The Making of Kirddy Couswater
It is no secret to anyone that if Mike Zimmer was given the choice between a QB like Kirk Cousins or one like Teddy Bridgewater, he would go with Teddy Bridgewater 100% of the time. Zimmer loved Bridgewater, had a strong disdain for Cousins, and preferred a QB who did just enough to get a team to win against bad teams most of the time and good teams some of the time, over a QB who would put up huge stats against bad teams while never beating good teams.
In 2015, Zimmer almost had that QB. Teddy Bridgewater wasn't lighting up a stat sheet by any stretch of the imagination, but he was helping to run an efficient offense and he was winning over two games per loss. In 2022, KOC has Cousins not lighting up the stat sheet, but he is winning five games for every loss, something he never approached under Zimmer, despite putting up significantly better passing stats. Instead of getting blown out by every good team he faces and struggling to put-up double-digit points against top ten pass defenses, Cousins is still struggling against those good defenses, but the offense is succeeding regardless (excluding Philly and Dallas that is). KOC is doing with Cousins what Zimmer had wanted to do with Bridgewater and failed to do with Cousins, and the similarities between the two QB statistically in their winningest years are kind of crazy.
EPA/Play
Expected points added per play the two are nearly identical between Bridgewater’s 2015 season and Cousins current one, with Cousins coming in slightly behind Bridgewaters' .101 at .095. For context, Mahomes currently sits at .182 while Baker Mayfield was at -.013.
QBR
Not quarterback rating but ESPN's QBR, which is one of the better predictors of league MVP (when it is a QB). Cousins QBR this year is ranked 21st out of 31 qualifying QBs at 51.5. Bridgewater in 2015 ranked 17th out of 33 qualifying QBs at 57.7. For context here again, Mahomes currently sits at 78.5 and Mayfield at the bottom at 18.3.
Passing DVOA
This isn't as accurate now as it will be by the end of the year, but Teddy's passing offense ranked 19th at 10.3% in 2015 while Cousins' passing offense ranks 19th at 7.1%. Miami currently sits at #1 in this stat with a whopping 43.0% passing DVOA, while Houston sits at the bottom at a horrifically bad -31.3% (the worst since Josh Rosen's rookie season with AZ in 2018).
PFF Stats
2015 Bridgewater
Overall Grade: 68.9 (17th out of 27)
Average Depth of Target: 7.4 (24th)
Adjusted Completion %: 79.2% (1st)
Turnover Worthy Play %: 3.3 (15th ironically tied with Kirk Cousins that year)
Time to Attempt: 2.79 (2nd longest)
Deep Pass %: 10.6 (20th)
2022 Cousins
Overall Grade: 72.7 (15th out of 28)
Average Depth of Target: 7.6 (19th)
Adjusted Completion %: 76.8(13th)
Turnover Worthy Play %: 3.6 (20th)
Time to Attempt: 2.63 (12th longest)
Deep Pass %: 8.7 (21st)
Other Stats:
2015 Bridgewater
TDs: 14
Ints: 9
YPA: 7.2
Rating: 88.6
Attempts: 471
Completion %: 65.6%
2022 Cousins
TDs: 18
Ints: 9
YPA: 6.5
Rating: 88.1
Attempts: 449
Completion %: 64.6%
For the most part the numbers say these two QBs are the same type of QB with a few key differences. First, Cousins is significantly better in the red zone this year than Bridgewater was in 2015 leading to the difference in touchdown passes thrown despite Bridgewater moving the ball better. Even if you include TDs scored with their legs the difference only decreases to three touchdowns. Second, as most of us know that 2015 relied a lot more on the run then the pass which is why Teddy had a similar number of pass attempts in 16 games to what Cousins has thrown in 12. Still, even with those differences, on a per pass basis the similarities are uncanny.
So how did this happen, and should Vikings fans be happy or upset about it? Tackling the second part of this question first, the answer is probably not very happy. Even the most diehard Teddy Bridgewater fans (Funkytown ) would tell you that if Teddy had played exactly like he did in 2015 in 2016, and shown no progression, it would have been time to move on. Teddy playing like he did in 2015 in his second season is one thing, but that lack of production, even while winning, is something you need to move on from if it continued into his 3rd season. And if it isn’t good enough for Teddy in his third season, it sure as heck isn’t good enough for Cousins in his 10th. On top of that, Bridgewater’s play calling was being done by a very mediocre play caller in Norv Turner, and if KOC can’t do better offensively with an improved Oline, more dynamic RB, experienced QB and significantly better receiving options, it is a concerning indictment of his play calling to say the least.
As for why Cousins has suddenly turned into Bridgewater, or perhaps a better comparison and another Zimmer favorite, Andy Dalton, the answer to that is complex, in that the offense and responsibilities are too complex for Cousins, and there are multiple reasons for the decline in statistics. Cousins is struggling moving beyond JJ as a primary target far more than he has in the past and that shows whenever JJ is taken away by a quality, shutdown CB and this could be attributed to him being asked to do too much at the line. There is likely a reason the Vikings offense shifted away from having the QB call audibles with Cousins under center and it might be wise to simplify Cousins’ responsibilities once again. Then there is the fact that a good majority of pure pocket passers are struggling this year more than most due to a shift in defensive strategies. Teams have figured out how to slow the Ryan/Carr/Cousins type of QBs, taking away the plays that inflated their stats that made them seem better than they were.
It isn’t all bad though and there is a reason Zimmer preferred a Bridgewater over a Cousins. Cousins is winning more now than he ever has in his career, and while the stats would tell you he is having little to do with that, Kirk must be doing something to contribute to those wins. JJ isn’t throwing those passes to himself.
