Vikings 2022 Depth Players
Dec 31, 2022 10:44:38 GMT -6
Funkytown, legendsofthenorth, and 3 more like this
Post by MidwinterViking on Dec 31, 2022 10:44:38 GMT -6
With only a few games left in the season, the Vikings depth has been tested. I wanted to take a look at how it held up.
My first assumption is that depth should not be as good as the starters; if a team has proven, quality starters on the bench, then they are throwing resources in the garbage. That would be either salary cap space or potential draft pick compensation that is sitting unused for a vast majority of the time. A team would be better off not paying for this type of player or trading them for future resources. That said, here is how I am going to rate the depth at each position:
Very Good (+2): More than one depth player who could step in and contribute with minimal fall off
Good (+1): At least one player at this position group who is either a veteran with starting experience who could hold things together or a high potential player on a rookie contract who is expected to develop and fans want to see him on the field.
Poor (-1): Depth is special teamers, players who would play out of position, or a veteran who has proven himself to be not very good.
Very Poor (-2): No clear backup or a backup who would be expected to be a significant liability.
Going Position group by position group:
OFFENSE
Quarterback – 1 Starter
Depth: Nick Mullens, Josh Rosen
The only question here is if I call this poor or very poor. Rosen on the practice squad is proven to be terrible, so this is really a rating of Nick Mullens as a backup. Mullens does have 17 NFL starts on his resume with a 64.7% completion rate and 26-22 TD-Int ratio, so there is an argument to be made that this is not so bad. The problem is that the “has a few starts” rule isn’t enough to get a player to “good” status at the quarterback position. Looking at other teams’ backup QBs could I argue Mullens is a top 10 backup QB? [starts counting – Tryod Taylor, Cold McCoy, Tyler Huntley, Andy Dalton, Gardner Minshew, Taylor Keinicke, Nick Foles, Teddy Bridgewater, Jimmy Garoppolo, Mike White, Cooper Rush] No, he’s not a high quality backup. His best positive is that he’s not Sean Manion
Poition Rating: Poor
Running Back – 1 Starter
Depth: Alexander Mattison, CJ Ham, Ty Chandler, Kene Nwangwu
Mattison is near-starter quality, so RB depth is already good or better. Ty Chandler is at least a well-regarded, young upside player, he counts towards depth because he was expected to be part of the team last year. Although because he’s so unproven, I wouldn’t count Chandler as a replacement who would contribute with minimal fall off. It raises the question: what would happen if the Vikings had to play a game with CJ Ham as the RB1? He’s an excellent blocker and good receiver, so they could just go with some really high pass ration and probably be OK. Nwangwu doesn’t look like a rotational RB but could contribute some gadget plays.
Position Rating: Very Good
Wide Receiver – 3 starters
Depth: Jalen Nailor, Jalen Reagor
I’m not counting KJ Osborn as depth, he is a starter. How do you rate Jalen Reagor? Young upside player who needs to develop or proven to be not very good; he’s kind of both at the same time. Nailor looked good in training camp, but only good enough to make me curious for 2023. Ultimately, both guys are special teamers with a chance for future development.
Position Rating: Poor
Tight End – 1 Starter
Depth: Johnny Mundt, Nick Muse, (Irv Smith Jr.?)
Mundt has been used significantly less than Conklin was last year, but he has been about as productive. Mundt has been slightly more reliable, probably because he hasn’t run as many deep routes as Conklin did last year.
The timing of the Hockenson trade makes it difficult to really evaluate his potential contribution. However the team did trade for Mundt with the specific purpose of filling the backup TE role and he has played 38% of snaps, so he’s a meaningful contributor and a good backup. However is Mundt good enough to contribute as a TE1? I don’t think so (and I don’t think Conklin was TE1 material). The trade for Hockenson may have happened regardless of the Irv Smith injury, but it was certainly timely. Everything is different if Irv is the TE2.
Position Rating: Poor / Very Good with Irv Smith Jr as a backup
Offensive Tackle – 2 starters
Depth: Blake Brandle, Oli Udoh
Brandle has 3 good games (Bills, Patriots, Jets) Vs two poor games (Cowboys, Lions). Replacing an all-pro level left tackle is a rough because Darrisaw set the bar for comparison so high. The Dallas debacle is a big black mark on Brandle (and a lot of others as well), but he does get credit for the games where he kept things together. Ultimatly, the Vikings went 3-1 through the tough 4 game stretch of their season with Brandle as the primary left tackle. The 4th tackle on the depth chart is Oli Udoh. Udoh is a bad starter, let’s get the out of the way. But how does he rate as the #4 tackle? Udoh does have starts and has previous playing time at 3 positions (LR, RG, RT). Udoh is not good enough to make the #4 tackle (and therefore the position) a strength, but this is good experience for a #4 tackle.
