[OC] 2022 Vikings Roster vs Salary Cap Trends
Jul 29, 2022 14:58:08 GMT -6
Reignman, Funkytown, and 1 more like this
Post by MidwinterViking on Jul 29, 2022 14:58:08 GMT -6
Earlier this offseason I was looking for trends in roster construction that led to success.
Successful Salary Cap Trends
That post revealed an interesting pattern: teams with at least 5 high priced veterans had an uncommonly high win %.
I’ve thought about why this is and here is my logic: Every team is made up mostly of vet-minimum or rookie deals. The best players are rare, it is hard for a team to gather more than 2 or 3 of them on a roster. These players are paid at the top of the market, so outperforming their contracts is almost not possible; but they will play a lot of snaps with what should be a high floor. The solid foundation those high value vets provide allows the team to unlock the potential of cheaper guys.
Whatever the reason, over the last three years, teams with 5 or more expensive players (earning more than 6% of cap) have a very high win percentage: .717% and 0 losing seasons for 8 teams.
Why 6%? The real reason is if I set the threshold lower, too many players make the cut, higher and there aren’t enough players and teams to measure. Also, about half of NFL rosters are rookie and vet minimum deals, therefore teams spend 75% of their salary cap on about 25 players that is about 3% of cap each; 6% looks at the guys who would double this and really stand out in terms of cost.
Who matches this trend in 2022
I was very curious how the offseason would shake out – which teams would match this top-heavy roster construction that has been successful. There are two teams that meet this criteria:
Arizona Cardinals with six players: DJ Humphries (LT), DeAndre Hopkins (WR), JJ Watt (DE), Budda Baker (S), Kyler Murray (QB), Rodney Hudson (C). This is a very interesting group to test the theory. DeAndre Hopkins is suspended. Rodney Hudson is a center (a position that is not well represented at the high ends of pay). JJ Watt is often injured. However, they do have their left tackle on the list, a mainstay of successful rosters. If the pattern holds and a group of core veterans is resilient, this team should have success despite my reservations
Denver Broncos have 5: Russell Wilson (QB), Garett Bolles (LT), Justin Simmons (FS), Bradley Chubb (OLB), Ronald Darby (CB). Throw in some cheap high upside talent at key positions like Patrick Surtain II, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy & Randy Gregory. This team looks exactly like the pattern of high performing rosters.
Who is close to the threshold?
Since the list didn’t include the Vikings, I was curious how close they are. Here are all the other teams I consider close to the cutoff. To be close, I wanted to see 5 players that were at least 5.5% of cap instead of 6% (my cutoff was not highly scientific worked for finding the trend, but it's not highly scientific).
Teams that are close to making it are (included is how close the players that don’t make the cut are to 6%):
Bills 4 players: Tre’Davious White (CB), Josh Allen (QB), Tremaine Edwards (ILB), Dion Dawkins (LT) + Stefon Diggs (WR at 5.6/6 for the 6% threshhold)
Chiefs 4 players: Patrick Mahomes (QB), Chris Jones (DT), Orlando Brown Jr (T), Frank Clark (DE) + Travis Kelce (TE at 5.6/6)
Colts 4 players: Matt Ryan (QB), Deforest Buckner (DT), Quenton Nelson (G), Yannick Ngakoue (DE) + Braden Smith (RT at 5.6/6) + Darius Leonard (ILB at 5.4/6)
Cowboys 4 players: Dak Prescott (QB), Ezekiel Elliott (RB), Tyron Smith (LT), DeMarcus Lawrence (DE) + Zach Martin (G at 5.8/6)
The Bills & Chiefs aren’t interesting, they are good no matter the measure – however their presence on this list (along with the Broncos) suggests the criteria might be good. The Colts are the most interesting to me, I don’t think of them as dominant, but this set of stars really does look like a group that should have success. I will be curious about the Colts’ performance this season
Of the above, I’m really only suspicious of the Cowboys, I don’t like Ezekiel Elliot as much as Derrick Henry, the only other RB to hit that pay threshold and their “close” guy is a guard – a lower value position that I am not likely to cut much slack.
