Mundt should be starting TE

Krauser
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Mundt should be starting TE Sept 28, 2022 12:28:31 GMT -6 diehardtwinsfan, Danchat, and 1 more like this

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Post by Krauser on Sept 28, 2022 12:28:31 GMT -6

Sept 28, 2022 9:51:39 GMT -6 Uncle said:

That's all great background/scouting/"fluff" information, but it doesn't mean anything unless you see it in actual on-field situations. And what have Viking fans seen in the first 3 games from "Irv Smith, the Receiver"? In Week 2 they've seen him drop a bigtime catch that could have resulted in a TD that helped get the Vikings back in the game, as well as NOT create separation on at least two occasions off the top of my head where Cousins went to Irv over the middle and the defender was right on top of him to defend the pass. In Week 3 they saw Smith also drop another pass, and while not nearly as "big" as the probably TD in Week 2, Irv now has a reputation of someone we've been told is on the verge of a "breakout" season only to not really break out at all. While Mundt also dropped a pass in Week 2, it was while the Eagles were dropped back in coverage and late it the game when it was already decided, and the times Mundt has caught passes, he's been more effective/dangerous with getting more yards after the catch.

Hard to believe anyone watching the games thinks Mundt has played better as a receiver than Irv.

Mundt is doing a good job as a possession receiver TE2 -- the Tyler Conklin role for a fraction of the price. He's not facing much man coverage (1 target facing man coverage, compared to 6 vs zone) and he's not running routes downfield (all but one of his targets less than 10 yards downfield, including 3 behind the LOS). The one target he got beyond the sticks was the intermediate route on the bootleg right vs the Lions. He hasn't had to make a catch in traffic or through contact. His YAC has mostly been uncontested.

Smith meanwhile is playing as a receiving TE1 -- running routes downfield (4 targets at 10+ yards, vs only one behind the LOS) and facing man coverage while doing so (9 targets vs man, compared to 4 vs zone). He's been getting open downfield, which is valuable, and he's earning a strong share of the targets, which predicts future production.

Yes he is getting open, even though he didn't "create separation" on the two failed 3rd downs in the first half of the Eagles game, neither of which should've have been targeted by Cousins given the scheme (one he was breaking inside against a LB with inside leverage, and the other he was running a crossing route vs a CB after chipping the edge rusher). You can see the route designs in Luke's video, here:

Irv did have the one terrible drop in the Eagles game and didn't make was a difficult catch down the seam in the Lions game. These are the latest reason to write him off. But he never had drop problems before (his hands were fine in college and he only had 3 drops in 87 targets in 2019-20), so those struggles are more likely temporary as he comes back from his hand injury than something that's going to define the rest of his career.

I guess it's natural to want to jump to conclusions, but I think fans should hold their fire. Irv has been doing a lot of things right, he just needs to complete the catches. There's no reason to think he can't.

Uncle
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Mundt should be starting TE Sept 28, 2022 13:55:07 GMT -6 PurpleKoolaid and Purple Pain like this

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Post by Uncle on Sept 28, 2022 13:55:07 GMT -6

Sept 28, 2022 12:28:31 GMT -6 Krauser said:

Hard to believe anyone watching the games thinks Mundt has played better as a receiver than Irv.

I don't think the fan concern/conclusion is that Mundt has been playing as a better "receiver" than Irv Smith, it's that Mundt has been playing a better "TE" than Irv Smith. To Jor-El 's point on the prior page, the more "receiving" snaps you give Irv, the less snaps you're giving other actual WR weapons in Osborne and Reagor. Braun even admitted at the end of that video you shared that treating Irv Smith like a WR had "mixed" results and the one tweak he would do is utilize him more like a "regular" TE and try to get favorable matchups vs LB's than DB's.

Sept 28, 2022 12:28:31 GMT -6 Krauser said:

I guess it's natural to want to jump to conclusions, but I think fans should hold their fire.

Hence why I mentioned that it's only a 3-game sample size...

But, this thread was started for a reason...and Braun wrote that article and made that video for a reason...and part of the reason goes beyond the drops Irv's had in Weeks 2 & 3 this season; it's the fact that the Vikings invested a 2nd Rd pick in him and they've been hearing from the NFL & Viking-specific beat writers for a few year's that Irv's on the verge of a "breakout" season (here's an example of an article on the Vikings.com website that references Irv being a 2022 breakout candidate from Greg Rosenthal - link), and with fan expecations high heading into the 2022 season since they chose the "competitive rebuild" route, the nails are starting to be chewed when it comes to waiting on that "breakout", they'll be bleeding before too long...

