[OC] A Gravitational Pull Toward ... Bad Luck?

No problem, happy to help. I know what it's like, the old brain cells ain't what they used to be

Just a quick reminder, this entire project is about bad luck and how much of it each QB has suffered. Charts are ranked from who has the most bad luck to the least amount of bad luck. Not bad luck to good luck, unless you want to look at it in terms of it being good luck to have the least amount of bad luck lol. If I went by good luck it would produce different QB ratings and win%, which maybe I'll do another time.

So up next, defensive bad luck. This is about the lack of support a QB has gotten from his own defense. I changed up the format a little bit, added passer rating, and now you'll see 3 different versions of Kirk Cousins in the top 100, one with just his numbers with the Redskins, just the Vikings, and total. I went back and changed the pass blocking charts to match the new format too. Annnnnnnnd I just now realized I forgot to add the average grade column. It's always something. I'll update that later.

TGS = total QB starts 2006-2021
GS = number of starts where your own defensive grade was below avg
LUCK = GS divided by TGS (aka bad luck score in this category)



It's not just about the bad luck though, it's also about how a QB handled the bad luck, which is why I included win%. Tom Brady yes has had less bad luck than Cousins, but he's also dealt with it much better too. He still wins .706 of his games when his defense is below average. Cousins just .391. Rodgers hasn't had a ton of defensive support, but has still managed to win .540 when his defense has a bad game.

Cousins year by year. The yearly ranks go by where that single year would fall into the top 100 chart above.



Wow, talk about a tale of 2 halves. Cousins got a ton of defensive support those first 2 years with the Vikings, but not so much the past 2.

And I've created a new team chart covering the entire era 2006-2021. I'll add another one eventually for just 2021.



Bad luck leader board through the 2 categories so far:



Calculated by ((PBLK GS + DEF GS) ÷ (total starts x 2))

And just for fun, how do the QB's do when their pass blocking and defense both fail to show up in the same game?



Cousins is a mystery lol. 3rd best passer rating in these games, but his win% is still about league avg. One might say he's still a gravitational pull toward .500 average even when you factor in the bad luck.

The sample size for this kind of chart will get increasingly smaller as I add more bad luck categories.

I think next I'll take a look at receiving bad luck. I don't think Cousins has had bad luck in that category. Not with the Vikings anyway, but maybe with Washington?

And we're finally back with the 3rd installment of bad luck. This time we take a look at a QB's receiving bad luck. First another quick a reminder. This is entirely about bad luck, not overall luck. QB's are ranked from the worst bad luck, to the least bad luck. Bad luck meaning, percentage of games the PFF rating in a particular category (receiving for this one) was below average. Good luck (PFF ratings above average) would produce entirely different results.

All the previous charts, and the ones below are for 2006-2021.

As expected, Cousins has benefited from some pretty good receiving in his career, especially with the Vikings.



Cousins year by year. The yearly ranks go by where that single year would fall into the top 100 chart above. Oof, half the games were below avg last year. I didn't see that coming.



Finally team receiving bad luck. The Vikings can't complain about receiver luck.



For those of you keeping score at home, here are the Bad Luck standing through the 3 categories.