Vikes "stay hot" in Miami - Who gets your game ball?

MidwinterViking
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Vikes "stay hot" in Miami - Who gets your game ball? Oct 18, 2022 7:49:25 GMT -6 via mobile Reignman and Purple Pain like this

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Post by MidwinterViking on Oct 18, 2022 7:49:25 GMT -6

Oct 18, 2022 7:11:39 GMT -6 Oracle Bone Diviner said:

Oct 17, 2022 19:42:35 GMT -6 Raptorman said:

Any team any given day. It’s why they play the games.

That's a cute cliche but the stats don't back it up. In fact, some teams are more likely to win than others on any given day. It's not a coin flip.

You're going to need to provide those stats. My data says the two best teams haven't even made it to the Super Bowl in the last 4 years.

purplepainforums.com/thread/6011/vikings-super-bowl-contenders-2022

While regular season dominance corresponds with making it to the playoffs with a high frequency, getting from the playoffs to the Super Bowl is much more random. Looking at the last few years, the most dominant teams have actually not made the Super Bowl:

2021
Most dominant teams: Bills (+11.4) and Cowboys (+10.1)
Super Bowl teams: Bengals (+4.9) and Rams (+5.1)

2020
Most dominant teams: Ravens (+10.3) and Saints (+9.0)
Super Bowl teams: Bucs (+8.6) and Chiefs (+6.9)

2019
Most dominant teams: Ravens (+15.6) and Patriots (+12.2)
Super Bowl teams: 49ers (+10.6) and Chiefs (+8.9)

2018
Most dominant teams: Saints (+9.4) and Chiefs (+9.0)
Super Bowl teams: Rams (+8.9) and Patriots (+6.9)

Going back to 2017, Patriots and Eagles were regular season favorites, but even then, the Eagles run is muddied by the loss of Carson Wentz (who. at the time, was not a disaster).

Additionally, with an expansion to 7 playoff teams an additional highly ranked team to lose in the wildcard round.

Playoff games are very closely contested. If you give a favorite a 60/40 chance in the wild card round, 55/45 in the divisional round and 50/50 in conference championship that works out to about 16.5% for the favorites vs 9% for the underdogs to reach the Super Bowl. Two things to take from that:

- 16% is better than 9%, still nothing close to being a sure thing, or even closr to 50/50. Those low odds for a favorite confirm that "any given Sunday" is the only correct approach to playoffs.

- Given that favorites are 0/8 in the last 4 years (16.5% = 1/6 odds), that suggests that, if anything, I'm being too generous to the odds of the favorites.

Last Edit: Oct 18, 2022 7:54:13 GMT -6 by MidwinterViking

andhesloose28
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Vikes "stay hot" in Miami - Who gets your game ball? Oct 18, 2022 7:50:17 GMT -6 MidwinterViking likes this

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Post by andhesloose28 on Oct 18, 2022 7:50:17 GMT -6

That game was a bad spot for us. If you bet sports, everything about that game pointed to the Dolphins. Add in the heat as well which I never realized how much of home field advantage the Dolphins had with the sun. Excellent work by whoever designed that stadium. Probably why they had a lot of success vs brady over the years there. Regardless of who was at QB, that was a game the Vikings probably should've lost when you add in all factors, beside the talent level at QB. To win both games after the London trip, we just played with house money and absolute cashed. Stacking wins is all we could ask for. Now its time to really work during this bye week and get this team together for the long haul and bigger goals.

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Vikes "stay hot" in Miami - Who gets your game ball? Oct 18, 2022 7:54:15 GMT -6

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Post by Raptorman on Oct 18, 2022 7:54:15 GMT -6

Oct 18, 2022 7:50:17 GMT -6 andhesloose28 said:

That game was a bad spot for us. If you bet sports, everything about that game pointed to the Dolphins. Add in the heat as well which I never realized how much of home field advantage the Dolphins had with the sun. Excellent work by whoever designed that stadium. Probably why they had a lot of success vs brady over the years there. Regardless of who was at QB, that was a game the Vikings probably should've lost when you add in all factors, beside the talent level at QB. To win both games after the London trip, we just played with house money and absolute cashed. Stacking wins is all we could ask for. Now its time to really work during this bye week and get this team together for the long haul and bigger goals.

