How do you grade the Vikings' 2023 free agency?

On Monday the sportsbook DraftKings posted its over-under totals and the Minnesota Vikings’ opening number is set a 8.5 wins. There are five NFC teams ahead of them and two more tied.

Of course, this is only a starting point. Last year around this time the Vikings’ win total was also set at 8.5 and the line moved up before opening day. But it’s also emblematic of how much talent they have lost this offseason from their 13-win 2022 club — and with few sure-thing answers about who’s replacing the lost snaps.

Kevin Cole, formerly of PFF and now author of the Unexpected Points newsletter, posted his metric called “Improvement Index,” which puts a point estimate on how much a team has lost or gained in talent during the offseason. The Vikings rank as having lost the fifth most production versus what they have added in free agency.



But Cole’s balance sheet is only based on who’s gone out vs. who’s come in. What about the players who are already here? What about those who can still arrive via free agency or the draft?

Let’s go player by player and look at the succession plan for the Vikings who have left via free agency thus far and the plans to replace them…

Patrick Peterson

Snaps: 1,104

PFF grade: 80.7

Key stat: 66.8 QB rating against

While Peterson might not have been an ideal fit for Brian Flores’s defensive scheme and it was likely best for both parties to end his time in Minnesota on a high note, he leaves behind pretty big shoes to fill. Peterson graded as the sixth best corner in the NFL by PFF in 2022. He was second in INTs, 10th in pass breakups and sixth in passer rating allowed. Whew.

Current Replacement: Andrew Booth Jr.

We can’t expect that type of showing from Andrew Booth Jr. but the 2022 second-round pick, who is expected to be healthy by training camp after a season-ending knee injury, will need to shine in order for the Vikings to put together a competitive coverage unit. As a rookie he flashed some skill in training camp but had a stop-and-start year, only seeing 105 total snaps and allowing 13 receptions on 15 targets into his coverage. Health will be a massive factor for the ex-Clemson star taking a leap forward in Year 2.

Dalvin Tomlinson

Snaps: 550

PFF grade: 77.1

Key stat: 33 pressures (third on the team)

The Vikings’ brass talked openly about wanting Tomlinson back and it’s not hard to see why. He graded 14th overall among defensive tackles by PFF and, surprisingly, had the eighth highest pass rush grade. While he wasn’t a sack machine, he did make good on the “pushes the pocket” claims that were made when the Vikings signed him and the ex-Giant seemed to be getting better at pass rushing with each passing year.

Current Replacement: Dean Lowry…and friends

If Lowry gets back to 2021 form rushing the passer, he can replace a lot of the snaps and pressure left behind by Tomlinson. If he can’t, well, the Vikings are going to be scrambling at that position unless they draft an interior rusher in the first round. They acquired Ross Blacklock last year during training camp but he was only on the field for 117 pass rush snaps and it’s hard to say what the Vikings have in ex-Gopher Esezi Otomewo. On the run defense front, Khyiris Tonga and Jonathan Bullard should be able to fill the gaps left by the big man who exited for Cleveland.

Adam Thielen

Snaps: 1,042

PFF grade: 65.0

Key stat: Ranked second on the team with 103 targets

Thielen’s numbers faded at the end of the season but through 15 weeks he was a consistent second option, gaining at least four passes nine times before only grabbing four total in the final three games. While never had a signature breakout game, 70 receptions with only one drop and a 95.0 passer rating on throws into his coverage is all solid production. However, he did only catch four passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air and went 4-for-15 on contested catches per PFF.

Current Replacement: KJ Osborn

We could argue that the replacement will be taken with the 23rd overall pick but it’s far from a certainty that Mr. WR2 is going to be available at that point and that he will be ready to take on a heavy workload alongside Justin Jefferson. The safe WR2 guess is KJ Osborn, who surged toward the end of last season with 25 receptions over the final four weeks. Osborn has back-to-back seasons with 600-plus yards and has a career 106.0 QB rating when targeted. The next man up past Osborn is the real question. If the Vikings pick a receiver, will he be able to contribute right away? If not, will Jalen Reagor, Jalen Nailor and Brandon Powell fight for the job? If not them, who? Will the Vikings simply not use WR3 on the field as much like in the Stefanski-Kubiak era? Is there a bigger move waiting in the wings or a free agent who might be overlooked? Major questions about that spot persist.

The bottom line

The Vikings are not on the positive side of the ledger with their moves so far this offseason but there are areas where they could get better. We still don’t know if Marcus Davenport is replacing Za’Darius Smith or rotating in with him and the same goes for Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. In those situations, it would be almost impossible for Davenport to top Smith’s 2022, though a running back rotation could end up being more efficient than Cook’s 2022.

Where the roster goes from here — with limited remaining cap space and draft capital — will determine whether they can make it to the plus side of Cole’s chart. Whether they can actually be a better team really rests on the 2022 draft class. If players like Booth Jr., Asamoah, Lewis Cine, Ed Ingram and Akayleb Evans end up improving in Year 2, the blow of key losses will be softened significantly. If not, it’s going to be extremely hard to patch over all the weaknesses.