2023 Season - Versatility & Continuity
May 7, 2023 17:20:43 GMT -6
via mobile
CAMartin, vikadam, and 1 more like this
Post by Funkytown on May 7, 2023 17:20:43 GMT -6
this year it's versatility and continuity.
Daunte gets the credit for this year's theme!
--
Remember all of the discussions about DVOA and all of the other advanced statistics suggesting we weren't really as good as our record?
Well...let's dive in.
Why the Vikings Were So Bad in DVOA Last Season- And Why They’ll Be Better This Season by wludford
2022 Vikings Season DVOA
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24638592/Picture26.png)
Above is the Vikings 2022 season by DVOA broken down on a per-game basis, and by offense and defense DVOA, each in turn broken down into pass and rush DVOA, and special teams DVOA. The last column is Post-Game Winning Expectancy or PGWE, which is the probability the team will win the game based on the play-by-play and game situations encountered.
Let me draw your attention to a couple key takeaways from this chart:
- Offensively, only Pass DVOA was generally positive- and occasionally highly positive-consistently over the course of the season, Dallas and Philadelphia excepted.
- Defensive Pass DVOA was frequently very bad (high double-digit positive %) and only three games significantly positive (double-digit negative DVOA %).
- Offense Rushing DVOA had a few good games early in the season but was a major liability the entire second half of the season, apart from the Jets game.
- Special teams had a significant negative impact on the game more often than it had a significant positive impact and was a net negative for the season.
- Defensive Rush DVOA was modestly positive for the season (-4.2% DVOA) with seven significantly positive (double digit negative DVOA %) games.
Overall, it’s easy to conclude that the major liabilities for the Vikings last season were:
1) Pass Defense
2) Rushing Offense, particularly the second half of the season
Looking Ahead to This Season
The most meaningful change the Vikings made this off-season was to replace defensive coordinator Ed Donatell with Brian Flores. The change in coordinators is likely to be more impactful than in other like cases due to the dramatic difference in the defensive scheme and philosophies of the two coordinators. In fact, I’m not sure there are two more diametrically opposed approaches to defense by any two defensive coordinators in NFL history, at least from what we’ve seen from Ed Donatell last season with the Vikings and from Brian Flores while he was in Miami.
From Ed Donatell...
Ed Donatell’s approach last season was a passive, prevent defense- rushing four with a below league average blitz rate, defensive backs giving 8-10-yard cushions in zone defense, which he played a league-high 85% of the time. Philosophically, Donatell was willing to give up underneath routes all afternoon, assuming eventually the offense wouldn’t be able to execute and convert a third down and the drive would stall, or they’d fail to score a touchdown- which was also considered a win.
From a DVOA perspective, this approach was philosophically and schematically designed to do poorly in DVOA, particularly Pass DVOA. Which it did. Allowing those modest, but more frequent, successful pass plays in hope of preventing a big play or a touchdown, is a recipe for bad defensive DVOA. And not only was Donatell’s defense bad from a DVOA perspective, it was also the most consistently bad. It had the least amount of DVOA variance from game-to-game of any defense in the league- which also supports the ‘bad-by-design’ aspect of the scheme.
... To Brian Flores
By contrast, Brian Flores’ approach in Miami was an aggressive, attacking defense- rushing five or more 33% of the time with an above average blitz rate, defensive backs in man coverage, high rates of Cover-0 (no deep safeties) with a focus on pressuring the quarterback to generate negative plays. Flores was willing to risk giving up the occasional big play to the offense if he could generate more negative plays to force stalled drives.
From a DVOA perspective, this is philosophically and schematically designed to do well in DVOA, particularly Pass DVOA, barring significant incompetence in executing the scheme.
After Flores’ first season as head coach in Miami, an injury-riddled season defensively, Flores’ defense went from at or near the bottom of the league in DVOA the previous two seasons, to 11th in 2020- a huge 26.3% improvement in total defensive DVOA from the previous year and an even more massive 47.5% improvement in Pass DVOA. And without much of a defensive roster either. It was ranked 10th in DVOA in 2021 under Flores.
Interestingly, as Flores brings his scheme to the NFC North, one quarterback in particular has had two nightmare games against Brian Flores’ defense: Jared Goff- current quarterback of the Lions, the early favorite to win the division this season. Goff had four turnovers- 2 INTs, 2 lost fumbles- and a 65.7 passer rating against Miami in 2020 while with the Rams, and a 57.9 passer rating with the Rams in the Super Bowl following the 2018 season with 1 INT, 4 sacks, and having completed only 50% of his pass attempts.
Young quarterbacks often find Flores’ attacking, deceptive, blitz-heavy scheme difficult to navigate. With two young QBs in the NFC North this season, Jordan Love and Justin Fields, it will be interesting to see how they fare.
