With the 23rd pick, your Minnesota Vikings select...

FSU knows the WRs best, but Johnston scares me a little. I think he's a bit like Tee Higgins or Chase Claypool: talent looks like early round 1 but lack polish and have too much bust factor to be comfortable. I think he would be scary to pick in round 1. But, yeah - if he works on his game and improves, he might be the best WR from this year.

If I go back and look at my notes from the college season (in the Draft/College subforum), I remember not really getting all the Johnston hype that was being billed towards the end of the season. Because TCU ended up being one of the "darling" stories of the 2022 season, I ended up watching a whole bunch of them during their final run, including a come-from-behind win at Baylor, both games against Kansas St and the road game at Texas and although Johnston was able to beat-out CB Julius Brents (Day 2 CB prospect from Kansas St) in both of their matchups, I got way too many Laquon Treadwell flashbacks with all of the drops he had. Specifically in the Baylor game - even though it came out he sustained a knee injury - he was practically benched because of his drop issue. Per the PFF Draft Guide, his drop rate was 11.8% and anything in double-digits is a red flag. The #1 job of a WR in the NFL is to actually catch the ball, with #2 (or sometimes 1A) having the ability to gain separation and other than his non-coachable athletic traits, he doesn't possess either at this stage and that screams developmental WR you don't draft in Round 1.

Where Johnston does shine is the shallow crossers that he can catch in-stride and take to the house with his home-run athleticism. The one highlight of him taking a shallow crosser in the CFP Semifinal against Michigan - in which Michigan CB DJ Turner, a 2023 Day 2 CB prospect took a bad angle - is what Johnston does best at this point; sort of like how Denver used Demaryius Thomas during the Payton Manning era - throw him a bubble screen and let his athletcism take over.

I think it was a real eye-opener for some to see Brugler have him as WR5 behind Smith-Njigba, Addison, Hyatt and Flowers in the "Beast" Draft Guide, but I think Round 2 is probably where he should go...

...and because of the lack of an Alabama/LSU/Ohio St WR1 in this year's class (sorry, Smith-Njigba is no Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave or even Marvin Harrison, Jr), Johnston may very well be overdrafted.

This WR class might be similar to the 2019 class in which there wasn't a clear-cut WR1, but you had a very balanced and deep class that extended into early Day 3. That class had Marquise Brown and N'Keal Harry as the only WR's drafted in Round 1, but behind that you had Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, Mecole Hardman, Parris Campbell & DK Metcalf in Round 2, Diontae Johnson & Terry McLaurin in Round 3 and Hunter Renfrow & Darius Slayton go early on Day 3. While it's hard to envision the Day 2 WR prospects in the 2023 Draft class becoming AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Diontae Johnson or Terry McLaurin, I do think there's better "value" in the 2023 WR class on Day 2/early Day 3 than Round 1 and to me, Johnston represents Exhibit A of that opinion...

After reading that, I have a sneaking suspicion he's going to end up in Minnesota.  Already accurate. Not afraid of pressure, and more mobile than what we have. Not a bad candidate to sit behind Cousins for a year and hand the reigns to when he leaves. 

Uncle, shame on me for forgetting your draft acumen for a moment! Great Johnston analysis, and this:

should be tattooed on the arm of every NFL scout and GM.

I think the age has more to do with development and upside than longevity. Even if it sounds arbitrary, teams see 21/22 year old prospects as having "more room to grow". I had read some notes on Cleveland's analytically advanced draft scouting, and players are given strikes for being too old, they don't like spending 1st or 2nd round picks on older prospects. Hooker is probably an exception, I have to imagine even with his background KAM is not knocking him due to it. I do think it's worth noting the last two 25+ year old QB prospects that were drafted were total flops (Brandon Weeden 27 and Ryan Finley 25). Two examples is obviously not close to enough to prove a trend, of course.

Also, I saw this random tidbit in Dane Brugler's draft guide on Hooker:



Looks like this isn't a problem, but it wouldn't be the first time teams dropped a guy from their board due to a potential heart issue (Maurice Hurst, Trey Smith was similar).

Where does it say he is more mobile? The guy said he had never evaluated someone with less movement outside the pocket.

He basically looks at the defense and decides where to throw the ball before the snap. The defenses will challenge that and he will have to process several reads before deciding where to throw .


This is what hampered Teddy, Ponder and TJ. Teddy and Ponder both were touted as intelligent and ahead of the class at reading defenses yet both were very hesitant and that was their downfall