So yes, fans "holding their fire" seems logical...for now...and while the team continues to win...but when you're talking "L's" and "cap dollars", both of thing items come with scrutiny and it's only natural for fans to look for the low-hanging fruit to point the finger at, and 2nd Rd Pick, Irv "Breakout at any moment" Smith is a ripe fruit to pluck...

Last Edit: Sept 28, 2022 13:56:07 GMT -6 by Uncle

Krauser
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Mundt should be starting TE Sept 28, 2022 14:24:00 GMT -6 andhesloose28 and vikingpwr like this

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Post by Krauser on Sept 28, 2022 14:24:00 GMT -6

Sept 28, 2022 13:55:07 GMT -6 Uncle said:

But, this thread was started for a reason

Right, but no good reason.

Irv would've had a breakout year last year already, if he hadn't hurt his knee. He was the best player on the team in preseason.

Now he's coming back from a thumb injury and he's dropped 2 (1 or 2, I say 2) passes. If he makes those catches, he has something like 160 receiving yards and 2 TDs in his first 3 games.

But of course he didn't catch those passes. Maybe those drops are deeply significant and going to predict the rest of his career -- Irv Smith going to bust out of the NFL because he drops 10-20% of his targets from now on.

Or maybe he's just getting back up to speed from a hand injury and that won't be the case, as he never had a problem with drops before.

I don't think it's a tough call. Smart money still says he's a good player who will produce if he stays healthy.

Jor-El
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Mundt should be starting TE Sept 29, 2022 10:00:57 GMT -6 PurpleKoolaid, HunterMorrow, and 3 more like this

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Post by Jor-El on Sept 29, 2022 10:00:57 GMT -6

Sept 28, 2022 14:24:00 GMT -6 Krauser said:

I don't think it's a tough call. Smart money still says he's a good player who will produce if he stays healthy.

Yes, Smith might still develop and the coaches are giving him chances - or, at least they gave him more chances in Detroit despite his key drop in Philadelphia. But if he hasn't recovered from the injury, shouldn't they be seeing that in practice?

Even if he does get on track, I think the expectations about Smith by many fans (self included) have been unrealistic. We want a receiver that will dictate coverage changes by opponents and produce a high number of receptions and yards. But that's rare in the NFL: only 3 TEs got +1,000 yards last year (Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts), and there are only a couple others active who have (George Kittle, Darren Waller). But some of those guys have speed and athleticism like a WR, which Smith does not (unless the WR in question is Laquon Treadwell). And they are all significantly bigger than Smith, most 6-5 and 250+ compared to Smith at 6-2, 240.

The nearest current starting NFL TE I could find to Smith is Evan Engram, former Giant now with the Jaguars. He's 6-3 and listed at 240, so just an inch taller than Smith. But Engram ran a damn fast 4.42 40 (Smith ran 4.63) and utterly spanked Smith in all athleticism tests. Even so, Engram has been no more than "pretty good", catching 64 passes and 6 TDs in his best season.

Run a RAS comparison of Smith to almost any TE in the league and you'll be shocked how poorly he compares. His 40 time is actually the only area that's above average. By NFL standards, Irv Smith is a short, light TE with relatively average athleticism.

Spielman described Smith as a "mismatch receiver" but vastly overrated his potential. Who does he create a mismatch with? Every starting safety in the NFL is as fast as him and most are as tall or taller. All NFL LBs are as big as he is and many are just as fast. Opposing teams see TEs every week who are better than Smith.

I think he can be OK but I doubt that he will be more than average even if he stays healthy. We all thought he was some budding superstar because Spielman told us so and he had a nice 2021 preseason, but he's just another guy and has about the same value as a guy like Johnny Mundt. That's why they are being used mostly interchangeably in this offense.

andhesloose28
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Mundt should be starting TE Sept 29, 2022 10:51:02 GMT -6 diehardtwinsfan likes this

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Post by andhesloose28 on Sept 29, 2022 10:51:02 GMT -6

Sept 29, 2022 10:00:57 GMT -6 Jor-El said:

Yes, Smith might still develop and the coaches are giving him chances - or, at least they gave him more chances in Detroit despite his key drop in Philadelphia. But if he hasn't recovered from the injury, shouldn't they be seeing that in practice?

Again its irrelevant because he didn't, but if he catches those 2 balls I think we are thinking of Irv differently. Hes still a mismatch when hes on an opposing teams LB and provides traits that Mundt cant. Hes never had a pass dropping issue so im going to assume the thumb isnt healthy yet. Im not an Irv "stan" by any means Ive basically written him off since last years injury and this years thumb, its basically a bonus to me anything he produces. But im still willing to keep giving him chances. Dont forget that diving catch on the sideline, I dont think any other TE rostered here is making that play. I like the combo and even the rotation they have with all 3 of them, and all had catches last game. Im ok with that.