In terms of year-over-year changes in DVOA, defensive DVOA has proven to be more volatile according to Football Outsiders, while offensive DVOA has been more stable. The bi-polar changes the Vikings have made in terms of defensive scheme and philosophy would tend to support a more dramatic change in DVOA this season. And given where the Vikings finished last season in defensive DVOA (27th), greater year-over-year volatility is more likely to benefit than hurt them this season.
Offensive Changes Too
Kevin O’Connell has said that what you focus on, or what you emphasize, tends to be what you get when it comes to coaching. This off-season, O’Connell has talked about becoming more effective running the ball on offense. Undoubtedly, he’s familiar with the Vikings’ DVOA in running the ball last season and wants to improve in that area.
Breaking it down, the Vikings offensive line generally gets good PFF grades in run blocking, although their run block win rate is near league average at 71% - same as the 49ers and Titans last season. But 72% would’ve put them tied for 8th best, as there isn’t as much variance across the league in run block win rate as in pass block win rate. So, despite average or above average performance in run blocking, the Vikings’ offense was near the bottom in Rushing DVOA last season. Part of that was likely due to the decline of Dalvin Cook, who took the lion’s share of the running back rush attempts last season. Sometimes a running back can be blamed for not getting the yards blocked for him by not hitting the hole quick enough, leading to unsuccessful run plays that hurt DVOA. But perhaps some of the poor rushing DVOA was due to poor run blocking at the tight-end position, given all of the offensive linemen graded relatively well in run blocking (they were the top 5 best run blockers on the team), which can often be an important blocker in both mid-zone and some gap/power runs which the Vikings run. Johnny Mundt was among the worst run-blocking tight-ends in the league last year with 50% of the run blocking snaps- and TJ Hockenson wasn’t that much better.
In order to improve their running game efficiency, and Kevin O’Connell particularly mentioned being able to run better on early downs to setup more favorable third-down conversions, the Vikings are moving on from Johnny Mundt as the primary blocking tight end, in favor of new free agent acquisition Josh Oliver- who was the highest graded run blocking tight-end in the league last season. He was also one of the best pass-blocking tight ends, particularly in true pass sets (which exclude plays with less than 4 rushers, play action, screens, short dropbacks and time-to-throws under 2 seconds) where he ranked sixth best in the league.
The Vikings also appear to be moving on from Dalvin Cook, who at age 28 has exited the prime for running backs, in favor of Alexander Mattison (24) and likely Ty Chandler as well. Mattison graded higher than Cook last year as a rusher, and while it makes sense to go with a younger back (and definitely from a salary cap perspective), it’s unclear if Mattison can deliver better results with a higher volume of snaps. Mattison also did better as a pass blocker than Cook last year, which also benefits the offense, although not the running game.
The addition of Josh Oliver also suggests the Vikings will use more two-tight-end sets (12 personnel) than they did last season. This could lead to benefits in both the run and pass game, as it could force defenses to use their base defense more often, which has benefits to the pass game, or gives an advantage to the run game if opposing defenses maintain a nickel defense and/or two deep safeties. In any case, Oliver’s better blocking ability in both the run and pass game can only improve offensive efficiency.
The only other significant change offensively will be the replacement of Adam Thielen with Jordan Addison. It remains to be seen how fast Addison can get acclimated to the NFL and if he can earn the WR2 position that Thielen held last season, but even more than Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen is well into the back-nine of his career. His ability to separate from defenders last season declined noticeably, as did his production. Among wide receivers with at least 88 targets last season, Thielen ranked 41st of 45 in PFF receiving grade. KJ Osborn ranked 43rd. So, while we don’t know how well Addison will do this season as a rookie, the bar to clear is not as high as you may think.
Bottom Line
The Vikings were one of the worst teams in team DVOA last season, ranking 27th, and were historically bad for a 13-win team. Most of that had to do with poor defensive DVOA, particularly Pass DVOA, but also Rushing Offense DVOA.
The Vikings have made a major philosophical and schematic change in their approach to defense this off-season by replacing Ed Donatell with Brian Flores. In fact, there is unlikely a more diametrically opposite approach to defense between two defensive coordinators in NFL history, contrasting Ed Donatell’s approach with the Vikings last season and that of Brian Flores’ with the Dolphins. Flores has previously made dramatic improvements in defensive DVOA during his time at Miami, and he could do the same in Minnesota.
Offensively, Kevin O’Connell his indicated he is focused on becoming more effective in running the ball and has made some key personnel and likely schematic changes regarding use of double-tight-end sets to help him accomplish that goal- which may also result in benefits to the passing game. And while the offense was the strength of the team last season, Passing DVOA was only about league average (15th), while Rushing DVOA ranked 28th.
