Post by whoskmoon on Jan 7, 2023 16:57:59 GMT -6
Vikings fans have all heard the stories about last season and the “culture of fear” Mike Zimmer propagated in the locker room. They know Zimmer’s vaunted defense was no longer feared, particularly at the end of the half when the Vikings defense gave up a massive amount of points in the final two minutes of each half. Fans of the Vikings also remember the sub .500 record and missing the playoffs for the second straight season, leading to both the general manage and head coach being fired. Not for being terrible, it can get a lot worse than being one game below .500 and having a -1 point differential, but for not doing enough to make the Vikings competive and having the Vikings headed in the wrong direction.
Cut to 2022 with a new young head coach and a new young general manager. The “culture of fear” was replaced with a culture of “collaboration” and the team was run back with most of the same faces on the field. Additions of Zadarius Smith, Jordan Hicks and Harrison Phillips on the defense to go along with Danielle Hunter returning from a season ending injury were meant to be enough to improve the defense to at least be respectable, and the offense remained relatively unchanged from a talent perspective. After all, the offensive problems were thought to be mostly the fault of an inexperienced play caller who only got the job of offensive coordinator because of nepitism, and Baby Kubes was gone and on his way to Denver. The scheme not talent was at fault, and the second coming of Sean Mcvay was going to fix most, if not all of the Vikings’ offensive problems.
It certainly seemed that way after week one too. The Vikings blew out the reigning NFC North Champs in a decisive victory in a game where every facet of the team played well from start to finish. It was everything Vikings fans could hope for and it was also the last time that would happen. The Vikings would follow that massive victory up with a dud against what would become the best team in the NFC and while they would then go on to win six straight, the outcome of nearly every one of those games was in question until the final few minutes of the game, regardless of the quality of opponent. They were winning those close games though, and something was indeed different. Fast forward to week 18 with the Vikings looking to fall into the number three or number two seed with a 12-4 record, the best since 2017, and clearly something is different than the past couple of seasons.
What is it though? Did KOC’s flashy new offense really fix the issues of 2022 of long scoring draughts where not only did the offense fail to put up points, but frequently went three and out as well? Putting an injury riddled defense on the field far too often and allowing teams too many opportunities to take advantage of a bad run defense? No, that wasn’t it. In fact, the offense of 2022 couldn’t be more similar to the offense of 2021.
Above are the offensive drive stats for both the 2021 and 2022 Vikings’ seasons and in nearly every metric the team is identical save a couple of important and suprising ones. The Vikings are turning the ball over at a signficantly higher rate this year than last, but winning more? It defies all statistical probability with turnovers by far being the most accurate predictor of wins and losses. The other other metric the 2021 team is significantly different than the 2022 one in is also very surprising. The Vikings offense had a larger lead on more of their drives than the 2022 Vikings and lost at least four more games. Again, how is that possible?
Maybe it is because the defense is much better? After all, it has been relatively healthy all season and the Vikings upgraded at four starting spots on defense.
Nope, the defense is actually worse or nearly identical again to 2021. Including in the all important turnover stat surprisingly. It is a bad defense and Ed Donatell will almost undoubtably be fired after the season, so how is this team winning so many more games? Looking at more advanced stats things even get more confusing. DVOA, a stat that takes into account opponent and situation when evaluating a team’s performance absolutely hates the Vikings performance in 2022, and was much kinder to them in 2021.
One thing about DVOA is that it overvalues sacks in its calculations and since the Vikings in 2021 had 21 more sacks than their opponents while in 2022 they have 10 fewer, it might explain the large difference in DVOA. Still, giving up more sacks on offense and getting fewer on defense should lead to fewer wins, not more, so even if you factor that in it doesn’t explain why the Vikings are so much worse in DVOA stats but so much better in their record. Even more unexplainable is the difference in strength of schedule between the two years. This year’s team has actually played a more difficult schedule than 2021 which should have lead to fewer wins not more.
The stats say the scheme is not better or worse this year than last on both offense and is actually worse on defense, but the record implies both are significantly better. Or possibly the record is saying something else. Perhaps, situational play calling and execution is just that much better this year than last. The Vikings lost a lot of close games in 2021 afterall, typically because of failures to get a stop or to score at the end of the game. Diving into close game situations, and the stats for the team at the end of close games, there is again no evidence to support the 2022 team is significantly better at the end of the game than the 2021 team was. Going back to the gripe on Zimmer’s defense at the end of halves and how bad it was at stopping teams from scoring, people like to point out how bad it was specifically in the final two minutes of the half. Is it any better now? Yes, and no.