Last Edit: Sept 29, 2022 10:52:16 GMT -6 by andhesloose28

Jor-El
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Mundt should be starting TE Sept 29, 2022 12:21:16 GMT -6 Purple Pain and kmillard like this

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Post by Jor-El on Sept 29, 2022 12:21:16 GMT -6

Sept 29, 2022 10:51:02 GMT -6 andhesloose28 said:

Sept 29, 2022 10:00:57 GMT -6 Jor-El said:

Yes, Smith might still develop and the coaches are giving him chances - or, at least they gave him more chances in Detroit despite his key drop in Philadelphia. But if he hasn't recovered from the injury, shouldn't they be seeing that in practice?

Again its irrelevant because he didn't, but if he catches those 2 balls I think we are thinking of Irv differently. Hes still a mismatch when hes on an opposing teams LB and provides traits that Mundt cant. Hes never had a pass dropping issue so im going to assume the thumb isnt healthy yet. Im not an Irv "stan" by any means Ive basically written him off since last years injury and this years thumb, its basically a bonus to me anything he produces. But im still willing to keep giving him chances. Dont forget that diving catch on the sideline, I dont think any other TE rostered here is making that play. I like the combo and even the rotation they have with all 3 of them, and all had catches last game. Im ok with that.

Yeah: he can be OK, and we don't have anyone better than him or Mundt on the roster, so we just have a fair rotation between them. But my caveat would be that Smith, with his average tools, needs to excel at things like route-running and catch concentration. Is he doing that?

-> "Hes still a mismatch when hes on an opposing teams LB"
Maybe some LBs are a couple steps slower, but there are plenty who can stay with him. Is he going to blow past the Saints' Pete Werner? I'll be surprised if he does.

I think Spielman misread the current trend when he picked Smith. There was a period when smaller TEs like Jordan Reed were effective, and Spielman did compare Smith with Reed. But the dominant TEs now have size - even the fast ones that are primarily receivers win with their height and long arms. Smith is a tweener and is going to be a role player.

(Now, he can feel free to go out and prove me wrong Sunday and the rest of the season...)

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Mundt should be starting TE Sept 29, 2022 12:36:52 GMT -6

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Post by Danchat on Sept 29, 2022 12:36:52 GMT -6

Sept 29, 2022 10:00:57 GMT -6 Jor-El said:

The nearest current starting NFL TE I could find to Smith is Evan Engram, former Giant now with the Jaguars. He's 6-3 and listed at 240, so just an inch taller than Smith. But Engram ran a damn fast 4.42 40 (Smith ran 4.63) and utterly spanked Smith in all athleticism tests. Even so, Engram has been no more than "pretty good", catching 64 passes and 6 TDs in his best season.

That's a good comparison, Engram has also had plenty of injury and dropping problems just like Irv has had, but has continued to get several chances at a starter because teams like his traits. I would definitely take a 65-600-6 year from Irv like Engram's best year, and he could settle down as a solid starting TE.

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Mundt should be starting TE Sept 30, 2022 9:53:01 GMT -6 vikingpwr likes this

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Post by Purple Pain on Sept 30, 2022 9:53:01 GMT -6

Lewis: Vikings TE Irv Smith Jr., hardened by season lost to injury, still aiming to break out

The narrative around Smith during training camp in 2021 was clear. The Vikings had released veteran tight end Kyle Rudolph, and Smith was primed for a larger role. And he seemed more than capable of handling the task.

“One thing that stood out the past two days is how much Irv Smith Jr. is getting the ball,” one outlet wrote.

“He was very sudden and explosive while working against linebackers in the one-on-one drills,” another detailed.

According to Smith, neither observation was a coincidence. He felt at the time that both his body and technique were better prepared than ever. He understood his role would increase, and he did not take that for granted.

All of which led to the third and final preseason game, a matchup in Kansas City against the Chiefs. Smith said the Vikings had planned for him to play one drive’s worth of snaps. During one play, making a backside block, he tweaked his knee. He did not think much of it at the time, but an MRI the following day showed a torn meniscus.

He would miss the whole season.

“It was devastating,” he said.

Immediately after doctors gave him the diagnosis, he called his mother, Rose Matamoros, who was in the New Orleans airport, boarding a flight to Minnesota to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Ida.

“It was a blow on both ends,” Matamoros said. “There I was, evacuating with my family, my daughter, my grandkids. He called me. I told my daughter to answer. And he was, like, ‘Get Mom.'”