Overall, the changes and focus of the coaching staff this off-season are likely to lead to significant improvement in DVOA this season. It may not lead to more wins- after all the Vikings were tied for the second-most wins last season with 13- but it could increase the margin of victory, point differential, and other advanced metrics for the Vikings this season- perhaps even leading to a deeper run in the post-season.
Stay tuned.
Above is the Vikings 2022 season by DVOA broken down on a per-game basis, and by offense and defense DVOA, each in turn broken down into pass and rush DVOA, and special teams DVOA. The last column is Post-Game Winning Expectancy or PGWE, which is the probability the team will win the game based on the play-by-play and game situations encountered.
Let me draw your attention to a couple key takeaways from this chart:
- Offensively, only Pass DVOA was generally positive- and occasionally highly positive-consistently over the course of the season, Dallas and Philadelphia excepted.
- Defensive Pass DVOA was frequently very bad (high double-digit positive %) and only three games significantly positive (double-digit negative DVOA %).
- Offense Rushing DVOA had a few good games early in the season but was a major liability the entire second half of the season, apart from the Jets game.
- Special teams had a significant negative impact on the game more often than it had a significant positive impact and was a net negative for the season.
- Defensive Rush DVOA was modestly positive for the season (-4.2% DVOA) with seven significantly positive (double digit negative DVOA %) games.
Overall, it’s easy to conclude that the major liabilities for the Vikings last season were:
1) Pass Defense
2) Rushing Offense, particularly the second half of the season
Looking Ahead to This Season
The most meaningful change the Vikings made this off-season was to replace defensive coordinator Ed Donatell with Brian Flores. The change in coordinators is likely to be more impactful than in other like cases due to the dramatic difference in the defensive scheme and philosophies of the two coordinators. In fact, I’m not sure there are two more diametrically opposed approaches to defense by any two defensive coordinators in NFL history, at least from what we’ve seen from Ed Donatell last season with the Vikings and from Brian Flores while he was in Miami.
From Ed Donatell...
Ed Donatell’s approach last season was a passive, prevent defense- rushing four with a below league average blitz rate, defensive backs giving 8-10-yard cushions in zone defense, which he played a league-high 85% of the time. Philosophically, Donatell was willing to give up underneath routes all afternoon, assuming eventually the offense wouldn’t be able to execute and convert a third down and the drive would stall, or they’d fail to score a touchdown- which was also considered a win.
From a DVOA perspective, this approach was philosophically and schematically designed to do poorly in DVOA, particularly Pass DVOA. Which it did. Allowing those modest, but more frequent, successful pass plays in hope of preventing a big play or a touchdown, is a recipe for bad defensive DVOA. And not only was Donatell’s defense bad from a DVOA perspective, it was also the most consistently bad. It had the least amount of DVOA variance from game-to-game of any defense in the league- which also supports the ‘bad-by-design’ aspect of the scheme.
... To Brian Flores
By contrast, Brian Flores’ approach in Miami was an aggressive, attacking defense- rushing five or more 33% of the time with an above average blitz rate, defensive backs in man coverage, high rates of Cover-0 (no deep safeties) with a focus on pressuring the quarterback to generate negative plays. Flores was willing to risk giving up the occasional big play to the offense if he could generate more negative plays to force stalled drives.
From a DVOA perspective, this is philosophically and schematically designed to do well in DVOA, particularly Pass DVOA, barring significant incompetence in executing the scheme.
After Flores’ first season as head coach in Miami, an injury-riddled season defensively, Flores’ defense went from at or near the bottom of the league in DVOA the previous two seasons, to 11th in 2020- a huge 26.3% improvement in total defensive DVOA from the previous year and an even more massive 47.5% improvement in Pass DVOA. And without much of a defensive roster either. It was ranked 10th in DVOA in 2021 under Flores.
Interestingly, as Flores brings his scheme to the NFC North, one quarterback in particular has had two nightmare games against Brian Flores’ defense: Jared Goff- current quarterback of the Lions, the early favorite to win the division this season. Goff had four turnovers- 2 INTs, 2 lost fumbles- and a 65.7 passer rating against Miami in 2020 while with the Rams, and a 57.9 passer rating with the Rams in the Super Bowl following the 2018 season with 1 INT, 4 sacks, and having completed only 50% of his pass attempts.
Young quarterbacks often find Flores’ attacking, deceptive, blitz-heavy scheme difficult to navigate. With two young QBs in the NFC North this season, Jordan Love and Justin Fields, it will be interesting to see how they fare.
In terms of year-over-year changes in DVOA, defensive DVOA has proven to be more volatile according to Football Outsiders, while offensive DVOA has been more stable. The bi-polar changes the Vikings have made in terms of defensive scheme and philosophy would tend to support a more dramatic change in DVOA this season. And given where the Vikings finished last season in defensive DVOA (27th), greater year-over-year volatility is more likely to benefit than hurt them this season.
