Post by MidwinterViking on Apr 23, 2023 20:43:39 GMT -6
What if there was no 2023 NFL Draft? That’s the question I always ask myself when I look at a roster before the draft; the draft doesn’t happen in a vacuum, this is a continuation of my Before You Just go BPA piece.
A few positions need a closer look: CB, LB, WR, DL, RB
Cornerback – Probably needs to be 4 deep with guys who can play and only 1 really know quantity. Between Andrew Booth Jr, Akayleb Evans, Joejuan Williams there is a good enough chance that one out of three steps up to be an outside starter. If that happens, I can tolerate some uncertainty at nickel and depth CBs, but even then they are a player away from real clarity.
Linebacker - Previously summed up here:
In my pre-free agency take, I though LB would be a very clear indicator of early draft intentions: they need 2 starers, but ILBs don't usually rotate, unlike CB, DE and WR needs the ILB depth doesn't mean much (in roster construction) and I only need to count to 2.
#1 Asamoah
#2a Free Agent who is a clear starter
#2b cheap starter who is really just a seat warmer for a rookie.
When I wrote that before free agency, more of the comments were in favor of signing a starter. To the point above, other than Tremaine Edmunds, most of the starters were paid less than pre-free agency projects.
Jordan Hicks negotiating his salary down to $3.5M is the very picture of a seat filler. Using the seat warmer as "Plan A" for the entire season seems to be a noticeable contrast to how Kwesi is setting up the rest of the roster. The only one thing that makes me like Jordan Hicks more is looking at the list of potential post draft free agents. So I can only conclude there is some sort of draft target in play.
Wide Receiver – Ok, so they’re going to play more two tight end sets. The Vikings still need another receiver. The Vikings were the king of two tight end sets under late Zimmer; in 2020 Rudolph, Irv Smith Jr and Tyler Conklin all played more than 40% of snaps, and even with that HEAVY tight end usage Chad Beebe was playing 40% of snaps while he was healthy. So the WR need ranges from playing 40% of the time as a floor to the 75% KJ Osborn played in 2022. Are the Vikings at their best with Jalen Nailor or Jalen Reagor on the field at least half the time? Your answer to this question should tell you how badly the Vikings need a WR to contribute. Reagor has upside, but negative history. Nailor’s brief history is positive, but upside is questionable.
Defensive Line - I’m calling OLB / Edge rushers part of the DL. As long as ZaDarius Smith is here, edge depth is great but the interior positions are less clear; Harrison Phillips is obviously a guy. Khyiris Tonga can have a run stuffing role. Dean Lowry’s contract is easy to get out of after 1 year, so he seems intended to transition to Esezi Otomewo as Esezi develops. I do like the plan of rotating Hunter, Z and Davenport to keep them all fresh, then occasionally unleashing all 3 on passing downs. Add in Lynch, and Bullard and there’s nothing dominant, but enough puzzle pieces that something can be put together. A longer term plan at DT would still be an improvement.
Running Back – No need with Cook on the team. Without Cook, there is a significant need. Mattison performs and is paid like a very good backup. Ty Chandler missed 10 games, but that means he had 7 games to put some kind pressure on Mattison for RB2 and did nothing of the sort.
A quick one line run-down of position ranked by need is:
CB – Need to find 2 core contributors, one via development is likely.
LB – Only a minimum viable starter, upgrades and future should be considered
WR – Need to find at least 40% of snaps, the only on team options have major questions.
QB – Not needed for 2023 but as the post important position, will get its own look in the draft
DL – Existing puzzle pieces could be improved with a guy who is a dude.
RB – Only a need if the Vikings make it a need.
OL – All 5 starters set as well as the two backup tackles, drafting for IOL development.
S – So deep that 3 safety formations might take some pressure off CB depth.
TE – Strong and deep
ST – All signed, minimal value in depth
Two Draft Directions
The Vikings have set themselves up so that the only position that really needs another contributor is corner, but at the same time, CB, LB, WR, DL all need building blocks. This opens up two distinct draft plans. I think the Vikings have done this on purpose and won’t know which of these two paths they will follow until the draft starts to unfold.
