MattiSZN 2023

“If we can run the football more efficiently and marry the run and the pass with play-pass keepers and screens and different variations of the passing game on our terms,” O’Connell said, “I think that’s going to bode well for teams that want to feature so much coverage to (superstar receiver) Justin (Jefferson).”

The why makes sense, but the how has always been uncertain. Minnesota’s rushing attack ranked 28th in the NFL in 2022, according to Football Outsider’s DVOA metric. Additionally, the Vikings tallied the highest percentage of runs for zero or negative yards of any team in the NFL.

Parting with Cook, who turns 28 in August and has started 73 NFL games, only amplifies the precariousness of what the Vikings are attempting.

Minnesota’s plan begins with its offensive front. All five of the team’s starting linemen from 2022 return this season. Six of the team’s seven backups from last year remain, too.

“The continuity up front is a huge plus,” offensive coordinator Wes Phillips said this week. “Depth and continuity for another year are huge.”

Last year, Pro Football Focus graded the Vikings’ run-blocking unit as the fourth-best in the NFL. Certain advanced metrics paint a different picture, however. In 2022, Vikings running backs averaged 1.26 yards before contact per carry, which was 25th in the league. With starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw on the field, they averaged 1.47 yards before contact per carry, which would be 21st.

Numbers aside, right tackle Brian O’Neill and center Garrett Bradbury spoke recently about the importance of continuity in their second seasons working with offensive line coach Chris Kuper and assistant offensive line coach Justin Rascati.

“The more reps you have together as an O-line,” Bradbury said, “the better you are. Experience matters a lot in the offensive line room.”

The Vikings’ staff has evaluated its overall running scheme as well. This dates back to Week 14 of last 2022, when the Vikings ran for just 22 yards on 17 carries against the Detroit Lions.

Following that game, Phillips said he wasn’t in favor of “a full revamp of the run game,” but that the team was trying to “narrow down” what it felt it had been good at. PFF tracks run-concept data, and here are the overall results from 2022:



Three statistics stand out: the Vikings’ commitment to the outside-zone concept, their lack of success on inside-zone runs and the potential upside that may exist in power runs, where fullback C.J. Ham is utilized.

In OTA sessions open to media members this spring, the Vikings have toggled with pullers even at guard, which may indicate a continued allegiance to the man plays, often referred to as gap-scheme runs.

When asked generally this week about the rushing attack, Phillips again cited a culling of the run concepts.

“We worked really hard, as all teams and coaches do, trying to narrow things down,” Phillips said, “including limiting some of the schemes that we said, ‘This is fluff, this is extra, let’s get rid of this, let’s focus on these concepts.’”

The players operating those concepts — the running backs — matter a great deal. Alexander Mattison, a third-round pick in 2019, is the clear candidate to see the majority of snaps. Though his success rate on rushing attempts ranked second among 59 running backs with at least 70 carries in 2022, Mattison also had the third-highest percentage of runs of zero or negative yards among those 59 backs.

The two most viable backups are Ty Chandler and Kene Nwangwu. Chandler, who despite being older than Mattison (25) is entering his second season, had just six carries in 2022, all coming in garbage time of the Week 18 matchup against the Chicago Bears. Chandler has the necessary speed. He ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at the combine. He is about 10 pounds lighter than Mattison, though, which may affect his ultimate three-down potential. Nwangwu, meanwhile, was a fourth-round pick in 2021 whose skill set also lends itself more to the change-of-pace style.

If there is a sleeper in the group, it’s rookie DeWayne McBride, whom the Vikings took in the seventh round of this year’s draft. UAB did not ask much of him from a receiving or blocking standpoint in college, but McBride is a naturally gifted runner who topped all draft-eligible running backs in yards after contact per attempt (4.3).

So as the depth chart currently stands, the Vikings will be replacing Cook with a group of unproven backs who have limited pro production but plenty of potential. The success of that group will hinge largely on the blocking, which depends on both the offensive linemen and the schematic plan. This was always going to be the case in the aftermath of 2022. The running game was that unproductive.

If anything, Cook’s departure is a distilling of sorts. It might not feel like a wise move on the surface, but it will emphasize all the variables that matter as the offense strives for rushing efficiency.

We’ve all seen it. Your friend is dating this guy or girl, and they’ve been together for a long time. They break up out of nowhere and everyone is wondering why they would split.

Your friend is undeterred. They start going out until they meet someone new. Their Instagram is flooded with photos of the new couple together. They’re headed to Mexico next week! They seem happy, but not as happy as the person they dumped.

