Year 2 with KAM & KO - What would make it a success for you?
Jul 14, 2023 15:20:04 GMT -6
Funkytown likes this
Post by Danchat on Jul 14, 2023 15:20:04 GMT -6
Sven… in relation to one score games and whether you expect the Vikings to move back to the mean in 2023. Clearly an expectation that the Vikings will go 11-0 in score games again is misguided, but if the number of one score games is 11 again and the Vikings go 5-6, then you could have an outcome of a losing season just by reverting back to the mean
For some reason the combination of having Kirk Cousins and a bad defense results in a bazillion one-score games. In 2020 and 2021 and went 12-14 in those games and then they won all of them last year. Wild.
I wrote a little about this last year: One-score games are not all built equally and they’re not completely random. If you have complete control of the game and have a 90% win probability the whole way and then the other team makes a desperate gasp at the end, that’s very different from a back-and-forth contest where a fumble or field goal makes the difference. The Vikings played more like six legit one-score games last year and then had some weird stuff happen in the others. Usually you’d expect to win three of those, not all six.
By the way, Tom Brady is 91-43 in games separated by 0-7 points in his career. Patrick Mahomes is 30-13. Peyton Manning 77-40. If it was 100% random, those guys wouldn’t have won many more games than they lost in those situations.
I think this team will probably have trouble blowing anybody out and they don’t have Brady, Mahomes or Manning so they will probably not go 11-0 in one-score games again. Even if they win Kirk’s career average and go 6-4 in those games, that’s a ton of regression. But 11 games is such a tiny sample size that it doesn’t have to come to an abrupt halt because there’s a new season. It’s not impossible that the tide could keep going their way into this year to some extent.
Long story short, 2022’s one-score performance by the Vikings might never be repeated so it’s fair to expect them to fall back but I don’t think the forces of nature are going to automatically make them lose a ton of one-score games this year. They still have a QB who wins a lot of those and a receiver who’s pretty darn hard to stop when they need one drive to win a game.
Thomas… As for the Vikes, I predict in 2023 that we will see the return of “Kirktober” as Kirk will be named NFC offensive player of the month for October.
Something you might not expect: Cousins actually has his highest career QB rating in November. His worst stats and record come in September and December. Funny though, “Kirktober” is listed on Pro-Football reference as one of his nicknames. This October they have five games, which are against Carolina, Kansas City, Chicago, San Francisco and Green Bay. A mixed bag of defenses there. November has Atlanta, New Orleans, Denver and Chicago. I’ll go with Kirk-vember.
For some reason the combination of having Kirk Cousins and a bad defense results in a bazillion one-score games. In 2020 and 2021 and went 12-14 in those games and then they won all of them last year. Wild.
I wrote a little about this last year: One-score games are not all built equally and they’re not completely random. If you have complete control of the game and have a 90% win probability the whole way and then the other team makes a desperate gasp at the end, that’s very different from a back-and-forth contest where a fumble or field goal makes the difference. The Vikings played more like six legit one-score games last year and then had some weird stuff happen in the others. Usually you’d expect to win three of those, not all six.
By the way, Tom Brady is 91-43 in games separated by 0-7 points in his career. Patrick Mahomes is 30-13. Peyton Manning 77-40. If it was 100% random, those guys wouldn’t have won many more games than they lost in those situations.
I think this team will probably have trouble blowing anybody out and they don’t have Brady, Mahomes or Manning so they will probably not go 11-0 in one-score games again. Even if they win Kirk’s career average and go 6-4 in those games, that’s a ton of regression. But 11 games is such a tiny sample size that it doesn’t have to come to an abrupt halt because there’s a new season. It’s not impossible that the tide could keep going their way into this year to some extent.
Long story short, 2022’s one-score performance by the Vikings might never be repeated so it’s fair to expect them to fall back but I don’t think the forces of nature are going to automatically make them lose a ton of one-score games this year. They still have a QB who wins a lot of those and a receiver who’s pretty darn hard to stop when they need one drive to win a game.
Thomas… As for the Vikes, I predict in 2023 that we will see the return of “Kirktober” as Kirk will be named NFC offensive player of the month for October.
Something you might not expect: Cousins actually has his highest career QB rating in November. His worst stats and record come in September and December. Funny though, “Kirktober” is listed on Pro-Football reference as one of his nicknames. This October they have five games, which are against Carolina, Kansas City, Chicago, San Francisco and Green Bay. A mixed bag of defenses there. November has Atlanta, New Orleans, Denver and Chicago. I’ll go with Kirk-vember.
Both numbers were fairly close to .500 until 2022 happened. The past 3 years have been a wild ride for Vikings fans, after 2019 teased us with 7 multi-score wins.
... and neither is this Chris guy.