Option 1 is to go after Cousins successor. My opinion is that the only way to do this is to target the player that you like; that means it will require the Vikings 1st round pick and probably other assets. I don’t know which QB it is they would target between Richardson, Levis and Hooker, but those are the only three I consider in this case. This is also the only way I would go after a QB, the Vikings don’t have enough picks for a dart throw on a low percentage mid rounder (and late rounders aren't even a consideration for backup status); Mullins is a fine backup.
Looking at trades:
#23 + #87 has trade value close to pick #17(Steelers) or #18 (Lions). This would give up no high value pick and jump in front of the QB needy Bucs at #19.
I don’t think giving up #87 is very likely simply because it would leave too few picks to even build depth. I also don’t like this because if the team’s conviction is that the future QB is only worth the 17th pick, I don’t think that’s a very strong conviction. More likely is something like:
#23 + 2024 2nd to get to #14-16 depending on how badly teams want to trade back
Or
#23 + 2024 1st to potentially get up as high as #10
Those are options to put the Vikings in rage to pick anywhere from #10-18 giving up only one pick. Assuming they don’t give it up, pick #87 and #119 become developmental guys or, more likely, special teams. I’d guess LB and DB based on the current roster situation. I would also watch for a trade like this:
Vikings Give: #87 + #158 + #211 (189 pts)
49ers Give: #99 + #102 + (196 pts) Depending on who falls to 87, the 49ers could pay a bit of a premium, or they could swap #101 out for #99 and the trade is exactly even on points. That gives the Vikings #99, 101, and 118 to fill in the three glaring needs at CB and LB.
In this situation, I’m going to assume Nailor or Reagor develops at WR because there just aren’t enough picks to go around. Based on NFL Mock Draft Database Consensus big board, some guys that fit that position and profile (Consensus big board rank):
95 – CB – Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson – Super athletic but smaller than the Vikings target and seems to be a consensus he will be gone by then, but he’s in the range if he falls a few pick.
102 – CB - Eli Ricks – Alabama: a 6’2” press man CB in need of some polish
112 – CB – Kyu Blu Kelly – Standford: maybe more athletic than Rick if that’s what the team wants
101 – LB – Nick Herbig Wisconsin: maybe more of an OLB than ILB, but good production
103 – LB - DeMarvin Overshown – Texas: Safety turned LB if you want a fast guy in coverage.
107 – LB - Noah Sewell – Penei’s brother, more powerful than fast, but I’d be all for a twice a year Sewell matchup.
I’m not thrilled with relying on contribution from those CBs, but the LBs are why I like this plan. There is a good variety of play style right in range the Vikings would be targeting; they're right in the 2nd tier of LB and it's not unrealistic to think one could contribute.
Option 2 is a Build the Current team approach. For all the talk of Vikings targeting a QB, their moves suggest they think there is a strong possibility it doesn’t happen. If they don’t draft a QB, I expect they will extend Cousins and lock him is as the starter for 2023 and 2024. As a general rule, it’s worth it to convert bonuses of players you think will be on the team next year (you get the future year cap discount without the dead cap implications). Consider Brian O’Niell, one of the few guys who is a near lock to be a Viking in 2024. The fact that they converted Cousins $20M bonus before they converted O’Niell’s $14.4M base salary says they think there is a strong chance the Vikings think Cousins is back. The Vikings could have opened up about 2/3 of the cap space they did with Cousins by converting O’Niell’s salary; plus a few smaller moves and they have the same 2023 flexibility.
Because of that I’m going to take 2024 into account in this draft as well. In this case (Where to Pick), I’m going to try and make 3 picks in the top 70 (or as close as I can to the top 70 as I realistically can to get what I want). How might I get that with current pick values of:
#23 = 245 pts
#87 = 48 pts
#119 = 24 pts
317 pts total.