Position Rating: Good
Interior Offensive Line – 3 Starters
Depth: Austin Schlottman, Chris Reed
Chris Reed entered the season with 29 career starts at nearly a league average level; making him an ideal backup. Just because the Vikings haven’t needed Reed so far doesn’t mean he’s not a great option for a backup; he was even considered to be a potential starter pending Ingram’s development. Schlottmann had only been a Schlott starter with 7 starts prior to coming to the Vikings. He’s in the “not very good” category as a veteran, but he is being rated as the #5 player on the Interior offensive line where starting experience is a luxury. This rating is mostly carried by Reed.
Position Rating: Good
DEFENSE
Interior Defensive Line – 2 starters
Depth: James Lynch, Khyiris Tonga, Ross Blacklock, Esezi Otomewo, Jonathan Bullard
Tonga and Lynch alone qualify this as very good depth. Blacklock and Bullard are low end contributors making development of Otomewo purely a luxury.
Position Rating: Very Good
Edge / OLB – 2 Starters
Depth: Patrick Jones II, DJ Wonnum
Contribution from depth guys: 7 sacks + 11 tackles for loss. Patrick Jones II even rates in the top half of edge rushers (#50/121) on PFF. These two are barely backups, they are more like rotational starters. Luiji Vilain brings….. a cool name.
Position Rating: Very Good
Inside Linebacker – 2 starters
Depth:Brian Asamoah, Troy Dye, Jordan Hicks
Asamoah has forcing the issue and rotating in at a position that doesn’t rotate much. Actually, you know what, I’m flipping this rating. Jordan Hicks is a very good backup who has done a capable job keeping the position warm for Asamoah. 178 career starts for Hicks is very good experience to bring as a backup linebacker, even if he is a liability in coverage. I rate Troy Dye as a special teamer only. I honestly didn’t know we had a dude named William Kwenkeu on the team. I said a “very good” rating requires 2 playable backups, but of ILB I’m making an exception; ILBs don’t rotate and the Vikings have a backup that supplanted the starter.
Position Rating: Very Good
Cornerback – 3 starters
Depth: Duke Shelly, Akayleb Evans, Andrew Booth Jr. Kris Boyd
Chandon Sullivan is include as a starter. Remember this is a rating of backups, not starters. Duke Shelly has enough snaps (286) that’s he can be considered a legit good backup; in fact he’s played so well that the Vikings have had the luxury to bring back Dantzler from injury slowly. I really feel bad for Akayleb Evans, back to back good games against the Commanders and Bills and a concussion set him back, there could be something there. Booth Jr is the exact definition of a high upside player the team would want to work in. Kris Boyd is just a guy as a corner, but a good special teamer; although I would challenge anyone to find a team with a better CB#7 in the NFL. Shelly and Evans carry this group; Booth Jr was depth that didn’t work out. In a situation that is a bit of the opposite of ILB, I’m rating depth at CB more harshly because so many have to play, so Shelly and Evans don’t constitute to start-able players for a “very good” rating on their own. So this only gets a “good” rating despite the teams CB#5 (Shelly) being one of the higher rated players on defense.
Position Rating: Good
Safety – 2 Starters
Depth: Lewis Cine, Josh Metellus, Miles Dorn
At the start of the season, Safety depth looked elite. Lewis Cine was supposed to be good enough to challenge hot shot second year player in Cam Bynum. Cine started the year as a high potential player; that depth was unfortunately wiped out by injury, so things now fall on Josh Metellus. Metellus has played 18.6% of snaps, the equivalent of two and a half full games and PFF rates him significantly higher than either Bynum or Harrison Smith. Metellus is approaching enough defensive snaps (195), that I start to consider him an actual safety rather than just the special teamer I thought he was. If Metellus is actually a playable player then, combined with Cine, the Vikings started the season with a full set up backup safeties that I would like to see more of. Starting safety play as been very questionable, but I’m not going to let that take away from Cine and Metellus. Myles Dorn and Theo Jackson do not contribute to the rating.
Position Rating: Very Good
Overall ratings:
Very Good: RB, IDL, Edge, ILB, S
Good: OT, IOL, CB
Poor: QB, WR, TE
Very Poor: none
The Vikings have had decent injury luck, but they haven’t been without multiple game injuries to key players (Irv Smith, Darrisaw, Bradburry, Dantzler, Evans, Harrison Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson). Backups stepping in and playing at close to starter level, especially weeks 10-16 is a key reason the Vikings won the NFC North this year.