The problem is that the part that gives the shade was an afterthought. The stadium was completed, then they came back and put a roof over the stands.(Stadium was built in 1987, the "canopy, in 2016) The Sideline being in the shade was just luck. Also, all Miami home games in September start after 4 pm.

Last Edit: Oct 18, 2022 8:01:14 GMT -6 by Raptorman

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andhesloose28
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Vikes "stay hot" in Miami - Who gets your game ball? Oct 18, 2022 7:58:10 GMT -6

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Post by andhesloose28 on Oct 18, 2022 7:58:10 GMT -6

Oct 18, 2022 7:54:15 GMT -6 Raptorman said:

Oct 18, 2022 7:50:17 GMT -6 andhesloose28 said:

That game was a bad spot for us. If you bet sports, everything about that game pointed to the Dolphins. Add in the heat as well which I never realized how much of home field advantage the Dolphins had with the sun. Excellent work by whoever designed that stadium. Probably why they had a lot of success vs brady over the years there. Regardless of who was at QB, that was a game the Vikings probably should've lost when you add in all factors, beside the talent level at QB. To win both games after the London trip, we just played with house money and absolute cashed. Stacking wins is all we could ask for. Now its time to really work during this bye week and get this team together for the long haul and bigger goals.

The problem is that the part that gives the shade was an afterthought. The stadium was completed, then they came back and put a roof over the stands. The Sideline being in the shade was just luck.

I mean regardless its there now lol

Purple Pain
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Vikes "stay hot" in Miami - Who gets your game ball? Oct 18, 2022 8:19:12 GMT -6

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Post by Purple Pain on Oct 18, 2022 8:19:12 GMT -6

PFF: 10 most surprising performances from NFL Week 6

EDGE ZA’DARIUS SMITH, MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The last time Smith recorded double-digit pressures in a game was back in 2019 against the Carolina Panthers. Since then, it's been a struggle for him to record six or more pressures in a single contest. But he finally looked healthy and back to his Pro Bowl self in Week 6. Smith tallied 11 pressures against the Miami Dolphins, tallying seven hurries, two quarterback hits and two sacks. He was utterly dominant en route to a 92.0 game grade. This is the first time in several years we've seen him play at this level.

MidwinterViking
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Vikes "stay hot" in Miami - Who gets your game ball? Oct 18, 2022 9:01:45 GMT -6 via mobile Reignman, suncoastvike, and 2 more like this

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Post by MidwinterViking on Oct 18, 2022 9:01:45 GMT -6

I went back and looked at the game flow and there was one key guy who now seems like the obvious winner of the game ball:

Ryan Wright

This isn't a sarcastic "he punted a lot" comment. He was really instrumental in the win. Two things jumped out at me:

First was his 73 yard punt. The Vikings offense had two bad 3 and outs to start the game and the Dolphins looked set to grind out points by trading field position gains over multiple drives then boom, 73 yards (with -2 yard return!) completely flipped the field and the Dolphins offense didn't look threatening for the rest of the half.

Second, 10 punts and the average starting position for the Dolphins following a punt was their own 19 yard line. His worst punt out of 10 was a 43 yard punt (no return) that set the Dolphins up at their own 38. That's amazing consistently. He gave no life to spark a bad offense all game.

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Vikes "stay hot" in Miami - Who gets your game ball? Oct 18, 2022 9:16:56 GMT -6 Reignman likes this

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Post by Oracle Bone Diviner on Oct 18, 2022 9:16:56 GMT -6

Oct 18, 2022 7:26:11 GMT -6 andhesloose28 said:

Oct 18, 2022 7:11:39 GMT -6 Oracle Bone Diviner said:

That's a cute cliche but the stats don't back it up. In fact, some teams are more likely to win than others on any given day. It's not a coin flip.

The only two teams in the league I would not want to play are the Bills and the Chiefs and that is because of Mahomes and Josh Allen. Philly is legit of course and looks like the NFC favorite easily. The Super Bowl is the Vikings goal this year and expectations should be that high since they decided to run it back. So realistically the Vikings would likely have to win 2 games that they "shouldn't" win to be Super Bowl champions. Obviously a lot can change from now until playoffs but I am basing it on how things look now. Do the Vikings look like an ideal super bowl team? No they dont but Ive seen a lot crazier things happen and this team hasnt hit its peak yet anyway.

Too soon to say Philly is legit, IMO. 6-0 can quickly become another 9-8 year like last year. All I can say is that they are playing well this year.

