Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!)

dauntessmallhands
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Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!) Mar 2, 2023 10:32:15 GMT -6

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Post by dauntessmallhands on Mar 2, 2023 10:32:15 GMT -6

Mar 2, 2023 9:01:06 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Mar 1, 2023 20:09:49 GMT -6 Brandon said:

Having cap room in '24 is nice, but they have a projected 90+ million there already, it's this year where they're screwed and 25 million over.

I'm not a cap guru, but that seems kinda backwards thinking? Unless they're just really looking at this as a prelude to a fresh start in '24?

98 million in 2024 minus
45 for Kirk
25 for JJ
22 for Hunter
15 for Hockenson
13 for Tomlinson

The Vikings are then looking at -22 million in cap space in 2024. Now, those numbers are the most likely AAV of those guys, and most of the cap hits are probably lower in 2024, but that is where the money is going.

-21 for Thielen if you move on this year
-11 for Harry if you keep him and move on next year or -19 if you move on this year.
-20 if you cut Z
-15 if you move on from cook or -12 if you do it next year
-5 if you don't bring back DT
-11 if you extend hunter
-6.5 if you move on from Phillips
- If Kirk gets an extension of more than a year, his hit in 2024 won't be 45m.

That's about a 100m back from the 120 you listed.

Plus whatever FA's we add.

We probably end up with a roster of fewer guys in the twilight of their career.

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Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!) Mar 2, 2023 13:24:09 GMT -6 comet52, Brandon, and 2 more like this

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Post by Jor-El on Mar 2, 2023 13:24:09 GMT -6

This is yet another problem left over by Spielman. Cook was great in his first 4 seasons (when not hurt). Funny, that was the length of his rookie contract. Cowboys gave Zeke Elliott a huge deal after 3 or 4 years, while he was still on his rookie deal, and are probably regretting it. Giants are considering letting Saquon Barkley walk as his rookie deal expires. The smart approach is to use up a RB while they are on their rookie deal and then let them walk away. They often produce quickly so you get value even in their rookie season. But by their 5th season, they are getting worn down and maybe less hungry.

Spielman got good value when he drafted Cook. But he crapped a lot of that away when he gave him a big contract extension - rather than having confidence he could find another great RB.

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Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!) Mar 2, 2023 13:38:31 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Mar 2, 2023 13:38:31 GMT -6

Mar 2, 2023 10:32:15 GMT -6 dauntessmallhands said:

Mar 2, 2023 9:01:06 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

98 million in 2024 minus
45 for Kirk
25 for JJ
22 for Hunter
15 for Hockenson
13 for Tomlinson

The Vikings are then looking at -22 million in cap space in 2024. Now, those numbers are the most likely AAV of those guys, and most of the cap hits are probably lower in 2024, but that is where the money is going.

-21 for Thielen if you move on this year
-11 for Harry if you keep him and move on next year or -19 if you move on this year.
-20 if you cut Z
-15 if you move on from cook or -12 if you do it next year
-5 if you don't bring back DT
-11 if you extend hunter
-6.5 if you move on from Phillips
- If Kirk gets an extension of more than a year, his hit in 2024 won't be 45m.

That's about a 100m back from the 120 you listed.

Plus whatever FA's we add.

We probably end up with a roster of fewer guys in the twilight of their career.

Extending Hunter only saves about 6 million in 2024 since you still are going to pay half of the remaining signing bonus. I did forget about that though. Cousins is very unlikely to be less than 45 million and could be even more. On top of his new money, they will convert some of his current salary to signing bonus which will increase his cap hit well over his actual salary.

I do agree with the rest of your premise though, and if those guys are almost certainly gone in 2024, why not move on now, save even more cap from cutting them, and give younger guys you will be relying on in 2024 a chance to develop.

SiteWolf Team Captain Posts: 1,959 Likes: 1,395 Fan Since: virtually the beginning	Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!) Mar 3, 2023 7:24:16 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by SiteWolf on Mar 3, 2023 7:24:16 GMT -6 If we were to release Dalvin, what do people see the RB room looking like? 1) Mattison, Chandler, Nwangwu? 2) Chandler, Nwangwu, FA? 3) Chandler, NWangwu, draft pick? 4) Draft pick, Chandler, Nwangwu?

Uncle
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Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!) Mar 3, 2023 10:52:54 GMT -6 Danchat and Brandon like this

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Post by Uncle on Mar 3, 2023 10:52:54 GMT -6

Mar 3, 2023 7:24:16 GMT -6 SiteWolf said:

If we were to release Dalvin, what do people see the RB room looking like?