Ranking my top 10 depth players according to their value added:
1 - Duke Shelly
2 - Brian Asamoah
3 - Blake Brandle
4 - Alexander Mattison
5 - Patrick Jones II
6 - Khyiris Tonga
7 - CJ Ham
8 - Johnny Mundt
9 - Josh Metellus
10 - DJ Wonnum
My first assumption is that depth should not be as good as the starters; if a team has proven, quality starters on the bench, then they are throwing resources in the garbage. That would be either salary cap space or potential draft pick compensation that is sitting unused for a vast majority of the time. A team would be better off not paying for this type of player or trading them for future resources. That said, here is how I am going to rate the depth at each position:
Very Good (+2): More than one depth player who could step in and contribute with minimal fall off
Good (+1): At least one player at this position group who is either a veteran with starting experience who could hold things together or a high potential player on a rookie contract who is expected to develop and fans want to see him on the field.
Poor (-1): Depth is special teamers, players who would play out of position, or a veteran who has proven himself to be not very good.
Very Poor (-2): No clear backup or a backup who would be expected to be a significant liability.
Going Position group by position group:
OFFENSE
Quarterback – 1 Starter
Depth: Nick Mullens, Josh Rosen
The only question here is if I call this poor or very poor. Rosen on the practice squad is proven to be terrible, so this is really a rating of Nick Mullens as a backup. Mullens does have 17 NFL starts on his resume with a 64.7% completion rate and 26-22 TD-Int ratio, so there is an argument to be made that this is not so bad. The problem is that the “has a few starts” rule isn’t enough to get a player to “good” status at the quarterback position. Looking at other teams’ backup QBs could I argue Mullens is a top 10 backup QB? [starts counting – Tryod Taylor, Cold McCoy, Tyler Huntley, Andy Dalton, Gardner Minshew, Taylor Keinicke, Nick Foles, Teddy Bridgewater, Jimmy Garoppolo, Mike White, Cooper Rush] No, he’s not a high quality backup. His best positive is that he’s not Sean Manion
Poition Rating: Poor
Running Back – 1 Starter
Depth: Alexander Mattison, CJ Ham, Ty Chandler, Kene Nwangwu
Mattison is near-starter quality, so RB depth is already good or better. Ty Chandler is at least a well-regarded, young upside player, he counts towards depth because he was expected to be part of the team last year. Although because he’s so unproven, I wouldn’t count Chandler as a replacement who would contribute with minimal fall off. It raises the question: what would happen if the Vikings had to play a game with CJ Ham as the RB1? He’s an excellent blocker and good receiver, so they could just go with some really high pass ration and probably be OK. Nwangwu doesn’t look like a rotational RB but could contribute some gadget plays.
Position Rating: Very Good
Wide Receiver – 3 starters
Depth: Jalen Nailor, Jalen Reagor
I’m not counting KJ Osborn as depth, he is a starter. How do you rate Jalen Reagor? Young upside player who needs to develop or proven to be not very good; he’s kind of both at the same time. Nailor looked good in training camp, but only good enough to make me curious for 2023. Ultimately, both guys are special teamers with a chance for future development.
Position Rating: Poor
Tight End – 1 Starter
Depth: Johnny Mundt, Nick Muse, (Irv Smith Jr.?)
Mundt has been used significantly less than Conklin was last year, but he has been about as productive. Mundt has been slightly more reliable, probably because he hasn’t run as many deep routes as Conklin did last year.
The timing of the Hockenson trade makes it difficult to really evaluate his potential contribution. However the team did trade for Mundt with the specific purpose of filling the backup TE role and he has played 38% of snaps, so he’s a meaningful contributor and a good backup. However is Mundt good enough to contribute as a TE1? I don’t think so (and I don’t think Conklin was TE1 material). The trade for Hockenson may have happened regardless of the Irv Smith injury, but it was certainly timely. Everything is different if Irv is the TE2.
Position Rating: Poor / Very Good with Irv Smith Jr as a backup
Offensive Tackle – 2 starters
Depth: Blake Brandle, Oli Udoh
Brandle has 3 good games (Bills, Patriots, Jets) Vs two poor games (Cowboys, Lions). Replacing an all-pro level left tackle is a rough because Darrisaw set the bar for comparison so high. The Dallas debacle is a big black mark on Brandle (and a lot of others as well), but he does get credit for the games where he kept things together. Ultimatly, the Vikings went 3-1 through the tough 4 game stretch of their season with Brandle as the primary left tackle. The 4th tackle on the depth chart is Oli Udoh. Udoh is a bad starter, let’s get the out of the way. But how does he rate as the #4 tackle? Udoh does have starts and has previous playing time at 3 positions (LR, RG, RT). Udoh is not good enough to make the #4 tackle (and therefore the position) a strength, but this is good experience for a #4 tackle.