We don't know if the Vikings have hit their peak (we certainly hope not) but we also don't know if they have hit their bottom either. I'm reserving judgement on the 2022 Vikings for now. I've only been able to watch one game so far, but I haven't heard anything to make me confident they have turned a corner toward real contender. I am mildly optimistic because of their seeming "good luck" this year, because "good luck" usually happens to contenders.

There's a ringing in my ear and I think it's the Call of the Wild

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Vikes "stay hot" in Miami - Who gets your game ball? Oct 18, 2022 9:17:32 GMT -6 vikingpwr likes this

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Post by Oracle Bone Diviner on Oct 18, 2022 9:17:32 GMT -6

Oct 18, 2022 7:36:09 GMT -6 diehardtwinsfan said:

Oct 17, 2022 23:08:53 GMT -6 Reignman said:

I'll give the new regime credit for the lack of penalties

Admittedly, this is probably understated... it's another really big reason as to why we've been lucky. This team is a lot more disciplined.

I think there has just been a new directive not to be "out to get" the Vikings until later in the season. Give the new coach a while to believe his team isn't cursed.

There's a ringing in my ear and I think it's the Call of the Wild

itinerant, noun; a person who works and wanders.

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Vikes "stay hot" in Miami - Who gets your game ball? Oct 18, 2022 9:24:57 GMT -6

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Post by Oracle Bone Diviner on Oct 18, 2022 9:24:57 GMT -6

Oct 18, 2022 7:49:25 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

Oct 18, 2022 7:11:39 GMT -6 Oracle Bone Diviner said:

That's a cute cliche but the stats don't back it up. In fact, some teams are more likely to win than others on any given day. It's not a coin flip.

You're going to need to provide those stats. My data says the two best teams haven't even made it to the Super Bowl in the last 4 years.

purplepainforums.com/thread/6011/vikings-super-bowl-contenders-2022

While regular season dominance corresponds with making it to the playoffs with a high frequency, getting from the playoffs to the Super Bowl is much more random. Looking at the last few years, the most dominant teams have actually not made the Super Bowl:

2021
Most dominant teams: Bills (+11.4) and Cowboys (+10.1)
Super Bowl teams: Bengals (+4.9) and Rams (+5.1)

2020
Most dominant teams: Ravens (+10.3) and Saints (+9.0)
Super Bowl teams: Bucs (+8.6) and Chiefs (+6.9)

2019
Most dominant teams: Ravens (+15.6) and Patriots (+12.2)
Super Bowl teams: 49ers (+10.6) and Chiefs (+8.9)

2018
Most dominant teams: Saints (+9.4) and Chiefs (+9.0)
Super Bowl teams: Rams (+8.9) and Patriots (+6.9)

Going back to 2017, Patriots and Eagles were regular season favorites, but even then, the Eagles run is muddied by the loss of Carson Wentz (who. at the time, was not a disaster).

Additionally, with an expansion to 7 playoff teams an additional highly ranked team to lose in the wildcard round.

Playoff games are very closely contested. If you give a favorite a 60/40 chance in the wild card round, 55/45 in the divisional round and 50/50 in conference championship that works out to about 16.5% for the favorites vs 9% for the underdogs to reach the Super Bowl. Two things to take from that:

- 16% is better than 9%, still nothing close to being a sure thing, or even closr to 50/50. Those low odds for a favorite confirm that "any given Sunday" is the only correct approach to playoffs.

- Given that favorites are 0/8 in the last 4 years (16.5% = 1/6 odds), that suggests that, if anything, I'm being too generous to the odds of the favorites.

You want me to provide stats that the Brady Patriots, Brady Bucs, Chiefs and Josh Allen Bills are more likely to win on any given day? They don't always win and in the playoffs its a little but closer to a coin toss because they are playing other good teams, but unless they are playing each other they are usually favored because history=stats says they are more likely to win.

There's a ringing in my ear and I think it's the Call of the Wild

itinerant, noun; a person who works and wanders.

MidwinterViking
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Vikes "stay hot" in Miami - Who gets your game ball? Oct 18, 2022 10:44:47 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by MidwinterViking on Oct 18, 2022 10:44:47 GMT -6

Oct 18, 2022 9:24:57 GMT -6 Oracle Bone Diviner said:

Oct 18, 2022 7:49:25 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

You're going to need to provide those stats. My data says the two best teams haven't even made it to the Super Bowl in the last 4 years.

purplepainforums.com/thread/6011/vikings-super-bowl-contenders-2022

Going back to 2017, Patriots and Eagles were regular season favorites, but even then, the Eagles run is muddied by the loss of Carson Wentz (who. at the time, was not a disaster).

