Overrated/Underrated for 2023 - Who ya got?!

Prove it year:

Love this stat discussed by Mina Kimes: teams only played base defense 15% of the time when the Vikings were in 12 personnel with two tight ends. NFL Avg: 54%. The did not respect the Vikings' running game. The good news is with Hockenson, she said the Vikings went from 30th in EPA per play to 7th.

Will they respect the run more with Oliver as TE2? If no, hopefully, they pound the ball against Nickel defenses and set up play action. With both guys, EPA per play could be even better.

Correct, Will & WiVikesfan. Also consider that Dalvin went from a guy consistently near the top or at the top of the League in Yards after initial contact to like dead last a season ago. Mattison will at least get you a few yards even if he's hit right away.

More 2nd & 7 or 8 yards instead of 2nd & 10 or longer means O'Connell can stick with the run more often on 2nd down. But it also means more options for Kevin to dial up shorter, easier completions on 2nd down, like hitting the RB out of the backfield or letting Ham or Oliver leak into the flats.

Last year seemed like Cook gets stuffed or takes a loss on 1st Down and the next play was usually Cousins burping the baby waiting for JJ or Hock to uncover in the intermediate part of the field. The fact that they were as successful as they were being so predictable and 1 dimensional is a tribute to JJ's greatness, Hock's value and Kirk's toughness.

Cam Aikers was Dalvin Cook extra lite for the Rams. But he consistently got enough yards on 1st down to let McVay open up the playbook. That's all the Vikings need.

And Oliver obviously can't block up the gut runs. Which means Kevin will call more runs off Tackle to take advantage of his blocking skills. Plus, Ham will lead the way a lot more often when they do run up the middle.

At the end of the day this really should be a more balanced, less predictable Offense that won't go 3 & Out as often. Which not only helps the Defense it also helps the IOL by not seemingly always being in 2nd & Long with Cousins (by design) holding the ball as long as almost any QB in the League.

Those long developing Option Routes do the IOL no favors. Not that I'm a fan of Cleveland, Bradbury or Ingram by any stretch. But look at the Rams Team that won the Superbowl. No big names on their Interior. Same for the 9ers the last however many years. Their best Linemen by far were their Tackles. They just needed average interior play because their Offenses were so diverse.

I expected a Top 5 Offense last year and Kevin O'Connell failed to deliver. I expect it again this year. It really does look like he's self-scouted and addressed his shortcomings as a playcaller. Hopefully he gets better from a situational perspective too.