Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!)

Let’s take a closer look at some of those numbers.

— Cook’s PFF grades went from 81.3 and 89.0 in 2019 and 2020 to 65.8 and 67.4 over the last two seasons. That’s the difference from ranking as the second best RB in the league behind Derrick Henry to 50th out of 60 regular and rotational backs.

— In 2020, his Rushing Yards Over Expected was 0.44 per rush in 2019 and 0.81 in 2020. Both those stats are elite. In 2021 it was still decent at 0.34 but last year his RYOE dropped to minus-0.16 per carry, among the lowest in the NFL.

— His yards per touch went down for four straight years, dipping from 5.5 in 2020 to 4.8 last year.

— In August, 2021, PFF published a look at when running backs tend to fade and identified the 1,500 touch mark as the concerning level of workload before going over a cliff. Cook has 1,503 carries + receptions.

Is it possible that Cook could have come back stronger this year, fresh off shoulder surgery, and improved on those numbers? Certainly. There have been lots of running backs who have thrived in their age-28 season and beyond. Since 2010, 33 RBs have gone for over 1,000 yards at either 28 or older. Only 16, however, have averaged 4.5 yards per carry or above and two of those seasons belong to Adrian Peterson.

Another inefficiency that exists below the surface with Cook is the obligation to use him. If any other running back went through downturns as he did in the second halves of seasons and had injuries slowing them down, coaches would have limited their carries and mixed in other runners. But the bell cow was the bell cow and he was getting the football no matter how many limbs were dangling.

Keeping in mind that QB rushing is included, it’s still noticeable that the Vikings were 27th in Expected Points Added on the ground last year, 28th in 2021, eighth in 2020, 16th in 2019 and 28th in 2018. So, an above average rushing game in totality once in the last five years. They can improve on that.

Naturally, you will see football analysts abound saying that the Vikings have one of the worst backfields in the NFL now. One way of looking at that is the obligation to get Cook his touches is now gone so they can throw, throw, throw. That seems like a good strategy considering the group of pass catchers.

But we also can’t say for certain that it won’t be more efficient than the last two years with Alexander Mattison, Ty Chandler, Kene Nwangwu and DeWayne McBride. Some of the running backs who produced better PFF grades and yards per carry than Cook last year included Brian Robinson Jr., Rhamondre Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard, Dameon Pierce, Raheem Mostert, Isiah Pacheco, Devin Singletary etc. We often see circumstances determine success in the backfield. Remember when Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon starred in 2017?

Being star-studded in the backfield doesn’t always mean being the best you can be. Or the best you can be for the future. The Vikings have spent third, fourth, fifth and seventh-round draft picks on their current crop. It’s time to find out who can play.

This year might be about finding out who can play in general— just look over at the defensive side of the ball. There’s a lot of value in that.

So it won’t be easy for fans with No. 33 or No. 4 jerseys to see another very good player walk out the door. Once upon a time, folks with No. 28 jerseys weren’t thrilled to see an all-time running back walk out the door and the next man up was able to thrive. That’s the nature of the position and the Vikings are handling it as if they know that now.

The Vikings could use some of that $9 million in space this summer, but they'll presumably roll over all or most of it to 2024. By releasing Cook, they're also creating $12.5 million in cap space next year, with another $3.1 million in dead money. They're currently projected to have roughly $54 million in cap space in 2024.

This offseason has been all about clearing big contract off the books and maximizing future flexibility, both financially and roster-wise. A large dead cap hit for Kirk Cousins looms in 2024 if he leaves in free agency, but that's better from a flexibility standpoint than extending him again. We'll see what happens with Danielle Hunter; trading him would be a big step towards a legitimate rebuild.

The Vikings still have a big question to answer soon at the quarterback position. But in moving on from a bunch of older, expensive players, they're taking a long-term view of their situation instead of trying to run it back with last year's team. That's the correct approach, no matter how well it works out several years from now.

Armed with plenty of cap space next offseason, Adofo-Mensah can really start to build the Vikings' roster in his vision.