Week 1 - Packers @ Vikings Support Group

I would rather take a clear position based on my own analysis and be wrong than to spout of platitudes that bring no reading value.  So with that said, here is my take:

Thing that I view as relevant to the game:

1) Justin Jefferson is relatively untested against Jaire Alexander.  I can't learn much from game 1 of his rookie season and they have only had one other matchup.  If Alexander plays well and can lock down Jefferson 1:1, that frees up the rest of the Packers secondary to take on the strength of the Vikings (their skilled, deep receiving corps that should drive a good offense).  That said, the Kevin O'Connell model seem to be based on not giving Alexander the chance to lock down Jefferson all game. 

2) Rodgers stunk out loud under pressure in 2021.  The Packers are missing their top 2 tackles.  The Vikings have all healthy pass rushers this year, unlike last year.  The Packers are missing their #1 receiver as well as their top two receivers from last year.  Rodgers is great at checking down to RBs, especially when a series of downs is on schedule and the RB can pick up the first down - however that's made a lot easier if there is a dangerous deep passing threat behind those RBs, and I don't know if that exists.  

3) Which defensive line do you like more?
A) DJ Wonnum - Armon Watts - Dalvin Tomlinson - Everson Griffen with Sheldon Richardson as the 1st rotation guy
B) Danielle Hunter - Harrison Phillips - Dalvin Tomlinson - Za'Darius Smith with DJ Wonnum or Ross Blacklock as the 1st rotation guy
I like B more, a lot more.  A is the Defensive line used against the Packers last year.  B is the starting Defensive line now.  A lazy take is "durrrr, the Packers run game is good cuz dey was good last time"   Yeah, last time when they were running against backups.  

4) I question how solid this elite Packers defense really is.  Raw stats like yardage and scoring say they were decent.  Advances metrics and per play / per drive metrics had them less elite in 2021.  What I do know, is the Packers defense benefited from good complimentary football from the Packers offense last year.  That is not a given this year.  

I could say, I think something waffling and cowardly and say I think that favors the Vikings.  However, that don't cut it as a line in the sand.  So...

I like the Vikings to win this game by double digits.