2023 Vikings Mock Offseason!

Nice work. I'll have to look at this more when I'm on a PC instead of my phone.

Although I will weigh in on your Kendricks decision. I wonder how close to a coin-flip him staying / being cut really is. Kendricks problem last year seemed to be more that he was reading things slowly or in a position where he was chasing a receiver across the field (a footrace almost any LB will lose). So I'm not entirely sure how much it waa his physical abilities have fallen off vs problems with Donatell's scheme.

That said, even in the most generous assessment of Kendricks, when I look at the free agent linebackers, I think the Vikings could get someone the same or bettee and 4-6 years younger for the same cap 2023 cap hit. So for me, the cut Kendricks / add someone else is more about adding a player for 2023-2025 than cap consideration in 2023.

I know how much time/effort goes into thinking all of this through and then typing it out in a thread, and so for that work/effort you get two thumbs up!

I'll touch on some things I like, some things I question and a few items where I'm not sure the money-part exactly works out...

First, some "money" items:

- Cook 2023 Cap Savings: you mentioned that cutting Dalvin Cook saves the Vikes $5.9m in 2023 cap space, which is true IF the Vikings release him after $2m of his 2023 base salary becomes guaranteed on 3/17. Surely, the Vikings would release him before that 3/17 deadline so they could realize more 2023 cap savings and if they do that, the cap savings jumps to $7.9m against only $6.2m in dead cap space. I know the OTC website has it listed as $5.9m, but you need to pay attention to that guaranteed salary portion and the date, so the Spotrac website is better at looking at cap savings vs dead money.

- $7m in 2023 savings from Kendricks extension: just curious how the extension is structured to save the $7m in cap in 2023; is it converting '23 base salary into a signing bonus and spreading that out over 2023, 2024, 2025 & 2026 (void year) and how much other guaranteed money in the 2-yr/$16m is guaranteed that will also need to be prorated? Keep in mind he already has a $1.9m restructure cap hit in '23 from a restructure in 2020.

Items I really like:

- Moving on from Cook & Thielen: one the primary reasons why I like this is that it almost "forces" O'Connell to get more creative instead of relying on the 'ol crutches of Cook & Thielen to carry them through. I think back to the 2017 season when we didn't have AP anymore and then Cook went down early in the season; OC Pat Shurmur was "forced" to go with McKinnon & Murray in the backfield and he struck a very nice balance between throwing/rushing between the WR's and those two RB's that was arguably the most balanced Viking offense we've had in a long time. When you think of the SF & Philly offenses that found successs in 2022, both were very well balanced and I keep thinking O'Connell needs to find that nice balance between the passing and rushing attacks to keep opposing defenses guessing which way the attacks will come from.

- Keeping Dalvin Tomlinson: especially in an aggressive one-gap Flores defense. Tomlinson showed his pass-rushing chops moreso in 2022 and he could have even more success as a base 3-4 DE that attacks the B-gap like Christian Wilkins did for Miami under Flores.

Items I really question:

- Extending Kendricks: you mentioned that in a Flores scheme, Kendricks will be covering RB's & TE's more and I'm not sure I agree on two fronts: 1) Kendrick's coverage ability fell off a cliff in 2022, dropping from a PFF cov grade of 72.6 in '21 to just 46.4 in 2022 - he didn't pass the "eye test" when watching the games and he surely didn't grade out that way via PFF, either, and 2) the Flores scheme does call for at least one of the LB's to rush the passer more than Kendricks has done in the past and while Asamoah can do that, I think with him being younger he would be the "sideline-to-sideline" LB to chase down RB's which would leave Kendricks to rush the QB, something he hasn't been asked to do much of in the past, even under Zimmer's "Double-A" gap looks. I'm not sure Eric is a good fit for an aggressive defense that Flores wants to bring to Minnesota.

- Restructuring Harrison Smith: kicking more cap dollars into the '24 & '25 seasons for a 34-yr old DB who's probably on the decline may not be the best idea. I think most Viking fans agree that Harrison might thrive a bit in a Flores defense (ie, playing more in the box where Zimmer aligned him and where he's most effective vs playing FS), but I don't think many fans would want to restructure Harry's contract to push more into the future as we look to the possibility of Lewis Cine taking on more responsibility in 2023.

