Must Fix vs. Must Maintain for 2022
Jul 18, 2022 16:21:22 GMT -6
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Reignman, Funkytown, and 1 more like this
Post by MidwinterViking on Jul 18, 2022 16:21:22 GMT -6
Last season, Minnesota’s offense ranked 17th in total DVOA according to Football Outsiders and 17th in EPA per play according to rbsdm.com. On the flip-side, the Vikings’ 2021 defense ranked 16th in total DVOA and 12th in EPA per play.
These rankings certainly don’t make it seem like Minnesota had a “crap defense” last season that was preventing the team from accomplishing their goals.
These rankings certainly don’t make it seem like Minnesota had a “crap defense” last season that was preventing the team from accomplishing their goals.
Then DVOA wasn't watching the actual games.
As an example, let's say there is a DVOA that measures your ability to get a good night's sleep. If you went the first 7.5 out of 8 hours without a complete breakdown of your digestive system utterly befouling yourself and your bed.
Would you wake up thinking that was great night's sleep? Because DVOA would measure that as a pretty good 90+% sleeping success rate on a minute by minute basis. Would you spouse wake up and say "OH MY GOD YOU JUST had a good night of sleep on a minute by minute adjusted average."
What about an airplane that makes it most of the way to the airport? That has a pretty good overall flight quality DVOA, on average mostly free of fiery explosions.
How was you camping trip? On average, most nights you were NOT mauled by a bear? That sounds nice.
What about an NFL defense that makes some good plays, even a few good series before getting run off the field? Does the crowd hold back the boo-birds because there was a series of good stops earlier in the gane? They do not.
DVOA can be a fine tool for figuring out if a team is over or under performing, or who's performance might not be sustainable (in either a good or bad way). But it's not something that can just be taken as a stand alone measure of performance or you get something like this arguement: "The Vikings 2021 defense was actually better than their offense!"