Also, the Vikings are obviously going to make the list or I don’t make this post. Here is there situation
Vikings
Two players hit the 6% cutoff: Kirk Cousins, Eric Kendricks
Three players are very close to 6%:
Danielle Hunter (5.9/6): $153K below the 6% cap cutoff, this is a rounding error to me.
Dalvin Cook (5.7/6): $608K below the 6% cap cutoff
Adam Thielen (5.6/6): $823K below the 6% cap cutoff; Thielen had his salary reduced in an extension or he would be above the cutoff line.
Brian O’Neill is the 6th highest cap hit at 4.5% of cap, so he is far enough off to not be a consideration.
Do the Vikings look like the profile of a team that has a top-heavy roster? From the original post.
Is this trend repeatable?
Looking at the trends from these 8 teams:
Tackles are critical; all 8 have at least 1 and 7/8 have their LT on their paid list.
QBs are necessary but don’t dominate. Rodgers and Mahomes are elite, but the other 6 don’t have QBs that blow your socks off (Herbert might one day, but not now).
Pass rushers are well represented with 6/8 teams having a highly paid pass rusher.
Cousins check the box for a QB, Ryan Tannehill has had success and shows up on the list several times. I view his value / skill / cost as being similar to Cousins.
DE’s are well represented in the pattern and Hunter fills that need at the right price.
One thing the Vikings are obviously missing from the repeatable list is a high value tackle. Brian O’Neill is good, but also a right tackle and not that close to the cap %. Christian Darrisaw is on a rookie contract, so he counts as good young talent with upside.
This all comes down to Dalvin Cook then. The only other running back on the 2019-2021 list of top heavy teams was Derrick Henry in 2021.
So the conclusion is: if Christian Darrisaw shows improvement and plays like a budding star (could happen) and Dalvin Cook counts as a star running back (this is risker, because the threshold for this type of back is really high), then the Vikings have a similar roster profile to highly successful teams. (note: the opposite of this is not necessarily true, the season is not entirely dependent on Darrisaw and Cook there were other paths to winning)
Successful Salary Cap Trends
That post revealed an interesting pattern: teams with at least 5 high priced veterans had an uncommonly high win %.
I’ve thought about why this is and here is my logic: Every team is made up mostly of vet-minimum or rookie deals. The best players are rare, it is hard for a team to gather more than 2 or 3 of them on a roster. These players are paid at the top of the market, so outperforming their contracts is almost not possible; but they will play a lot of snaps with what should be a high floor. The solid foundation those high value vets provide allows the team to unlock the potential of cheaper guys.
Whatever the reason, over the last three years, teams with 5 or more expensive players (earning more than 6% of cap) have a very high win percentage: .717% and 0 losing seasons for 8 teams.
Why 6%? The real reason is if I set the threshold lower, too many players make the cut, higher and there aren’t enough players and teams to measure. Also, about half of NFL rosters are rookie and vet minimum deals, therefore teams spend 75% of their salary cap on about 25 players that is about 3% of cap each; 6% looks at the guys who would double this and really stand out in terms of cost.
Who matches this trend in 2022
I was very curious how the offseason would shake out – which teams would match this top-heavy roster construction that has been successful. There are two teams that meet this criteria:
Arizona Cardinals with six players: DJ Humphries (LT), DeAndre Hopkins (WR), JJ Watt (DE), Budda Baker (S), Kyler Murray (QB), Rodney Hudson (C). This is a very interesting group to test the theory. DeAndre Hopkins is suspended. Rodney Hudson is a center (a position that is not well represented at the high ends of pay). JJ Watt is often injured. However, they do have their left tackle on the list, a mainstay of successful rosters. If the pattern holds and a group of core veterans is resilient, this team should have success despite my reservations
Denver Broncos have 5: Russell Wilson (QB), Garett Bolles (LT), Justin Simmons (FS), Bradley Chubb (OLB), Ronald Darby (CB). Throw in some cheap high upside talent at key positions like Patrick Surtain II, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy & Randy Gregory. This team looks exactly like the pattern of high performing rosters.