Matamoros heard those words through the phone: Get Mom.

“I’m like, ‘Oh, God,'” Matamoros said. “I don’t know if I’m going to come back to anything here in Louisiana. My son has a torn meniscus. It was a whole domino effect. But I was able to take care of him, to go to surgery with him, to be there for him.”

...

“They always talk about the Tua Tagovailoa touchdown to DeVonta Smith in the national championship game,” Burns said recently. “Well, Irv was on the field. It was a three-by-one formation. Irv was on the other side of Smitty. Irv’s job, in theory, was to basically get across the field and freeze the safety to the side where Smitty was lined up. I always thought Irv did a great job on that. To me, that was a key part of that play.”

Months after Alabama won the national championship, Smith declared for the NFL Draft. He met with 24 teams at the combine. Two coaches, specifically, worked him out at his pro day: Lions head coach Dan Campbell, then the Saints’ tight ends coach, and Angelichio, then with Washington.

“We obviously were interested in him coming out,” Angelichio said, “but Minnesota drafted him.”

Indeed, after becoming the 50th pick in the 2019 draft, Smith found himself a Viking. That November, he ascended to become what then-general manager Rick Spielman called a “big part of the offense.”

“You’re seeing him get split out not just at the tight end position, but they’re moving him to the slot, they’re moving him outside,” Spielman said. “Because he’s a very good athlete to create those types of mismatches.”

He flashed in 2020 as well, though it was most vivid in the two-touchdown performance against the Saints.

Then he suffered his devastating knee injury before the 2021 season. He leaned on his mother, who used to wake up at 3 a.m. to work at Target to provide for Smith. Who had crisscrossed the country chauffeuring Smith to basketball games so he could do what he loved.

“That’s what life is about,” Matamoros said. “It takes a village to raise a child. And sometimes, as a single parent, it’s hard.”

...

“With him, it’s about playing,” the coach said. “When you look at last year — getting hurt and missing a whole season — and then coming back for OTAs and not (being) able to do anything full speed but being engaged mentally, it’s about playing. About executing, seeing the looks. Just playing. He just needs to play. It’s been over a year (since) he’s consistently played.”

Only four active tight ends have been targeted more before the conclusion of their 24-year-old seasons than Smith: Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson, Cole Kmet and Kyle Pitts. Among those four, only Fant and Pitts average more yards per target. This season, Smith returned for Week 1 and did not catch a pass on two targets. Then in Week 2 on “Monday Night Football,” he caught five passes for 36 yards and a touchdown — but also dropped that crucial Cousins bomb down the left sideline.

His mother was there in Philadelphia. “As a mom, you feel horrible,” she said. “Because whatever your child feels, you feel. People make mistakes, you know?”

“There are a couple of plays I wish I would’ve made,” Smith said this week, looking down at his hands.

Sitting in the locker room, he does not linger on the subject for long. In this league, with a matchup against the Saints on tap this weekend, you cannot.

Instead, Smith prefers to talk about his motivation.

“My mom,” he said convincingly. “She always wanted better for me.”

Smith then looked up from his hands and stared straight ahead, which felt fitting as it relates to his future.

Full read:

theathletic.com/3640015/2022/09/29/irv-smith-jr-vikings-injury/

jrmental Ball Boy Posts: 68 Likes: 78	Mundt should be starting TE Oct 2, 2022 9:03:44 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by jrmental on Oct 2, 2022 9:03:44 GMT -6 Yeah because Mundt doesn’t drop passes like Irv

James Franchise Player Posts: 3,329 Likes: 2,413	Mundt should be starting TE Oct 2, 2022 11:53:17 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by James on Oct 2, 2022 11:53:17 GMT -6 After what I seen today imma say no. Lol

Purple Pain
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Mundt should be starting TE Oct 3, 2022 9:32:07 GMT -6

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Post by Purple Pain on Oct 3, 2022 9:32:07 GMT -6

Fantasy-related, but offers some insight:

Irv Smith Jr.’s lower ceiling: Smith has only played in passing situations. He was still recovering from injury to start the season, but his role has remained unchanged.

The Vikings continue to use Johnny Mundt as their early-down tight end.
Ben Ellefson has also been used extensively as the third tight end, particularly in 21 and 22 personnel.
Smith still has touchdown potential in the Vikings' offense and is used at times on the outside, which also helps, but his volume will always be limited in this role.
He could still be a fantasy starter in the right matchup, but he won’t be a consistent fantasy starter as long as he’s in this role.

www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-nfl-week-4-fantasy-football-recap-immediate-takeaways-sunday-2022