Post by MidwinterViking on Aug 2, 2023 20:49:59 GMT -6
Hicks being able to keep up with him is a bad sign. I think the fascination with Mattison in the passing game has mostly to do with his pass protection skills, and while he does have good hands, explosiveness is so important to getting open and he simply doesn't have that.
I think the Jets game also had some important illustrations. Mattison only had 5 touches, but 3 of them are very interesting. In game order they are:
2 High Safeties?
This is a 1st and 15 play after a penalty. The play goes for a gain of 3. This snap is taken just after Mattison (Purple Arrow) caught the ball:
On this play, the reception is really well blocked; some of the normal complaints about screens and swing passes being set up so poorly that the defense sees them coming a mile away don't apply here. All three blockers got a hat on their man. You can see the influence of Jefferson on the bottom of the screen - look how many defenders are rolled to his side and the defense has two high safeties.
The problem with this play isn't the call, set up or blocking: all three blocks held up. The defender who makes the tackle is actually the safety with the green arrow. This is where Mattison's lack of explosion comes into play; to me, this looks like it's blocked for at least a gain of 5, maybe a lot more if Mattison can make that safety miss once he has a full head of steam. But the result is only a 3 yard gain.
There is a much more strategic problem with this play: the whole point of signing Josh Oliver was to force the defense out of two high safeties so Jefferson isn't facing the coverage he is on this play. This is a pass play but the Mattison vs a Safety matchup would be the same if it's WRs blocking DBs on a swing pass or Oliver blocking LBs on a handoff. Why would the defense ever come out of their two high alignment if a safety can just come down and tackle Mattison for a 3 yard gain once he gets the ball? If you're going to threaten the run, bring a threat to the backfield.
But EPA!
This is a 14 yard TD run by Mattison to extend the lead to 17-3. Given the Jets limited offense, this was a hammer blow in the game and it came against a very good defense.
Look at that hole! That is impressive. O'Niell and Ingram have completely stuffed their guys; Hockenson has his man pinned inside and Thielen holds up perfectly. Sauce Gardner will continue to be know for his coverage skills and not any kind of effort to fill a hole.
How many NFL RBs score on this play? It's basically a 1:1 with a safety to the end zone and the entire field to work with. This counts as an "explosive run" for Mattison, but my opinion is that it is the blockers doing 90% of the exploding here and Mattison just running through a canyon of a running lane.
My problem on this play doesn't have anything to do with Mattison, it has everything to do with "efficiency". EPA is used as an argument for Mattison's efficiency. His season total for running plays was +4.58 points. This play was Mattison's best single play of the season with a score of +2.35 points. Plays like this make it highly deceiving to just add up all the EPA and say how good a player is. EPA has a purpose, I think it's great to evaluate the impact of a one play vs another to understand the flow of a game - but I don't think it is very useful to use to compare 1 player vs another player because there are too many other factors influencing any given play.
At the same time, this play is also the argument for Mattison. If Josh Oliver make a bunch of running lanes like this, then maybe it doesn't matter. However, I will never count on having running lanes this good.
When it Matters
Over the course of the entire season, how many carries was Mattison given in the last 10 minutes of games when the Vikings were trying to hold a lead (non-blow out)? I found 2.
A 1 Yard gain vs the Saints with 5:49 left in the game and this play:
I'm not sure what to make of this play. I'm not going to put all of this on Mattison because Blake Brandle is losing his rep to the Jets DE, so I have to make some assumptions. This play is a bit of a parallel to the play Otomewo made in the tweet above. What I'm looking for is what happens when things are not blocked well?
What happens in this play is Mattison did his little stutter step / half jump cut and tried to go in between Bradbury and Brandle to theoretically follow Cleveland. That obviously didn't work and this was a 3 yard loss. This play killed the opportunity for the Vikings to close out the Jets without drama.
Where I'm making a bit of an assumption is looking at KJ Osborn. Osborn looks to be like he's coming up field to throw a lead block on a cutback lane. I have to assume Mattison would have know that was Osborn's role. What I don't know is if this was supposed to go left and the Jets just blew it up, or if the cutback lane was part of the play. It really looks like the blockers have a lot of defenders moving from right to left (seemingly on purpose), so it really makes sense to me that Mattison should have know / seen that was there.
If Mattison makes a decisive cutback, it looks like there is something there. The line of scrimmage is the purple 25, it seems like he should be able to make that. Similar to the Otomewo play, there was an inability to adjust when blocking seemed to be there for it. Or it's possible things were supposed to go left, and the Jet's just blew it up.
The Vikings in 2023
I don't understand what the Vikings are doing with the run game in 2023. When I listen to Kwesi, I listen to his action first then listen to his words. At other positions things line up. The CB position wasn't good and is completely overhauled with high cost FAs and high draft picks. The Vikings are replacing expensive vets with Asamoah, Addison and Cine. But the story at RB has so many contradictions, it makes no sense. Looking at the RB offseason.
- The Vikings wanted Mattison as their RB1... then why did you let him hit unrestricted free agency? He was your to sign for months and you didn't? And Rumors of the team pursuing David Montgomery? I don't believe them.
- Chandler is the future! ... then why didn't they find a way to get him any carries before the 4th quarter of the last game? The plan was to let Mattison walk (Mattison talked about his last game). If Chandler showed anything in practice they'd give him something in 2022. I don't believe them.
- The Vikings want to threaten the run to pull teams out of 2 High safeties to open things up for Jefferson... then sign Josh Oliver. Ok, I believe that.
- But if the plan is to threaten the run, why is "Plan A" such a non-threatening guy in Mattison? ... now I don't believe them.
Right now I view a Mattison led RB room as the biggest weakness for the team in 2023, even more than the lack of experience and unknowns at CB and thin talent at LB.
... and neither is this Chris guy.