Cooked? - Dalvin Cook Released (now a Jet!)

For months, Cook’s divorce from the Vikings has seemed inevitable. Not as a byproduct of any hard feelings, but rather as a simple expression of a team’s decision-makers thinking holistically.

Inserting some grand statement here about analytics would be easy, especially considering an analytically inclined general manager is making the moves. But even Kwesi Adofo-Mensah explained recently that this is less a visionary application of analytics and more a team navigating its salary cap constraints.

“For us, we just segment (every position) into what happens on the field, what the player can do and how can they contribute,” he said.

So, what can Cook do on the field? The aforementioned 53-yard house call against the Dolphins is a prime example.

Cook probes. He analyzes. He is the restaurant customer who asks questions before his orders, as opposed to the person who cannot wait to eat. Sometimes, the result is a great meal. Other times, he gets passed in line.

In 2022, Cook ran for 1,173 yards — the second-highest total of his six-year career — and eight touchdowns. He ranked 40th among 42 qualified running backs in the percentage of runs for zero or negative yards (24.3 percent). But he was also one of six running backs who exploded for multiple 50-yard gains. Pair those two features — the busts and the booms — and you’ll have a generalized snapshot of what Cook can do. And what the Vikings would be losing.

Meanwhile, Alexander Mattison is the order-immediately type of runner. He knows what he wants and he doesn’t take any chances. He holds tightly onto the ball and slices up the field. The product is rarely eye-popping, but it does the job.

Blitz through the statistics, and you’ll notice that in 2022, Mattison ranked second among 59 running backs in success rate. (Cook was 51st.) Furthermore, if you segment the metrics the way NFL teams’ analytics departments do to compare players, here is how Cook and Mattison stack up in different categories:



By eliminating Cook’s five runs of 20 yards or more, you’ll notice that Mattison’s average yards after contact actually eclipses Cook’s.



Here, you’ll see that Mattison actually averaged more chunk gains on a percentage basis than Cook.

Selecting one style of back over another is an exercise in preferences. If your offense has a developed aerial attack, maybe you would rather have a runner who consistently gets you in third-and-short. If your passing game doesn’t have big-play potential, maybe you would favor the home-run hitter.

Of course, other factors matter, too. Cook has six years of starting experience, while Mattison has only started six career games. Cook has been gritting his way through a dislocated shoulder, whereas Mattison has been fresher.

And then there is the money. When Adofo-Mensah used the phrase “how can they contribute,” we should note that “contribution” can extend beyond the field. If a player has a low cap number, it can allow the team to allocate funds elsewhere. If the cap number is higher, it can result in less flexibility to sign other players.

Cook’s cap number is about $14.1 million in 2023, currently the third-largest number among NFL running backs behind Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Mattison’s cap number is about $2.4 million for 2023, the 29th-biggest number among running backs.

A $10 million difference matters. Essentially, what may be lost in the form of big-play potential at running back could be a gain in cap space to fit extensions for Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson or Danielle Hunter into the longer-term puzzle.

That’s what led Minnesota to this juncture — the reality that paying for Cook’s production at his current cost does not serve Minnesota’s long-term vision as much as paying for Mattison’s production at his current cost.

The Vikings have pursued trade opportunities to add draft capital as well as money to spend on its franchise cornerstones. Teams like the Dolphins have reportedly expressed interest.

Complicating any deal, though, is Cook’s contract, which will likely need to be restructured by the acquiring team. It could also force the Vikings to take on a chunk of money, as it did in the Za’Darius Smith trade.

Potentially getting rid of Cook presents the Vikings with both gains and losses, many of which transcend a player’s ability to blur into the open field with a football.