Buffalo Bills wild west entertainment + Crazy Run and Shoot Mustache = Josh Allen. It doesn’t get any more fun than this. Let’s get the show started double time. Would I talk about anything else? I can’t see why I would, Josh Allen is much too interesting. It’s all over the media:


Bills' receivers allegedly have the ability to break off any route and go deep whenever they think they can get behind the safety. Per Bills game broadcasts.

I’m going to take the lazy way out of all the screen prints this week and provide you unlimited access to all this cool stuff Josh Allen does:

Cool Josh Allen Stuff

Or just go out and watch Sports Center (Note to self: check if Sports Center is still an actual show).

The proof is in the stats, just look at how amazing Allen is at those deep throws with QB ratings way above league average more than 20 yards down field.



If you made it past that time suck trap that was the link to all the Josh Allen highlights, I’ll assume you’re interested in how to beat the Buffalo Josh Allens. I’ll start with a truth that I posted for Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray, because like those two, Allen is mobile. But, like them, Josh Allen is a quarterback, the most valuable thing a quarterback does is throw the ball. Here is a comparison for Allen.



Allen might seem so dominant that he looks unbeatable, but I think the Vikings have a few situational and scheme advantages that I think could help them. First off, for all those deep ball highlights, remember Allen's intended air yards per pass is 8.7. Air yards per completion is 7.3. I’m going to put a filter on Allen’s passing heat map:



That doesn’t look nearly as dominant, in fact Allen looks downright ordinary. But you might be thinking “Uhhh… Midwinter, you can’t just take away the thing that Allen is best at.” No, I can’t. But Ed Donatell’s defense can. The entire season I have had the same complaint about the Vikings defense: their safeties line up so deep, they are effectively playing themselves out of all but the deepest passes. I’m purposely re-using a snip I posted after the Dolphins game that I used to illustrate that a safety giving up a 28-yard cushion on 1st and 10 down wasn’t helping:



However, if the primary goal becomes to be “Take away the one thing Josh Allen is best at” then suddenly that defensive scheme has value.

I hereby officially put all complaints about safeties being too deep on hold for one week.

Step one in beating the Bills: to force Josh Allen to play situational football and hit short windows. This isn’t his game. If anything, the Bills' deep shot mentality makes it more difficult. If Allen is waiting an extra split second to see if a receiver is going to break a route deep, that only makes short timing windows harder to hit.  

But what about the Bills' defense?
They are the #1 scoring defense in the league. No team has scored more than 21 points on them. However, it appears the Bills are reliant on playing complimentary football. An interesting stat: When opponent scores 20 or more points, the Bills are 2-2.

Even more interesting, when an opponent scores 20 points, the Bills have had to rely on turnovers to keep pace. Here are the four games where opponents scored 20 or more points:

Bills lose to Dolphins 21-19 – Dolphins had no turnovers in this game

Bills over Ravens 23-20 – The Ravens had their opportunities in the second half, but Lamar Jackson threw two interceptions with the game tied on the Ravens last two drives.

Bills over Chiefs 24-20 – Mahomes threw two interceptions on the Chiefs' first and last drive of the game.

Bills lose to Jets 20-17 – A competent quarterback masquerading as Zach Wilson went 25 passing attempts without an interception.

Taking a look at those four interceptions by Jackson and Mahomes to look for themes:

Interception 1 (Jackson) – ball was thrown at the face of a defensive lineman and popped up for a tipped ball drill. Nothing to learn.

Interception 2 (Jackson) – This one is interesting. A 4th and goal from inside the 3 and Jackson tries to make a play, you can see the rush and Jackson dropping back to float a pass into the end zone that was easy pickings. Just looking at this play, knowing the quarterback is about to try to hit a receiver in the back right corner of the end zone; what do you think is going to happen? Exactly that happened. 



Maybe some lessons here?
1) take the points.
2) run from the 3-yard line
3) if you’re going to throw, make sure it’s a good play with a quick throw and you don’t have a QB try to go all street-ballin, that will just get you beat.
Let's see what the next interception shows about these three lessons

Interception 3 (Mahomes) – A scramble play by Mahomes. This ball was snapped from the left hash and he worked his way all the way across the field before floating it into the end zone against pressure. Many of the same lessons as Jackson’s second interception.



Interception 4 (Mahomes) – One of Mahomes patented side armed throws to get the ball around the defender to intended receiver Skyy Moore. Mahomes locked on Moore and didn’t notice Taron Johnson (just barely out of frame) waiting to jump the route.



The lesson here is very clear: you do not play street ball against the Bills defense, they will stay disciplined and take your ball and go home. The Vikings' passing game will have to be patient and take what is given.

It was when quarterbacks were trying to “make a play” that backbreaking interceptions happened. Given the power structure of the AFC, it makes perfect sense that the Bills defense would be focused on preparing for guys like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes’ specific quirks. Teams haven't had to rely on explosive passing plays either: the Dolphins threw for 171 yards, Wilson threw for 154. It didn’t take a prolific passing attack to beat the Bills, just a disciplined one.

Looking at rush defense and the ability to play ball control. The Bills rush defense is ranked highly (No. 6) but they aren’t much better than mid pack in terms of yards per carry. They allow a 40% conversion rate on 3rd down (17th best). The Bills have a good defense, but it’s not impenetrable.

Step two to beating the Bills is to favor ball control offense and field position over any risky passes. Force the Bills back to step 1: playing situational football (which they aren’t great at).

Other advantages
In addition to those two steps, 1 – Take away the deep ball AND 2 – Play a disciplined offense, there are a lot of things ways the Vikings match up well.

Cousins is a risk averse QB who takes what the defense gives him.

The Vikings' defense is geared towards stopping big plays.

The Vikings' run defense is questionable, especially without Dalvin Tomlinson, but the Bills don’t have a strong running attack.

The Vikings are thin at corner, but the Bills don’t have much depth at receiver.

The Bills get most of their pressure from two edge rushers (Von Miller and Gregory Rousseau), but the Vikings have excellent tackles.

Both teams are good at creating turnovers, but the Vikings are better at not giving the ball away.

How to Beat the Bills
The Vikings tendencies match up better than many teams. The Vikings will correctly be underdogs, but if the Vikings offense can manage 21+ points in the form of two good drives and kick return or turnover, they should give themselves a good chance to win.

Note: this was posted before learning of Josh Allen's playing status for Sunday. I assume he will start, but if it's Case Keenum, his scramble and keep things alive profile doesn't change much.