- Extending Boyd: while Boyd is decent on ST and is allegedly a great "locker room guy", I think the chances of us finding a depth DB on the open market or even on Day 3 of the Draft are relatively high, especially when you now created over $50m+ of available cap space and can afford to pay a bit more of a premium for a "better" depth DB.

- The Center position: you didn't address one of the big "elephants in the room" when it comes to 2023 offseason decisions and that's the decision on resigning Bradbury to play OC for the future, going with a free agent or addressing this with an early round pick in the 2023 Draft. I'm assuming that you'll sign a FA this offseason since it wasn't mentioned, but you could argue that since the Vikings have continued to have interior OL difficulties in the Cousins era, this decision does have some significant ramifications for success in 2023. 

I'll be interested in how you spend that $50m+ in available cap space, even after you've spent some of it with extensions of Tomlinson, Jefferson and others.

You're right on that - I can't see tweets during the day while I'm at work and I see them on my phone, so definitely my bad there.

I also think you're pretty close on Shelley's contract value at $3.5m per season: I was thinking earlier this offseason that I can't see anyone giving Shelley a sizeable contract for an outside CB given his physical frame and that he's only played for 1/2 of a season at that level for Minnesota in 2022 (his 400 snaps in 2021 for Chicago all came in the slot). So Shelley is probably going to have to sign a "prove-it" sort of deal in the $2m-$3m range for 1 season before he gets a sizeable 3-4 yr contract. If he was a RFA this offseason, the Vikings would likely put a "Right of First Refusal" tag on Shelley the cost of that in 2023 is $2.6m; the 1st and 2nd Rd tenders are too much (2nd Rd tender cost is $4.3m and no one is signing Shelley for $4m and giving us a 2nd Rd pick) so his value in 2023 is probably in that $2m-$3m range, and I could possibly see locking him up for that 2nd year at a cheap rate knowng that if he plays at a high level again in 2023, the Vikings have locked him in for 2024 at a very affordable deal they can then negotiate an extention in the '24 offseason.

Danchat Yeah, I think that's where they're at. 2024 cap is actually in a fine place after all these moves, especially after moving off of Thielen and Cook and pushing back the bigger hits on the JJ and Hock extensions.
$31m AAV would re-set the market, should be plenty if its inked before Bosa's, but what're your thoughts $$ wise?
Could see Dalvin getting more but I'd think the Front Office feels they can find a reasonable middle ground if they pushed his void date.
And yeah, I get it, but I think the Kendricks part could be a little more likely than people think. I could just as easily see him being cut, it's a weird deal to just not touch in my opinion. I like Al-Shaiir or Germaine Pratt if they cut EK just think they should have a quality vet in the LB room.
Thanks for the read, man.

Spot on Daunte.

The OP here is thinkin' about a 2-yr/$7m deal and I'm thinking a 1-yr/$2-$3m deal for Shelley - I'm not sure I would consider that "all-in", but more of a "prove-it" sort of contract.

He played 400+ snaps for Chicago in the slot in 2021 and graded out below average and then he plays 1/2 a season on the outside for Minnesota and grades out excellently and made a big impact breaking up several TD pass attempts. I don't think anyone will give him more than $4m per season as an outside CB so his best bet to earning a decent 3-4 yr contract w/ guaranteed money is to earn that outside CB job in the offseason and play an entire season up to a solid level.

One thing that I think is understated in this and most other offseason plans I see is the impact on 2024 of cutting Thielen and Harrison Smith now. Normally I'm in favor of building the 2023 roster for 2023, but looking at the savings for those two players.

Adam Thielen
Cut Now
2023 cap savings: $6.4M
2024 cap hit: $0
2024 cap savings: $21.6M

Cut next offseason
2024 dead cap hit: $7.0M
2024 cap savings: $14.6M

Harrison Smith
Cut Now
2023 cap savings: $7.4M
2024 cap hit: $0
2024 cap savings:$19.2M

Cut next offseason
2024 dead cap hit: $7.8M
2024 cap savings: $11.4M

Smith and Thielen will cost a combined $39.1M this year + $14.8M in 2024 dead cap next year if they're kept. That's nearly $54M for 1 season of two declining players.

Part of the reason I'm more inclined to keep Dalvin Cook is because his 2024 dead cap hit would only be $3.1M. So even though his decline in skill is similar to Smith and Thielen, the long term pain of using him as a 1 year mercenary is much lower.