Assuming we don't resign Mattison, I think it looks like this:

RB1: free agent RB (shouldn't cost much against cap; Danchat suggested D Foreman in his Offseason Guide)
RB2: Chandler
RB3: 2023 Draft Pick (preferably Day 3)
RB4: Kene
RB5: 2023 UDFA (on practice squad)

We don't utilize Kene too much at all in the running game so it's very possible he gets the RB3 job over the 2023 Draft pick, but I'm thinking we spend a 5th on a RB and since the RB class is so deep, it's possible we get a good one who's more of a complete RB than Kene is. Then I would think we'd sign another UDFA as RB5 and put that individual on the PS.

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Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!) Mar 3, 2023 11:05:27 GMT -6

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Post by comet52 on Mar 3, 2023 11:05:27 GMT -6

Mar 2, 2023 13:24:09 GMT -6 Jor-El said:

This is yet another problem left over by Spielman. Cook was great in his first 4 seasons (when not hurt). Funny, that was the length of his rookie contract. Cowboys gave Zeke Elliott a huge deal after 3 or 4 years, while he was still on his rookie deal, and are probably regretting it. Giants are considering letting Saquon Barkley walk as his rookie deal expires. The smart approach is to use up a RB while they are on their rookie deal and then let them walk away. They often produce quickly so you get value even in their rookie season. But by their 5th season, they are getting worn down and maybe less hungry.

Spielman got good value when he drafted Cook. But he crapped a lot of that away when he gave him a big contract extension - rather than having confidence he could find another great RB.

The analytics favoring not giving RB's high dollar second contracts were already established when Spielman decided to do just that.

Last Edit: Mar 3, 2023 11:05:53 GMT -6 by comet52

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Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!) Mar 3, 2023 11:29:18 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by Brandon on Mar 3, 2023 11:29:18 GMT -6

Mar 3, 2023 10:52:54 GMT -6 Uncle said:

Mar 3, 2023 7:24:16 GMT -6 SiteWolf said:

If we were to release Dalvin, what do people see the RB room looking like?

Assuming we don't resign Mattison, I think it looks like this:

RB1: free agent RB (shouldn't cost much against cap; Danchat suggested D Foreman in his Offseason Guide)
RB2: Chandler
RB3: 2023 Draft Pick (preferably Day 3)
RB4: Kene
RB5: 2023 UDFA (on practice squad)

We don't utilize Kene too much at all in the running game so it's very possible he gets the RB3 job over the 2023 Draft pick, but I'm thinking we spend a 5th on a RB and since the RB class is so deep, it's possible we get a good one who's more of a complete RB than Kene is. Then I would think we'd sign another UDFA as RB5 and put that individual on the PS.

I think it will be something along those lines. Maybe not the exact slotting but I think we'll add a low cost FA and draft someone. I wouldn't automatically assume the rookie doesn't start. I don't think this group would keep a Rookie on the bench if he's the best guy for the job and wins the job in training camp.

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Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!) Mar 3, 2023 11:32:47 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Mar 3, 2023 11:32:47 GMT -6

Mar 3, 2023 10:52:54 GMT -6 Uncle said:

Mar 3, 2023 7:24:16 GMT -6 SiteWolf said:

If we were to release Dalvin, what do people see the RB room looking like?

Assuming we don't resign Mattison, I think it looks like this:

RB1: free agent RB (shouldn't cost much against cap; Danchat suggested D Foreman in his Offseason Guide)
RB2: Chandler
RB3: 2023 Draft Pick (preferably Day 3)
RB4: Kene
RB5: 2023 UDFA (on practice squad)

We don't utilize Kene too much at all in the running game so it's very possible he gets the RB3 job over the 2023 Draft pick, but I'm thinking we spend a 5th on a RB and since the RB class is so deep, it's possible we get a good one who's more of a complete RB than Kene is. Then I would think we'd sign another UDFA as RB5 and put that individual on the PS.

I would be so disappointed if the Vikings re-signed Mattison. There are going to be a number of cheap, free agents vet RBs who would be better options than a guy who has averaged less than 4 YPC the past two seasons.

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Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!) Mar 3, 2023 11:34:19 GMT -6 Jor-El likes this

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Post by MidwinterViking on Mar 3, 2023 11:34:19 GMT -6

Mar 3, 2023 10:52:54 GMT -6 Uncle said:

Mar 3, 2023 7:24:16 GMT -6 SiteWolf said:

If we were to release Dalvin, what do people see the RB room looking like?