Additionally, with an expansion to 7 playoff teams an additional highly ranked team to lose in the wildcard round.

Playoff games are very closely contested. If you give a favorite a 60/40 chance in the wild card round, 55/45 in the divisional round and 50/50 in conference championship that works out to about 16.5% for the favorites vs 9% for the underdogs to reach the Super Bowl. Two things to take from that:

- 16% is better than 9%, still nothing close to being a sure thing, or even closr to 50/50. Those low odds for a favorite confirm that "any given Sunday" is the only correct approach to playoffs.

- Given that favorites are 0/8 in the last 4 years (16.5% = 1/6 odds), that suggests that, if anything, I'm being too generous to the odds of the favorites.

You want me to provide stats that the Brady Patriots, Brady Bucs, Chiefs and Josh Allen Bills are more likely to win on any given day? They don't always win and in the playoffs its a little but closer to a coin toss because they are playing other good teams, but unless they are playing each other they are usually favored because history=stats says they are more likely to win.

You've taken the stance that the Vikings are not Super Bowl contenders. So yes, I want you to bring data to back that up, or it's just empty platitudes. You have already back peddled to "any given Sunday" and "the playoffs are more of a coin toss".

You bring up the Brady era Patriots, well good news! They haven't existed for 3 years, Vikings win by default.

Brady era Bucs? Right now, I would take the Vikings at home or on the road vs the Bucs.

The Allen Bills have yet to make a Super Bowl even though the 2022 version is certainly a very good team. As are the Chiefs, I will only say "Very good", not "Great" for the 2022 Chiefs because their defense looks more like the 2021 team that failed to reach the Super Bowl than the 2019 Chiefs that won it. But 1 or 2 good - great teams in the AFC has a minimal impact on the Vikings chances.

Right now the Vikings are set up as well as anyone and better than most for a Super Bowl run.

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Vikes "stay hot" in Miami - Who gets your game ball? Oct 18, 2022 11:41:16 GMT -6 Reignman likes this

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Post by Oracle Bone Diviner on Oct 18, 2022 11:41:16 GMT -6

Oct 18, 2022 10:44:47 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

Oct 18, 2022 9:24:57 GMT -6 Oracle Bone Diviner said:

You want me to provide stats that the Brady Patriots, Brady Bucs, Chiefs and Josh Allen Bills are more likely to win on any given day? They don't always win and in the playoffs its a little but closer to a coin toss because they are playing other good teams, but unless they are playing each other they are usually favored because history=stats says they are more likely to win.

You've taken the stance that the Vikings are not Super Bowl contenders. So yes, I want you to bring data to back that up, or it's just empty platitudes. You have already back peddled to "any given Sunday" and "the playoffs are more of a coin toss".

You bring up the Brady era Patriots, well good news! They haven't existed for 3 years, Vikings win by default.

Brady era Bucs? Right now, I would take the Vikings at home or on the road vs the Bucs.

The Allen Bills have yet to make a Super Bowl even though the 2022 version is certainly a very good team. As are the Chiefs, I will only say "Very good", not "Great" for the 2022 Chiefs because their defense looks more like the 2021 team that failed to reach the Super Bowl than the 2019 Chiefs that won it. But 1 or 2 good - great teams in the AFC has a minimal impact on the Vikings chances.

Right now the Vikings are set up as well as anyone and better than most for a Super Bowl run.

As I said, being a contender involves both past and present performance.

Exhibit A: 44 years without a Super Bowl appearance.

Exhibit B: We haven't exactly dominated in 2022, and we've only played 6 games.

Nobody without recent history of contention is a contender in 2022, yet. Were the Vikings Super Bowl Contenders in 2016 because they started 5-0? No. The Eagles aren't either, yet.

There's a ringing in my ear and I think it's the Call of the Wild

itinerant, noun; a person who works and wanders.

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,651 Likes: 31,577 Fan Since: 1998 Member is Online	Vikes "stay hot" in Miami - Who gets your game ball? Oct 19, 2022 8:31:22 GMT -6 via mobile Danchat, vikingpwr, and 2 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Oct 19, 2022 8:31:22 GMT -6