2021
TDs: 15 (Most)
FGs: 7 (12th Most)
Plays: 234 (Most)
Yds: 4.8 (Most)
1st Down Percentage: 30.3 (2nd highest)
Turonver Percentage: .4% (2nd lowest)
2022
TDs: 5 (12th Most)
FGs: 10 (2nd Most)
Plays: 176 (11th Most)
Yds: 5.3 (Most)
1st Down Percentage: 29.0% (3rd highest)
Turnover Percentage: 4% (3rd highest)
The Vikings are giving up fewer points in that situation, but also have been in that spot fewer times. They are also somehow giving up even more yards in that spot in 2022 than they did in 2021, but turnovers have played a huge part in keeping the scores low (relative to the 2021 Vikings if not to the rest of the league). Still pretty bad in that spot in 2022 all things considered. Here with the turnovers there is finally something pointing to why the Vikings have a better record in 2022 at least though.
The Vikings have been better at scoring TDs in the 4th this year than last, scoring the most of any team in the 4th quarter at 19. That is nine more than last year and likely the biggest reason for the difference in record. The question still remains why they are scoring more TDs though. Not because they are moving the ball better, the 2021 Vikings averaged 4.5 yards per play compared to the 2022 Vikings 4.4. Not because of better pass protection either. The Vikings have given up 13 sacks so fart this season in the 4th compared to 6 last season. Not because the QB is throwing downfield more in that spot. Kirk Cousins has averaged 11.95 yards per completion in the 4th this year, compared to…11.95 in 2021. Justin Jefferson isn’t being targetted more, with 45 targets in 2022 and 42 in 2021. Dalvin Cook has also been worse in 2022 in that spot than 2021 averaging nearly a half a yard less per attempt.
Worse offensive line play, nearly identical QB and WR efficiency, lesser play from the running back but nine more touchdowns and four more wins. How and is that success sustainable?
Going back to the “culture of fear” of Zimmer versus the “culture of collaberation” that KOC and Kwesi have established this season, could that be the reason for success? Looking at the numbers it almost has to be a part of it. KOC had the team believing that they can win every game going into the season, and once they actually started winning some close games, that belief grew even more. It isn’t sustainable, eventually the Vikings will fail at winning a close game and doubt will creep in, but it certainly is playing a factor now.
One other thing might be playing a factor in the Vikings going 12-4 versus 8-9. In 2021 the PFF had the Vikings graded out as the 15th best overall team in the NFL and this year they have them as the 4th highest graded team. According to PFF, the talent has just gotten better and that is difference. This would make sense with their record, they have about the 4th best record in the NFL and in 2021 they had about the 15th best, but one would think that if the team really was that good, there would be other stats to go along with that grade.
In the end, even if the numbers don’t say KOC has improved the Vikings over what the previous regime was doing last season, it is still a great sign he has improved their record and the team’s resolve over what the 3rd most winningest coach in Vikings history did last season. It is clear the Vikings needed a new voice in that locker room and that Zimmer’s time in MN had run its course, and while KOC will eventually need to take that next step as a head coach and start building a team that is capable of winning it all, 2022 is a great first step to doing just that.
Cut to 2022 with a new young head coach and a new young general manager. The “culture of fear” was replaced with a culture of “collaboration” and the team was run back with most of the same faces on the field. Additions of Zadarius Smith, Jordan Hicks and Harrison Phillips on the defense to go along with Danielle Hunter returning from a season ending injury were meant to be enough to improve the defense to at least be respectable, and the offense remained relatively unchanged from a talent perspective. After all, the offensive problems were thought to be mostly the fault of an inexperienced play caller who only got the job of offensive coordinator because of nepitism, and Baby Kubes was gone and on his way to Denver. The scheme not talent was at fault, and the second coming of Sean Mcvay was going to fix most, if not all of the Vikings’ offensive problems.
It certainly seemed that way after week one too. The Vikings blew out the reigning NFC North Champs in a decisive victory in a game where every facet of the team played well from start to finish. It was everything Vikings fans could hope for and it was also the last time that would happen. The Vikings would follow that massive victory up with a dud against what would become the best team in the NFC and while they would then go on to win six straight, the outcome of nearly every one of those games was in question until the final few minutes of the game, regardless of the quality of opponent. They were winning those close games though, and something was indeed different. Fast forward to week 18 with the Vikings looking to fall into the number three or number two seed with a 12-4 record, the best since 2017, and clearly something is different than the past couple of seasons.
What is it though? Did KOC’s flashy new offense really fix the issues of 2022 of long scoring draughts where not only did the offense fail to put up points, but frequently went three and out as well? Putting an injury riddled defense on the field far too often and allowing teams too many opportunities to take advantage of a bad run defense? No, that wasn’t it. In fact, the offense of 2022 couldn’t be more similar to the offense of 2021.
Above are the offensive drive stats for both the 2021 and 2022 Vikings’ seasons and in nearly every metric the team is identical save a couple of important and suprising ones. The Vikings are turning the ball over at a signficantly higher rate this year than last, but winning more? It defies all statistical probability with turnovers by far being the most accurate predictor of wins and losses. The other other metric the 2021 team is significantly different than the 2022 one in is also very surprising. The Vikings offense had a larger lead on more of their drives than the 2022 Vikings and lost at least four more games. Again, how is that possible?
