Vikings traded up to select Andrew Booth Jr. in the second round of the 2022 draft, but that pick was made while Donatell was overseeing the defense. Booth showed the ability to play both man and zone coverage at Clemson. However, he excelled in man coverage, where he played just over 20% of his snaps but posted an overall grade of 70.5 in that sample size.

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler also pointed this out in his annual “The Beast” draft guide, citing Booth’s athleticism and “natural feel for pattern matching in press and off-man coverage.” In addition to the ability to blow things up at the line of scrimmage, having Booth play more man should help him if stays healthy.

Brugler said similar things about Minnesota’s fourth-round pick Akayleb Evans, who posted a 75.1 grade in the 52% of the snaps he played in man coverage during his final season at Missouri.

“A physical, long-armed athlete, Evans has plus speed and transition movement skills to press or play from depth,” Brugler wrote. “His eye discipline needs to be better to help mask his lack of short-area twitch and control when attempting to constrict passing windows.”

Brugler said that Evans likely isn’t a starting-caliber cornerback, but he could eventually become a rotational player. This seems to bode well for both players entering Flores’ scheme, but their spots aren’t a given after the addition of Mekhi Blackmon.

Blackmon was a polarizing prospect coming out of USC but is exactly what Flores wants in his corners. Blackmon is a little on the smaller size at 5’11” and 178 lbs. but he excelled in man coverage, posting an 84.2 coverage grade in man coverage (which accounted for about 20% of his snaps).

“A fluid athlete with average size, Blackmon has seen a lot of football and it shows with his anticipation and confidence to be disruptive in coverage,” Brugler wrote. “Although he tends to play too physically, NFL coaches will appreciate his mental and competitive toughness at the position, especially in the run game.”

At 24, Blackmon isn’t likely to become a shutdown corner but he fits Flores’ mold, which gives him a leg up on incumbent corners Evans and Booth. If Evans and Booth also continue to deal with injuries, it could put them on the fence, allowing Blackmon to seize a starting job to open the season.

But it’s not just the cornerbacks who have to be concerned. Lewis Cine was the Vikings’ first-round pick in 2022, and it’s hard to argue that his rookie season could have gone worse. Cine dealt with a knee injury during the preseason and was limited to just two defensive snaps in the opening month of the season. A broken leg ended that season prematurely. However, he appears to be physically ready to go for the start of next season.

Cine is one of the players who stands to benefit from Flores’ scheme as a hyper-athletic safety at his best attacking downhill. While Cine’s athletic traits stood out to Donatell, the idea of having him play back in coverage didn’t seem to utilize his talents as much as an aggressive defense like Flores’ would.

Brian Asamoah is the final player in this group. The Vikings selected Asamoah in the third round of the 2022 draft as a typical modern-day linebacker. At 6’0″, 226 lbs., Asamoah has the measurables more common of a safety than an old-school thumper. His speed is what sets him apart.

Asamoah’s 4.56-second time in the 40-yard dash ranked in the 85th percentile of linebackers, according to MockDraftable.