Position Rating: Good
Interior Offensive Line – 3 Starters
Depth: Austin Schlottman, Chris Reed
Chris Reed entered the season with 29 career starts at nearly a league average level; making him an ideal backup. Just because the Vikings haven’t needed Reed so far doesn’t mean he’s not a great option for a backup; he was even considered to be a potential starter pending Ingram’s development. Schlottmann had only been a Schlott starter with 7 starts prior to coming to the Vikings. He’s in the “not very good” category as a veteran, but he is being rated as the #5 player on the Interior offensive line where starting experience is a luxury. This rating is mostly carried by Reed.
Position Rating: Good
DEFENSE
Interior Defensive Line – 2 starters
Depth: James Lynch, Khyiris Tonga, Ross Blacklock, Esezi Otomewo, Jonathan Bullard
Tonga and Lynch alone qualify this as very good depth. Blacklock and Bullard are low end contributors making development of Otomewo purely a luxury.
Position Rating: Very Good
Edge / OLB – 2 Starters
Depth: Patrick Jones II, DJ Wonnum
Contribution from depth guys: 7 sacks + 11 tackles for loss. Patrick Jones II even rates in the top half of edge rushers (#50/121) on PFF. These two are barely backups, they are more like rotational starters. Luiji Vilain brings….. a cool name.
Position Rating: Very Good
Inside Linebacker – 2 starters
Depth:
Asamoah has forcing the issue and rotating in at a position that doesn’t rotate much. Actually, you know what, I’m flipping this rating. Jordan Hicks is a very good backup who has done a capable job keeping the position warm for Asamoah. 178 career starts for Hicks is very good experience to bring as a backup linebacker, even if he is a liability in coverage. I rate Troy Dye as a special teamer only. I honestly didn’t know we had a dude named William Kwenkeu on the team. I said a “very good” rating requires 2 playable backups, but of ILB I’m making an exception; ILBs don’t rotate and the Vikings have a backup that supplanted the starter.
Position Rating: Very Good
Cornerback – 3 starters
Depth: Duke Shelly, Akayleb Evans, Andrew Booth Jr. Kris Boyd
Chandon Sullivan is include as a starter. Remember this is a rating of backups, not starters. Duke Shelly has enough snaps (286) that’s he can be considered a legit good backup; in fact he’s played so well that the Vikings have had the luxury to bring back Dantzler from injury slowly. I really feel bad for Akayleb Evans, back to back good games against the Commanders and Bills and a concussion set him back, there could be something there. Booth Jr is the exact definition of a high upside player the team would want to work in. Kris Boyd is just a guy as a corner, but a good special teamer; although I would challenge anyone to find a team with a better CB#7 in the NFL. Shelly and Evans carry this group; Booth Jr was depth that didn’t work out. In a situation that is a bit of the opposite of ILB, I’m rating depth at CB more harshly because so many have to play, so Shelly and Evans don’t constitute to start-able players for a “very good” rating on their own. So this only gets a “good” rating despite the teams CB#5 (Shelly) being one of the higher rated players on defense.
Position Rating: Good
Safety – 2 Starters
Depth: Lewis Cine, Josh Metellus, Miles Dorn
At the start of the season, Safety depth looked elite. Lewis Cine was supposed to be good enough to challenge hot shot second year player in Cam Bynum. Cine started the year as a high potential player; that depth was unfortunately wiped out by injury, so things now fall on Josh Metellus. Metellus has played 18.6% of snaps, the equivalent of two and a half full games and PFF rates him significantly higher than either Bynum or Harrison Smith. Metellus is approaching enough defensive snaps (195), that I start to consider him an actual safety rather than just the special teamer I thought he was. If Metellus is actually a playable player then, combined with Cine, the Vikings started the season with a full set up backup safeties that I would like to see more of. Starting safety play as been very questionable, but I’m not going to let that take away from Cine and Metellus. Myles Dorn and Theo Jackson do not contribute to the rating.
Position Rating: Very Good
Overall ratings:
Very Good: RB, IDL, Edge, ILB, S
Good: OT, IOL, CB
Poor: QB, WR, TE
Very Poor: none
The Vikings have had decent injury luck, but they haven’t been without multiple game injuries to key players (Irv Smith, Darrisaw, Bradburry, Dantzler, Evans, Harrison Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson). Backups stepping in and playing at close to starter level, especially weeks 10-16 is a key reason the Vikings won the NFC North this year.
Ranking my top 10 depth players according to their value added:
1 - Duke Shelly
2 - Brian Asamoah
3 - Blake Brandle
4 - Alexander Mattison
5 - Patrick Jones II
6 - Khyiris Tonga
7 - CJ Ham
8 - Johnny Mundt
9 - Josh Metellus
10 - DJ Wonnum
... and neither is this Chris guy.