Kwesi has said that he views the draft as an auction, so getting to 3 in the top 75 would likely require multiple trades; the Vikings made 3 trade in this range last year (and because of that, I’m not even going to try to project every possible permutation of trade scenarios). However, here are few hypothetical pick hauls that would have nearly the same point value as what the Vikings have now:
#35 + #67 + #69 = 316 pts
#40 + #58 + #71 = 318 pts
#42 + #54 + #66 = 316 pts
#31 + #71 + #78 = 317 pts (I’m going a bit outside the top 70 to get one pick with a 5th year option)
A look at some players that would fall in those ranges (again, using the Mock Draft database consensus big board), it becomes a game of mix and match from the players below to fit the draft slots in the trade scenarios above:
Cornerback
#36 Cam Smith – Big, outside corner
#38 Kelee Ringo – Super athletic, but not polished
#53 DJ Turner – fast, but small feisty guy
#59 Julius Brents – tall, but NFL.com says he a zone guy without top end speed
#73 Tyrique Stevenson – Big and, strong and pretty athletic as well
#81 Garrett Williams – Average size and athleticism, with good technique
Linebacker:
#40 Drew Sanders – pass rushing ILB
#43 Jack Campbell – powerful LB built to be in the box
#45 Trenton Simpson – speed for days if he can get to the right spot
#71 Daiyan Henley – high effort with good production
#80 Henry To’oto’o – a steady technician
Wide Receiver:
#39 Jalin Hayatt – the #1 graded WR on NFL.com
#49 Josh Downs – small framed dynamic athlete
#65 Cedrick Tillman – big competitive outside guy
#72 Marvin Mims – Tall and athletic, but questions about is role in a spread translating
#75 Rashed Rice – good enough measurable traits, but inconsistent
Defensive Line
#34 Mazi Smith – plays bigger than his 323lbs suggest
#56 Tuli Tuipulotu – DT / DE combo guy
#62 Keeanu Benton – powerful 4 year starter
#66 Siaki Ika – I can’t do better than the first line of his profile: “Girthy interior force”
Some Player combos that could give the Vikings with their first 3 picks:
DT Mazi Smith + WR Cedrick Tillman + LB Henry To’oto’o
CB Cam Smith + LB Daiyan Henley + WR Rashed Rice
LB Drew Sanders + CB Julius Brents + DT Siaki Ika
Midwinter Viking Approach
at some point I have to split from what I think the Vikings are doing, to what I would do in this situation. If I were running this draft, the approach I would be:
1) QB - I'll rely on scouts for the QB call. For this take, I'm going to assume that the QB I want is out of reach and goes before my trade window at 10 opens. If Will Levis or Anthony Richardson make it to 10 and the Vikings want to say he's their guy, I'll be perfectly happy if they take a swing, but I consider option 2 more likely. So I'll add 2 years to Cousins contract.
2) I'm keeping Dalvin Cook and ZaDarius Smith. I want good players, not pointless cap space to spend on [whoever is left]. With no first rounders, the rookie class below will have minimal cost to sign, and some space will be opened with a Hockenson extension.
3) Draft Pick Trades - I'd be trying to get into the mid-late 30's and allow myself 2 picks in the late 60's to early 70's. (Something like this option: #35 + #67 + #69 = 316 pts)
4) My Pick targets (That's right, I buried my actual mock draft 2,300 words into a 2,500 word post. I roll my own way.)
Pick 1: LB – Trenton Simpson – He’s fallen through the draft process, forget all the overanalyzing, I’ll put as much speed on the field as I can every down. In college he lined up on the line, in the box and in slot coverage. If I can get him early – mid second, even better. This feels like a perfect player / need / position combo to kick off my draft.
Pick 2: CB - Tyrique Stevenson – Big, athletic, and physical. His downside is that he makes mistakes in zone, something were’ supposedly not going to do much of.
Pick 3: WR – Marvin Mims – a 4.38 speed, yard after catch, 21 year old junior. He ran in a spread offense and has a limited route tree, and I don’t care at all about that limitation – the Vikings have a dude to run every route. Mims doesn’t have to do everything, but if he does one or two things he’d be immensely valuable.
5) My Backup Plan: I have to have an alternative if those guys are gone. If Trenton Simpson goes early, I'll pivot to
Alternate Pick 1: CB - Cam Smith - I still want big, fast and aggressive, I'll just get it at CB instead of LB
Alternate Pick 2: DT - Siaki Ika - I'll bolster the defense with Ika instead of Simpson and watch for LB depth on the cheap.