Assuming we don't resign Mattison, I think it looks like this:

RB1: free agent RB (shouldn't cost much against cap; Danchat suggested D Foreman in his Offseason Guide)
RB2: Chandler
RB3: 2023 Draft Pick (preferably Day 3)
RB4: Kene
RB5: 2023 UDFA (on practice squad)

We don't utilize Kene too much at all in the running game so it's very possible he gets the RB3 job over the 2023 Draft pick, but I'm thinking we spend a 5th on a RB and since the RB class is so deep, it's possible we get a good one who's more of a complete RB than Kene is. Then I would think we'd sign another UDFA as RB5 and put that individual on the PS.

The D'Onta Foreman comparison seems to make the case for Cook coming back stronger. Look at the cost / benefit of Cook vs an example free agent like Foreman:

Save $6.5M cutting Cook vs a Spotrac projected cost of $3.5M for Foreman, the Vikings save $3M and get:
- A back who is 1 year younger
- A much less reliable pass blocker
- Far less experienced receiver (23 total receptions in 5 years). Foreman has 1 game with 3 or more catches; Dalvin has 40 such games.
- No proven ability to carry a full workload (9 career games with more than 15 carries). Maybe this is a wear and tear benefit, but in 5 years, he's never been proven to be the guy.
- A career 4.3 yards per carry (Cook is 4.7 for is career and 4.4 in his down year in 2022)

To me, that is a horrible tradeoff to save $3M.

If the Vikings cut Cook, I think it has to be to make Chandler the lead guy with a potential free agent #2 back, or a plan to start a rookie RB. Veteran RBs are fine if you need a niche role filled (3rd down receiver or goal line guy), but I don't see anyone there that I'd be happy to give 150-250 carries to (and is also a discount).

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Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!) Mar 3, 2023 12:33:22 GMT -6

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Post by Jor-El on Mar 3, 2023 12:33:22 GMT -6

Mar 3, 2023 7:24:16 GMT -6 SiteWolf said:

If we were to release Dalvin, what do people see the RB room looking like?

A lot of good ideas above, but I would love to see the Vikings put fresh legs on the field with a rookie RB and Ty Chandler. D'Onta Foreman doesn't interest me: he's almost as old as Cook and was never especially good.

If they could trade down and get Jahmyr Gibbs, he could be outstanding right away as a rookie. I know, more draft capital in RBs, but they pay off immediately.

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Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!) Mar 3, 2023 13:03:19 GMT -6 via mobile FSUVike and ukvikings like this

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Post by VikingsBoss on Mar 3, 2023 13:03:19 GMT -6

Mar 3, 2023 7:24:16 GMT -6 SiteWolf said:

If we were to release Dalvin, what do people see the RB room looking like?

1) Mattison, Chandler, Nwangwu?
2) Chandler, Nwangwu, FA?
3) Chandler, NWangwu, draft pick?
4) Draft pick, Chandler, Nwangwu?

1a) Chandler
1b) Free Agent Power Back (perhaps Latavius Murray returns, or James Robinson)
2) Draft pick or Priority UDFA Scatback (Shaun Shivers from Indiana?)
3) Nwangwu

Nwangwu is not a functional NFL back, he is a return specialist.

Chandler was impressive in Camp and Preseason...a little frustrated he only got 6 carries. But, he can't be relied upon with so small a sample size, so pair him with a veteran who has been a bell cow in the past and can carry the load if Chandler falters.

In O'Connell's pass fetishist offense, a true RB1 would only be counted on for 16 or 17 carries a game...and anyone who can consistently pick up 4 yards would be acceptable.

And, get a true pass catching threat to operate underneath, not just ill-conceived screens, but passes to the flat and little crosses, occasionally a wheel route...a 50 catch guy to keep LBs honest.

The Cardinals have knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs! NO!-Paul Allen, December 28th, 2003

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Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!) Mar 3, 2023 13:05:22 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Mar 3, 2023 13:05:22 GMT -6

Mar 3, 2023 11:34:19 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

Mar 3, 2023 10:52:54 GMT -6 Uncle said:

Assuming we don't resign Mattison, I think it looks like this:

RB1: free agent RB (shouldn't cost much against cap; Danchat suggested D Foreman in his Offseason Guide)
RB2: Chandler
RB3: 2023 Draft Pick (preferably Day 3)
RB4: Kene
RB5: 2023 UDFA (on practice squad)

We don't utilize Kene too much at all in the running game so it's very possible he gets the RB3 job over the 2023 Draft pick, but I'm thinking we spend a 5th on a RB and since the RB class is so deep, it's possible we get a good one who's more of a complete RB than Kene is. Then I would think we'd sign another UDFA as RB5 and put that individual on the PS.