Maybe it is because the defense is much better? After all, it has been relatively healthy all season and the Vikings upgraded at four starting spots on defense.
Nope, the defense is actually worse or nearly identical again to 2021. Including in the all important turnover stat surprisingly. It is a bad defense and Ed Donatell will almost undoubtably be fired after the season, so how is this team winning so many more games? Looking at more advanced stats things even get more confusing. DVOA, a stat that takes into account opponent and situation when evaluating a team’s performance absolutely hates the Vikings performance in 2022, and was much kinder to them in 2021.
One thing about DVOA is that it overvalues sacks in its calculations and since the Vikings in 2021 had 21 more sacks than their opponents while in 2022 they have 10 fewer, it might explain the large difference in DVOA. Still, giving up more sacks on offense and getting fewer on defense should lead to fewer wins, not more, so even if you factor that in it doesn’t explain why the Vikings are so much worse in DVOA stats but so much better in their record. Even more unexplainable is the difference in strength of schedule between the two years. This year’s team has actually played a more difficult schedule than 2021 which should have lead to fewer wins not more.
The stats say the scheme is not better or worse this year than last on both offense and is actually worse on defense, but the record implies both are significantly better. Or possibly the record is saying something else. Perhaps, situational play calling and execution is just that much better this year than last. The Vikings lost a lot of close games in 2021 afterall, typically because of failures to get a stop or to score at the end of the game. Diving into close game situations, and the stats for the team at the end of close games, there is again no evidence to support the 2022 team is significantly better at the end of the game than the 2021 team was. Going back to the gripe on Zimmer’s defense at the end of halves and how bad it was at stopping teams from scoring, people like to point out how bad it was specifically in the final two minutes of the half. Is it any better now? Yes, and no.
2021
TDs: 15 (Most)
FGs: 7 (12th Most)
Plays: 234 (Most)
Yds: 4.8 (Most)
1st Down Percentage: 30.3 (2nd highest)
Turonver Percentage: .4% (2nd lowest)
2022
TDs: 5 (12th Most)
FGs: 10 (2nd Most)
Plays: 176 (11th Most)
Yds: 5.3 (Most)
1st Down Percentage: 29.0% (3rd highest)
Turnover Percentage: 4% (3rd highest)
The Vikings are giving up fewer points in that situation, but also have been in that spot fewer times. They are also somehow giving up even more yards in that spot in 2022 than they did in 2021, but turnovers have played a huge part in keeping the scores low (relative to the 2021 Vikings if not to the rest of the league). Still pretty bad in that spot in 2022 all things considered. Here with the turnovers there is finally something pointing to why the Vikings have a better record in 2022 at least though.
The Vikings have been better at scoring TDs in the 4th this year than last, scoring the most of any team in the 4th quarter at 19. That is nine more than last year and likely the biggest reason for the difference in record. The question still remains why they are scoring more TDs though. Not because they are moving the ball better, the 2021 Vikings averaged 4.5 yards per play compared to the 2022 Vikings 4.4. Not because of better pass protection either. The Vikings have given up 13 sacks so fart this season in the 4th compared to 6 last season. Not because the QB is throwing downfield more in that spot. Kirk Cousins has averaged 11.95 yards per completion in the 4th this year, compared to…11.95 in 2021. Justin Jefferson isn’t being targetted more, with 45 targets in 2022 and 42 in 2021. Dalvin Cook has also been worse in 2022 in that spot than 2021 averaging nearly a half a yard less per attempt.
Worse offensive line play, nearly identical QB and WR efficiency, lesser play from the running back but nine more touchdowns and four more wins. How and is that success sustainable?
Going back to the “culture of fear” of Zimmer versus the “culture of collaberation” that KOC and Kwesi have established this season, could that be the reason for success? Looking at the numbers it almost has to be a part of it. KOC had the team believing that they can win every game going into the season, and once they actually started winning some close games, that belief grew even more. It isn’t sustainable, eventually the Vikings will fail at winning a close game and doubt will creep in, but it certainly is playing a factor now.
One other thing might be playing a factor in the Vikings going 12-4 versus 8-9. In 2021 the PFF had the Vikings graded out as the 15th best overall team in the NFL and this year they have them as the 4th highest graded team. According to PFF, the talent has just gotten better and that is difference. This would make sense with their record, they have about the 4th best record in the NFL and in 2021 they had about the 15th best, but one would think that if the team really was that good, there would be other stats to go along with that grade.
In the end, even if the numbers don’t say KOC has improved the Vikings over what the previous regime was doing last season, it is still a great sign he has improved their record and the team’s resolve over what the 3rd most winningest coach in Vikings history did last season. It is clear the Vikings needed a new voice in that locker room and that Zimmer’s time in MN had run its course, and while KOC will eventually need to take that next step as a head coach and start building a team that is capable of winning it all, 2022 is a great first step to doing just that.
... and neither is this Chris guy.