2022 Offensive Woes - same old sputtering offense?

Early-down success is vital regardless.

“It’s about functioning as an offense on those downs that maybe (the people watching) don’t remember,” O’Connell said.

Why the focus on early downs? When the Vikings gain 4 yards or more on first down, they rank second in the NFL in success rate on second down. When the Vikings gain fewer than 4 yards on first down, they rank 21st.

It’s a similar case on second down. When the Vikings need 3 yards or fewer for a first on third down, they rank 15th in the NFL in success rate. When they need more than 3 yards, they rank 23rd.

So, how can the Vikings ensure they’re in more preferable situations? O’Connell must select the correct play based on the game situation and the way his team (and pass protection) is performing. Cousins must then navigate that play by surveying the defense and deciding how best to attack. The other 10 players must then execute the plan.

On Monday, wide receiver Justin Jefferson said the Vikings need to move toward “more quick-game” and that he wishes the offense adjusted more quickly during the Cowboys game. His frustration harkened back to a game earlier this year against the Lions. The Vikings won 28-24, but Jefferson had only three receptions for 14 yards on the day. Afterward, O’Connell and Jefferson spoke and worked together to concoct an approach that led to 10 catches for 147 yards in the next game and paved a path to a seven-game Minnesota winning streak.

This time, they’re operating similarly, with O’Connell and company attempting to adapt again.

If you were wondering why the Minnesota Vikings didn’t switch to a quick passing game after it became clear that the Dallas Cowboys were creating nearly instant pressure on quarterback Kirk Cousins, you weren’t alone.

“Kirk was getting sacked before you’re even get out of the break, it’s definitely a tough situation but we just have to move toward more quick game,” receiver Justin Jefferson said. “Getting the ball out quicker, putting the ball in space and letting people work. Things that we need to adjust throughout the game if things are not working out the way we planned then we need to find a way to adjust and go toward something that will work better for us. We can’t continue to do the same thing throughout the game even though it’s not working.”

Oh?

“Of course I wish we adjusted faster,” Jefferson continued. “Getting the ball out quicker and not letting Micah Parsons and the rest of their D-line get a chance to get back there to Kirk. It’s just things that we need to learn from. This is a new team, it’s a new coaching staff, we’re still learning to play with each other. It’s a lesson learned.”

The Cowboys sacked Cousins seven times and pressured him on 60% of drop-backs in their 40-3 drubbing of the Vikings at US Bank Stadium (per PFF). Only 11 of Cousins’ 30 drop-backs saw him throw the ball shorter than nine yards in the air and he gained just 51 yards on short passes. The Vikings attempted two screens for six yards.

After Sunday’s game, Cousins moved up the standings to ranking as the sixth most pressured quarterback in the NFL — and he has just a 64.4 QB rating when under duress.

While the intermediate passing game has yielded quality results with a 101.4 rating on throws traveling between 10-19 yards, the short game hasn’t been successful. On 203 passes under 10 yards, the Vikings have gained just 1,144 yards, which works out to 5.6 yards per attempt. To put that in context, in 2019 he threw 307 quick passes for 2,036 yards, or 6.6 YPA and in 2020 he posted 7.3 YPA. Last year the team had similar issues with efficiency when the ball came out fast.

Now the Vikings are in a position where it’s going to be very difficult to take their time in the pocket. Cousins averages 2.8 seconds per throw that goes 10-19 yards downfield but he’s unlikely to have many opportunities to spend all day searching for options. His average time from snap to sack this season: 3.0 seconds.

That conundrum isn’t likely to change. The Vikings’ guards rank No. 1 and 3 in pressures allowed this season and backup left tackle Blake Brandel gave up four pressures in 30 snaps against the elite-rushing Cowboys.

A challenge for O’Connell will be how to deploy running back Dalvin Cook. He was used as a pass blocker on just two snaps versus Dallas but he hasn’t been effective as a passing option. This season he’s only gained 4.3 yards per target, which is significantly down from his peak in 2019 where he picked up 8.2 YPT.

The Vikings simply aren’t a max protection team and only used Johnny Mundt as a pass blocker on five snaps, CJ Ham on one and TJ Hockenson on one. That may need to change this Thursday.

The running game is a must for the Vikings as well. Against Dallas they fell too far behind to stick with the run and Cousins was only able to run play-action on four drop-backs. Playing from behind becomes much more challenging when the opponent has a top-notch pass rush.

While the Vikings are 8-2 and standing strong in the NFC North, their new head coach is going to be tasked in the coming weeks with solving a puzzle that doesn’t include one of the best pieces they have in Darrisaw. The competition — Bill Belichick and his pass rush — is as tough as they come. An opportunity exists to figure out this riddle and get right back on track. Otherwise pressure on Cousins could haunt the second half of 2022.