In the end the Vikings are 10-2 with Kirddy Couswater, the offense is above average, and the Vikings will almost certainly win the division. As long as a missed chip shot field goal doesn’t result in a first-round playoff loss, this transformation is better than what we had previously with Kirk. Even if success with this level of QB play isn’t maintainable.
In 2015, Zimmer almost had that QB. Teddy Bridgewater wasn't lighting up a stat sheet by any stretch of the imagination, but he was helping to run an efficient offense and he was winning over two games per loss. In 2022, KOC has Cousins not lighting up the stat sheet, but he is winning five games for every loss, something he never approached under Zimmer, despite putting up significantly better passing stats. Instead of getting blown out by every good team he faces and struggling to put-up double-digit points against top ten pass defenses, Cousins is still struggling against those good defenses, but the offense is succeeding regardless (excluding Philly and Dallas that is). KOC is doing with Cousins what Zimmer had wanted to do with Bridgewater and failed to do with Cousins, and the similarities between the two QB statistically in their winningest years are kind of crazy.
EPA/Play
Expected points added per play the two are nearly identical between Bridgewater’s 2015 season and Cousins current one, with Cousins coming in slightly behind Bridgewaters' .101 at .095. For context, Mahomes currently sits at .182 while Baker Mayfield was at -.013.
QBR
Not quarterback rating but ESPN's QBR, which is one of the better predictors of league MVP (when it is a QB). Cousins QBR this year is ranked 21st out of 31 qualifying QBs at 51.5. Bridgewater in 2015 ranked 17th out of 33 qualifying QBs at 57.7. For context here again, Mahomes currently sits at 78.5 and Mayfield at the bottom at 18.3.
Passing DVOA
This isn't as accurate now as it will be by the end of the year, but Teddy's passing offense ranked 19th at 10.3% in 2015 while Cousins' passing offense ranks 19th at 7.1%. Miami currently sits at #1 in this stat with a whopping 43.0% passing DVOA, while Houston sits at the bottom at a horrifically bad -31.3% (the worst since Josh Rosen's rookie season with AZ in 2018).
PFF Stats
2015 Bridgewater
Overall Grade: 68.9 (17th out of 27)
Average Depth of Target: 7.4 (24th)
Adjusted Completion %: 79.2% (1st)
Turnover Worthy Play %: 3.3 (15th ironically tied with Kirk Cousins that year)
Time to Attempt: 2.79 (2nd longest)
Deep Pass %: 10.6 (20th)
2022 Cousins
Overall Grade: 72.7 (15th out of 28)
Average Depth of Target: 7.6 (19th)
Adjusted Completion %: 76.8(13th)
Turnover Worthy Play %: 3.6 (20th)
Time to Attempt: 2.63 (12th longest)
Deep Pass %: 8.7 (21st)
Other Stats:
2015 Bridgewater
TDs: 14
Ints: 9
YPA: 7.2
Rating: 88.6
Attempts: 471
Completion %: 65.6%
2022 Cousins
TDs: 18
Ints: 9
YPA: 6.5
Rating: 88.1
Attempts: 449
Completion %: 64.6%
For the most part the numbers say these two QBs are the same type of QB with a few key differences. First, Cousins is significantly better in the red zone this year than Bridgewater was in 2015 leading to the difference in touchdown passes thrown despite Bridgewater moving the ball better. Even if you include TDs scored with their legs the difference only decreases to three touchdowns. Second, as most of us know that 2015 relied a lot more on the run then the pass which is why Teddy had a similar number of pass attempts in 16 games to what Cousins has thrown in 12. Still, even with those differences, on a per pass basis the similarities are uncanny.
So how did this happen, and should Vikings fans be happy or upset about it? Tackling the second part of this question first, the answer is probably not very happy. Even the most diehard Teddy Bridgewater fans (Funkytown ) would tell you that if Teddy had played exactly like he did in 2015 in 2016, and shown no progression, it would have been time to move on. Teddy playing like he did in 2015 in his second season is one thing, but that lack of production, even while winning, is something you need to move on from if it continued into his 3rd season. And if it isn’t good enough for Teddy in his third season, it sure as heck isn’t good enough for Cousins in his 10th. On top of that, Bridgewater’s play calling was being done by a very mediocre play caller in Norv Turner, and if KOC can’t do better offensively with an improved Oline, more dynamic RB, experienced QB and significantly better receiving options, it is a concerning indictment of his play calling to say the least.
As for why Cousins has suddenly turned into Bridgewater, or perhaps a better comparison and another Zimmer favorite, Andy Dalton, the answer to that is complex, in that the offense and responsibilities are too complex for Cousins, and there are multiple reasons for the decline in statistics. Cousins is struggling moving beyond JJ as a primary target far more than he has in the past and that shows whenever JJ is taken away by a quality, shutdown CB and this could be attributed to him being asked to do too much at the line. There is likely a reason the Vikings offense shifted away from having the QB call audibles with Cousins under center and it might be wise to simplify Cousins’ responsibilities once again. Then there is the fact that a good majority of pure pocket passers are struggling this year more than most due to a shift in defensive strategies. Teams have figured out how to slow the Ryan/Carr/Cousins type of QBs, taking away the plays that inflated their stats that made them seem better than they were.
It isn’t all bad though and there is a reason Zimmer preferred a Bridgewater over a Cousins. Cousins is winning more now than he ever has in his career, and while the stats would tell you he is having little to do with that, Kirk must be doing something to contribute to those wins. JJ isn’t throwing those passes to himself.
In the end the Vikings are 10-2 with Kirddy Couswater, the offense is above average, and the Vikings will almost certainly win the division. As long as a missed chip shot field goal doesn’t result in a first-round playoff loss, this transformation is better than what we had previously with Kirk. Even if success with this level of QB play isn’t maintainable.