Offensive Changes Too
Kevin O’Connell has said that what you focus on, or what you emphasize, tends to be what you get when it comes to coaching. This off-season, O’Connell has talked about becoming more effective running the ball on offense. Undoubtedly, he’s familiar with the Vikings’ DVOA in running the ball last season and wants to improve in that area.
Breaking it down, the Vikings offensive line generally gets good PFF grades in run blocking, although their run block win rate is near league average at 71% - same as the 49ers and Titans last season. But 72% would’ve put them tied for 8th best, as there isn’t as much variance across the league in run block win rate as in pass block win rate. So, despite average or above average performance in run blocking, the Vikings’ offense was near the bottom in Rushing DVOA last season. Part of that was likely due to the decline of Dalvin Cook, who took the lion’s share of the running back rush attempts last season. Sometimes a running back can be blamed for not getting the yards blocked for him by not hitting the hole quick enough, leading to unsuccessful run plays that hurt DVOA. But perhaps some of the poor rushing DVOA was due to poor run blocking at the tight-end position, given all of the offensive linemen graded relatively well in run blocking (they were the top 5 best run blockers on the team), which can often be an important blocker in both mid-zone and some gap/power runs which the Vikings run. Johnny Mundt was among the worst run-blocking tight-ends in the league last year with 50% of the run blocking snaps- and TJ Hockenson wasn’t that much better.
In order to improve their running game efficiency, and Kevin O’Connell particularly mentioned being able to run better on early downs to setup more favorable third-down conversions, the Vikings are moving on from Johnny Mundt as the primary blocking tight end, in favor of new free agent acquisition Josh Oliver- who was the highest graded run blocking tight-end in the league last season. He was also one of the best pass-blocking tight ends, particularly in true pass sets (which exclude plays with less than 4 rushers, play action, screens, short dropbacks and time-to-throws under 2 seconds) where he ranked sixth best in the league.
The Vikings also appear to be moving on from Dalvin Cook, who at age 28 has exited the prime for running backs, in favor of Alexander Mattison (24) and likely Ty Chandler as well. Mattison graded higher than Cook last year as a rusher, and while it makes sense to go with a younger back (and definitely from a salary cap perspective), it’s unclear if Mattison can deliver better results with a higher volume of snaps. Mattison also did better as a pass blocker than Cook last year, which also benefits the offense, although not the running game.
The addition of Josh Oliver also suggests the Vikings will use more two-tight-end sets (12 personnel) than they did last season. This could lead to benefits in both the run and pass game, as it could force defenses to use their base defense more often, which has benefits to the pass game, or gives an advantage to the run game if opposing defenses maintain a nickel defense and/or two deep safeties. In any case, Oliver’s better blocking ability in both the run and pass game can only improve offensive efficiency.
The only other significant change offensively will be the replacement of Adam Thielen with Jordan Addison. It remains to be seen how fast Addison can get acclimated to the NFL and if he can earn the WR2 position that Thielen held last season, but even more than Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen is well into the back-nine of his career. His ability to separate from defenders last season declined noticeably, as did his production. Among wide receivers with at least 88 targets last season, Thielen ranked 41st of 45 in PFF receiving grade. KJ Osborn ranked 43rd. So, while we don’t know how well Addison will do this season as a rookie, the bar to clear is not as high as you may think.
Bottom Line
The Vikings were one of the worst teams in team DVOA last season, ranking 27th, and were historically bad for a 13-win team. Most of that had to do with poor defensive DVOA, particularly Pass DVOA, but also Rushing Offense DVOA.
The Vikings have made a major philosophical and schematic change in their approach to defense this off-season by replacing Ed Donatell with Brian Flores. In fact, there is unlikely a more diametrically opposite approach to defense between two defensive coordinators in NFL history, contrasting Ed Donatell’s approach with the Vikings last season and that of Brian Flores’ with the Dolphins. Flores has previously made dramatic improvements in defensive DVOA during his time at Miami, and he could do the same in Minnesota.
Offensively, Kevin O’Connell his indicated he is focused on becoming more effective in running the ball and has made some key personnel and likely schematic changes regarding use of double-tight-end sets to help him accomplish that goal- which may also result in benefits to the passing game. And while the offense was the strength of the team last season, Passing DVOA was only about league average (15th), while Rushing DVOA ranked 28th.
Overall, the changes and focus of the coaching staff this off-season are likely to lead to significant improvement in DVOA this season. It may not lead to more wins- after all the Vikings were tied for the second-most wins last season with 13- but it could increase the margin of victory, point differential, and other advanced metrics for the Vikings this season- perhaps even leading to a deeper run in the post-season.
Stay tuned.
Rest at the link:
www.dailynorseman.com/2023/5/7/23659348/why-the-vikings-were-so-bad-in-dvoa-last-season-and-why-theyll-be-better-this-season
... and neither is this Chris guy.