Alternate Pick 3: Can I still get Marvin Mims? No. Please? Still no. Ok, did Cedrick Tillman fall? No. Fine, I'll target LB - Noah Sewell, and try to add a few extra 4th-6th round picks for special teams.
There is my complete draft plan, who else would you mix and match from those pick choices?
A few positions need a closer look: CB, LB, WR, DL, RB
Cornerback – Probably needs to be 4 deep with guys who can play and only 1 really know quantity. Between Andrew Booth Jr, Akayleb Evans, Joejuan Williams there is a good enough chance that one out of three steps up to be an outside starter. If that happens, I can tolerate some uncertainty at nickel and depth CBs, but even then they are a player away from real clarity.
Linebacker - Previously summed up here:
#1 Asamoah
#2a Free Agent who is a clear starter
#2b cheap starter who is really just a seat warmer for a rookie.
When I wrote that before free agency, more of the comments were in favor of signing a starter. To the point above, other than Tremaine Edmunds, most of the starters were paid less than pre-free agency projects.
Jordan Hicks negotiating his salary down to $3.5M is the very picture of a seat filler. Using the seat warmer as "Plan A" for the entire season seems to be a noticeable contrast to how Kwesi is setting up the rest of the roster. The only one thing that makes me like Jordan Hicks more is looking at the list of potential post draft free agents. So I can only conclude there is some sort of draft target in play.
Wide Receiver – Ok, so they’re going to play more two tight end sets. The Vikings still need another receiver. The Vikings were the king of two tight end sets under late Zimmer; in 2020 Rudolph, Irv Smith Jr and Tyler Conklin all played more than 40% of snaps, and even with that HEAVY tight end usage Chad Beebe was playing 40% of snaps while he was healthy. So the WR need ranges from playing 40% of the time as a floor to the 75% KJ Osborn played in 2022. Are the Vikings at their best with Jalen Nailor or Jalen Reagor on the field at least half the time? Your answer to this question should tell you how badly the Vikings need a WR to contribute. Reagor has upside, but negative history. Nailor’s brief history is positive, but upside is questionable.
Defensive Line - I’m calling OLB / Edge rushers part of the DL. As long as ZaDarius Smith is here, edge depth is great but the interior positions are less clear; Harrison Phillips is obviously a guy. Khyiris Tonga can have a run stuffing role. Dean Lowry’s contract is easy to get out of after 1 year, so he seems intended to transition to Esezi Otomewo as Esezi develops. I do like the plan of rotating Hunter, Z and Davenport to keep them all fresh, then occasionally unleashing all 3 on passing downs. Add in Lynch, and Bullard and there’s nothing dominant, but enough puzzle pieces that something can be put together. A longer term plan at DT would still be an improvement.
Running Back – No need with Cook on the team. Without Cook, there is a significant need. Mattison performs and is paid like a very good backup. Ty Chandler missed 10 games, but that means he had 7 games to put some kind pressure on Mattison for RB2 and did nothing of the sort.
A quick one line run-down of position ranked by need is:
CB – Need to find 2 core contributors, one via development is likely.
LB – Only a minimum viable starter, upgrades and future should be considered
WR – Need to find at least 40% of snaps, the only on team options have major questions.
QB – Not needed for 2023 but as the post important position, will get its own look in the draft
DL – Existing puzzle pieces could be improved with a guy who is a dude.
RB – Only a need if the Vikings make it a need.
OL – All 5 starters set as well as the two backup tackles, drafting for IOL development.
S – So deep that 3 safety formations might take some pressure off CB depth.
TE – Strong and deep
ST – All signed, minimal value in depth
Two Draft Directions
The Vikings have set themselves up so that the only position that really needs another contributor is corner, but at the same time, CB, LB, WR, DL all need building blocks. This opens up two distinct draft plans. I think the Vikings have done this on purpose and won’t know which of these two paths they will follow until the draft starts to unfold.
Option 1 is to go after Cousins successor. My opinion is that the only way to do this is to target the player that you like; that means it will require the Vikings 1st round pick and probably other assets. I don’t know which QB it is they would target between Richardson, Levis and Hooker, but those are the only three I consider in this case. This is also the only way I would go after a QB, the Vikings don’t have enough picks for a dart throw on a low percentage mid rounder (and late rounders aren't even a consideration for backup status); Mullins is a fine backup.