Who is close to the threshold?
Since the list didn’t include the Vikings, I was curious how close they are. Here are all the other teams I consider close to the cutoff. To be close, I wanted to see 5 players that were at least 5.5% of cap instead of 6% (my cutoff was not highly scientific worked for finding the trend, but it's not highly scientific).
Teams that are close to making it are (included is how close the players that don’t make the cut are to 6%):
Bills 4 players: Tre’Davious White (CB), Josh Allen (QB), Tremaine Edwards (ILB), Dion Dawkins (LT) + Stefon Diggs (WR at 5.6/6 for the 6% threshhold)
Chiefs 4 players: Patrick Mahomes (QB), Chris Jones (DT), Orlando Brown Jr (T), Frank Clark (DE) + Travis Kelce (TE at 5.6/6)
Colts 4 players: Matt Ryan (QB), Deforest Buckner (DT), Quenton Nelson (G), Yannick Ngakoue (DE) + Braden Smith (RT at 5.6/6) + Darius Leonard (ILB at 5.4/6)
Cowboys 4 players: Dak Prescott (QB), Ezekiel Elliott (RB), Tyron Smith (LT), DeMarcus Lawrence (DE) + Zach Martin (G at 5.8/6)
The Bills & Chiefs aren’t interesting, they are good no matter the measure – however their presence on this list (along with the Broncos) suggests the criteria might be good. The Colts are the most interesting to me, I don’t think of them as dominant, but this set of stars really does look like a group that should have success. I will be curious about the Colts’ performance this season
Of the above, I’m really only suspicious of the Cowboys, I don’t like Ezekiel Elliot as much as Derrick Henry, the only other RB to hit that pay threshold and their “close” guy is a guard – a lower value position that I am not likely to cut much slack.
Also, the Vikings are obviously going to make the list or I don’t make this post. Here is there situation
Vikings
Two players hit the 6% cutoff: Kirk Cousins, Eric Kendricks
Three players are very close to 6%:
Danielle Hunter (5.9/6): $153K below the 6% cap cutoff, this is a rounding error to me.
Dalvin Cook (5.7/6): $608K below the 6% cap cutoff
Adam Thielen (5.6/6): $823K below the 6% cap cutoff; Thielen had his salary reduced in an extension or he would be above the cutoff line.
Brian O’Neill is the 6th highest cap hit at 4.5% of cap, so he is far enough off to not be a consideration.
Do the Vikings look like the profile of a team that has a top-heavy roster? From the original post.
Looking at the trends from these 8 teams:
Tackles are critical; all 8 have at least 1 and 7/8 have their LT on their paid list.
QBs are necessary but don’t dominate. Rodgers and Mahomes are elite, but the other 6 don’t have QBs that blow your socks off (Herbert might one day, but not now).
Pass rushers are well represented with 6/8 teams having a highly paid pass rusher.
DE’s are well represented in the pattern and Hunter fills that need at the right price.
One thing the Vikings are obviously missing from the repeatable list is a high value tackle. Brian O’Neill is good, but also a right tackle and not that close to the cap %. Christian Darrisaw is on a rookie contract, so he counts as good young talent with upside.
This all comes down to Dalvin Cook then. The only other running back on the 2019-2021 list of top heavy teams was Derrick Henry in 2021.
So the conclusion is: if Christian Darrisaw shows improvement and plays like a budding star (could happen) and Dalvin Cook counts as a star running back (this is risker, because the threshold for this type of back is really high), then the Vikings have a similar roster profile to highly successful teams. (note: the opposite of this is not necessarily true, the season is not entirely dependent on Darrisaw and Cook there were other paths to winning)
... and neither is this Chris guy.