This is what we call New Girlfriend Syndrome, and the Minnesota Vikings are experiencing it as they transition from Dalvin Cook to Alexander Mattison.

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Then there was this past season when Cook was one of the most inefficient running backs in the league. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars had more runs go for negative yards or no gain last season. Cook was dead last among running backs with a minimum of 130 carries with 200 yards below average.

Mix in the fact he’ll turn 28 in August and is on a massive contract Rick Spielman doled out, it’s understandable why the Vikings decided it was best to part ways.

Or in this case, break up.

That’s where things have gotten weird. The Vikings replaced Cook with Mattison on their team banner months before Cook’s release. Kevin O’Connell also praised Mattison’s “three-down abilities” during OTAs, and fantasy football writers are falling over themselves while trying to usher in “MATTISON RB1 SZN.”

Leaning on Mattison has its merits as he’s matched Cook’s production when given the opportunity. According to The Athletic’s Alec Lewis, Mattison second among 59 running backs in success rate last season while Cook ranked 51st. Mattison also had a 45.9% success rate on non-explosive runs (20 yards or fewer) and had 14.8% of his attempts go for chunk gains (runs of eight to 12 yards).

By comparison, Cook logged a 33.2% success rate on non-explosive runs while only 10.2% of his runs went for chunk gains.

This efficiency can help the Vikings in that it gives O’Connell more options as a play-caller. With Cook usually stuffed on first down, O’Connell was forced into more second-and-long situations that required him to throw more than he would like. If Mattison can be a consistent presence on the ground, O’Connell can open up the playbook, tilting the time of possession in his favor with more runs and eliminating the need for fourth-quarter comebacks.

But these stats come with the small sample size that Mattison has seen throughout his career. Since logging 100 carries during his rookie year in 2019, Mattison’s only other season with over 100 carries came in 2021, where he averaged only 3.7 yards per carry.

Mattison also made four starts during that season but showed the same inefficiencies as Cook did last year. If we include a 20-carry performance against the Seattle Seahawks where Mattison relieved an injured Cook, 58% of Mattison’s carries have gone for three or fewer yards when pressed into a starter’s role.

While Mattison logs a 29% rate on runs that went for four to eight yards, only 8% of his runs went for chunk plays and 10% of his runs went for 12 yards or more. Adding those up, only 42% of Mattison’s runs as a starter could be deemed as efficient runs.

There’s also the mystery of why Mattison didn’t get more playing time last season. Even if the Vikings weren’t in a position to run the ball more due to Cook’s inefficiency, Mattison probably should have taken over at some point instead of logging a career-low 74 carries.

There’s also the report that the Vikings contacted David Montgomery before he signed with the Detroit Lions this offseason, making the hype for Mattison even weirder.

Then again, it’s not like the Vikings have someone else they can build up. Ty Chandler starred during last year’s preseason but didn’t carve out a role after suffering a broken hand. DeWayne McBride follows the same path Isiah Pacheco followed to become a prototype for general managers looking to build a cheaper backfield, but a seventh-round pick isn’t guaranteed to become a success in his rookie season.

Even Kene Nwangwu’s increased usage during OTAs feels like a last-ditch effort to get him involved on offense as opposed to the prelude for a breakout.

In the end, this could leave the Vikings just like that friend of yours. They like what have now, but it’s not as good as what they had. While they’ll never show it, they wish they could go back, but both sides appear to be happy.

If that’s the outcome for the Vikings backfield, they’ll gladly take it. But if Mattison’s flaws seep through like that friend that leaves the toilet seat up, Minnesota could be caught in a rough situation.

Minnesota Vikings: RB Alexander Mattison

Mattison, selected by the Vikings in the third round of the 2019 draft out of Boise State, has never seen more than 134 carries in a season through his NFL career. Last season, as the second man in a rotation with Dalvin Cook, he had just 74 carries, totaling 283 yards and scoring five touchdowns on the ground. Mattison’s prospects look to change significantly after Cook’s recent release, and he appears to be ready for the jump. On those 74 carries, Cook was good for eight explosive plays (10 or more yards), he averaged 2.76 yards after contact per carry, and he forced 23 missed tackles. About half of them may have come on this 11-yard run against the Bears in Week 18, when Mattison seemed determined to take Chicago’s entire defense with him.

Mattison isn’t quite as explosive as Cook, but he is absolutely the kind of hammerhead back you can go with in critical situations. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has said that he sees Mattison as an every-down back, and now, it’s time to find out.