Looking at trades:
#23 + #87 has trade value close to pick #17(Steelers) or #18 (Lions). This would give up no high value pick and jump in front of the QB needy Bucs at #19.
I don’t think giving up #87 is very likely simply because it would leave too few picks to even build depth. I also don’t like this because if the team’s conviction is that the future QB is only worth the 17th pick, I don’t think that’s a very strong conviction. More likely is something like:
#23 + 2024 2nd to get to #14-16 depending on how badly teams want to trade back
Or
#23 + 2024 1st to potentially get up as high as #10
Those are options to put the Vikings in rage to pick anywhere from #10-18 giving up only one pick. Assuming they don’t give it up, pick #87 and #119 become developmental guys or, more likely, special teams. I’d guess LB and DB based on the current roster situation. I would also watch for a trade like this:
Vikings Give: #87 + #158 + #211 (189 pts)
49ers Give: #99 + #102 + (196 pts) Depending on who falls to 87, the 49ers could pay a bit of a premium, or they could swap #101 out for #99 and the trade is exactly even on points. That gives the Vikings #99, 101, and 118 to fill in the three glaring needs at CB and LB.
In this situation, I’m going to assume Nailor or Reagor develops at WR because there just aren’t enough picks to go around. Based on NFL Mock Draft Database Consensus big board, some guys that fit that position and profile (Consensus big board rank):
95 – CB – Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson – Super athletic but smaller than the Vikings target and seems to be a consensus he will be gone by then, but he’s in the range if he falls a few pick.
102 – CB - Eli Ricks – Alabama: a 6’2” press man CB in need of some polish
112 – CB – Kyu Blu Kelly – Standford: maybe more athletic than Rick if that’s what the team wants
101 – LB – Nick Herbig Wisconsin: maybe more of an OLB than ILB, but good production
103 – LB - DeMarvin Overshown – Texas: Safety turned LB if you want a fast guy in coverage.
107 – LB - Noah Sewell – Penei’s brother, more powerful than fast, but I’d be all for a twice a year Sewell matchup.
I’m not thrilled with relying on contribution from those CBs, but the LBs are why I like this plan. There is a good variety of play style right in range the Vikings would be targeting; they're right in the 2nd tier of LB and it's not unrealistic to think one could contribute.
Option 2 is a Build the Current team approach. For all the talk of Vikings targeting a QB, their moves suggest they think there is a strong possibility it doesn’t happen. If they don’t draft a QB, I expect they will extend Cousins and lock him is as the starter for 2023 and 2024. As a general rule, it’s worth it to convert bonuses of players you think will be on the team next year (you get the future year cap discount without the dead cap implications). Consider Brian O’Niell, one of the few guys who is a near lock to be a Viking in 2024. The fact that they converted Cousins $20M bonus before they converted O’Niell’s $14.4M base salary says they think there is a strong chance the Vikings think Cousins is back. The Vikings could have opened up about 2/3 of the cap space they did with Cousins by converting O’Niell’s salary; plus a few smaller moves and they have the same 2023 flexibility.
Because of that I’m going to take 2024 into account in this draft as well. In this case (Where to Pick), I’m going to try and make 3 picks in the top 70 (or as close as I can to the top 70 as I realistically can to get what I want). How might I get that with current pick values of:
#23 = 245 pts
#87 = 48 pts
#119 = 24 pts
317 pts total.