The D'Onta Foreman comparison seems to make the case for Cook coming back stronger. Look at the cost / benefit of Cook vs an example free agent like Foreman:

Save $6.5M cutting Cook vs a Spotrac projected cost of $3.5M for Foreman, the Vikings save $3M and get:
- A back who is 1 year younger
- A much less reliable pass blocker
- Far less experienced receiver (23 total receptions in 5 years). Foreman has 1 game with 3 or more catches; Dalvin has 40 such games.
- No proven ability to carry a full workload (9 career games with more than 15 carries). Maybe this is a wear and tear benefit, but in 5 years, he's never been proven to be the guy.
- A career 4.3 yards per carry (Cook is 4.7 for is career and 4.4 in his down year in 2022)

To me, that is a horrible tradeoff to save $3M.

If the Vikings cut Cook, I think it has to be to make Chandler the lead guy with a potential free agent #2 back, or a plan to start a rookie RB. Veteran RBs are fine if you need a niche role filled (3rd down receiver or goal line guy), but I don't see anyone there that I'd be happy to give 150-250 carries to (and is also a discount).

Cutting Cook this year saves over 8 million this season not 6.5, unless you were assuming a pay cut, and 3 million next, versus if they just cut him after the 2024 season. 11 million over two seasons isn't a lot compared to what Cook gives the Vikings if he were used effectively, but he wasn't last year, and he is approaching an age where it wouldn't matter even if he was used right.

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Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!) Mar 3, 2023 13:57:59 GMT -6 via mobile ukvikings likes this

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Post by FSUVike on Mar 3, 2023 13:57:59 GMT -6

Mar 3, 2023 7:24:16 GMT -6 SiteWolf said:

If we were to release Dalvin, what do people see the RB room looking like?

1) Mattison, Chandler, Nwangwu?
2) Chandler, Nwangwu, FA?
3) Chandler, NWangwu, draft pick?
4) Draft pick, Chandler, Nwangwu?

Chandler, Tier 3 FA, Draft Pick. Let them have an honest to goodness competition and the best man gets RB1 snaps.

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Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!) Mar 3, 2023 14:29:41 GMT -6

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Post by SiteWolf on Mar 3, 2023 14:29:41 GMT -6

So, none of you guys seem to feel Nwangwu should get much more of a look? We've basically only seen Chandler in preseason. IMO I'd like to find more of a thumper, an AJ Dillon type, for a change of pace back to mix in.

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Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!) Mar 3, 2023 14:42:26 GMT -6

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Post by Uncle on Mar 3, 2023 14:42:26 GMT -6

Mar 3, 2023 14:29:41 GMT -6 SiteWolf said:

So, none of you guys seem to feel Nwangwu should get much more of a look? We've basically only seen Chandler in preseason. IMO I'd like to find more of a thumper, an AJ Dillon type, for a change of pace back to mix in.

I agree with adding a "power back" via free agency to compliment Chandler and/or Kene if the coaching staff feels Kene can work in some rushing snaps in 2023.

Instead of having Chandler or a free agent RB try to completely make-up for Cook's 2022 snaps/yards, I'd like to see a "RB-by-committee" approach that Shurmur employed during the 2017 season after Cook went down. The 2017 season was the first post-Adrian Peterson season and Rick traded-up in the 2nd to draft Cook, who went down with a season-ending injury in Week 4. After that, Shurmur turned to Jerick McKinnon (the "lightning") and Latavius Murray (the "thunder") for the remainder of the season and utilized both them nicely.

Here were the 2017 rushing/receiving attempts/yards by the RB's:

Murray: 216 att, 842 rush yds, 15 rec, 103 rec yds
McKinnon: 150 att, 570 rush yds, 51 rec, 421 rec yds
Cook: 74 att, 354 rush yds, 11 rec, 90 rec yds

If Chandler could assume the "Jerick McKinnon/lightning" role, then a free agent power back could assume the "Latavius Murray/thunder" role and you draft a Day 3 RB with upside to compliment where needed and fill-in if either Chandler or the free agent power back goes down to injury.