Kwesi has said that he views the draft as an auction, so getting to 3 in the top 75 would likely require multiple trades; the Vikings made 3 trade in this range last year (and because of that, I’m not even going to try to project every possible permutation of trade scenarios). However, here are few hypothetical pick hauls that would have nearly the same point value as what the Vikings have now:
#35 + #67 + #69 = 316 pts
#40 + #58 + #71 = 318 pts
#42 + #54 + #66 = 316 pts
#31 + #71 + #78 = 317 pts (I’m going a bit outside the top 70 to get one pick with a 5th year option)
A look at some players that would fall in those ranges (again, using the Mock Draft database consensus big board), it becomes a game of mix and match from the players below to fit the draft slots in the trade scenarios above:
Cornerback
#36 Cam Smith – Big, outside corner
#38 Kelee Ringo – Super athletic, but not polished
#53 DJ Turner – fast, but small feisty guy
#59 Julius Brents – tall, but NFL.com says he a zone guy without top end speed
#73 Tyrique Stevenson – Big and, strong and pretty athletic as well
#81 Garrett Williams – Average size and athleticism, with good technique
Linebacker:
#40 Drew Sanders – pass rushing ILB
#43 Jack Campbell – powerful LB built to be in the box
#45 Trenton Simpson – speed for days if he can get to the right spot
#71 Daiyan Henley – high effort with good production
#80 Henry To’oto’o – a steady technician
Wide Receiver:
#39 Jalin Hayatt – the #1 graded WR on NFL.com
#49 Josh Downs – small framed dynamic athlete
#65 Cedrick Tillman – big competitive outside guy
#72 Marvin Mims – Tall and athletic, but questions about is role in a spread translating
#75 Rashed Rice – good enough measurable traits, but inconsistent
Defensive Line
#34 Mazi Smith – plays bigger than his 323lbs suggest
#56 Tuli Tuipulotu – DT / DE combo guy
#62 Keeanu Benton – powerful 4 year starter
#66 Siaki Ika – I can’t do better than the first line of his profile: “Girthy interior force”
Some Player combos that could give the Vikings with their first 3 picks:
DT Mazi Smith + WR Cedrick Tillman + LB Henry To’oto’o
CB Cam Smith + LB Daiyan Henley + WR Rashed Rice
LB Drew Sanders + CB Julius Brents + DT Siaki Ika
Midwinter Viking Approach
at some point I have to split from what I think the Vikings are doing, to what I would do in this situation. If I were running this draft, the approach I would be:
1) QB - I'll rely on scouts for the QB call. For this take, I'm going to assume that the QB I want is out of reach and goes before my trade window at 10 opens. If Will Levis or Anthony Richardson make it to 10 and the Vikings want to say he's their guy, I'll be perfectly happy if they take a swing, but I consider option 2 more likely. So I'll add 2 years to Cousins contract.
2) I'm keeping Dalvin Cook and ZaDarius Smith. I want good players, not pointless cap space to spend on [whoever is left]. With no first rounders, the rookie class below will have minimal cost to sign, and some space will be opened with a Hockenson extension.
3) Draft Pick Trades - I'd be trying to get into the mid-late 30's and allow myself 2 picks in the late 60's to early 70's. (Something like this option: #35 + #67 + #69 = 316 pts)
4) My Pick targets (That's right, I buried my actual mock draft 2,300 words into a 2,500 word post. I roll my own way.)
Pick 1: LB – Trenton Simpson – He’s fallen through the draft process, forget all the overanalyzing, I’ll put as much speed on the field as I can every down. In college he lined up on the line, in the box and in slot coverage. If I can get him early – mid second, even better. This feels like a perfect player / need / position combo to kick off my draft.
Pick 2: CB - Tyrique Stevenson – Big, athletic, and physical. His downside is that he makes mistakes in zone, something were’ supposedly not going to do much of.
Pick 3: WR – Marvin Mims – a 4.38 speed, yard after catch, 21 year old junior. He ran in a spread offense and has a limited route tree, and I don’t care at all about that limitation – the Vikings have a dude to run every route. Mims doesn’t have to do everything, but if he does one or two things he’d be immensely valuable.
5) My Backup Plan: I have to have an alternative if those guys are gone. If Trenton Simpson goes early, I'll pivot to
Alternate Pick 1: CB - Cam Smith - I still want big, fast and aggressive, I'll just get it at CB instead of LB
Alternate Pick 2: DT - Siaki Ika - I'll bolster the defense with Ika instead of Simpson and watch for LB depth on the cheap.
Alternate Pick 3: Can I still get Marvin Mims? No. Please? Still no. Ok, did Cedrick Tillman fall? No. Fine, I'll target LB - Noah Sewell, and try to add a few extra 4th-6th round picks for special teams.
There is my complete draft plan, who else would you mix and match from those pick choices?
... and neither is this Chris guy.