Post by Purple Pain on Jun 27, 2022 9:47:25 GMT -6
All we keep hearing is that the Vikings' defense is going to be so much better with Hunter and Smith. As whoskmoon pointed out in the past, pressure is extremely important. What can we expect this year?
Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith: What can the Vikings expect from the pass rushers? by Arif Hasan
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Rest at link:
theathletic.com/3382033/2022/06/27/vikings-danielle-hunter-zadarius-smith-2/
Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith: What can the Vikings expect from the pass rushers? by Arif Hasan
Analysts have confidence that the Minnesota Vikings offense will produce this season, and there’s a fairly universal consensus that the team will find a way to put up points.
But if the Vikings want to win more games than they have over the last two seasons, they’ll need significant improvement from the defense. That could be hard to come by, even after some position groups have been restocked and the unit has switched to the trendier Vic Fangio/Brandon Staley scheme that the league can’t seem to get enough of.
With the questions the Vikings have in their secondary, it will fall to the pass rush to make life easier for the unit as a whole.
To that end, Danielle Hunter is returning from injury and the Vikings have signed Za’Darius Smith, who missed almost all of 2021 with a back injury sustained before training camp. How those two former Pro Bowlers will perform remains a bit of a mystery. Not only did both players miss portions of last season due to injury, but they also have unusual career arcs, with spikes in performance alongside seasons with less spectacular numbers.
As mid-round picks who were rotational pass rushers early in their careers, neither of them has the full gamut of data that most pass rushers would have at this point, and it’s more difficult to project how they’ll do than others with similar levels of experience.
Some Vikings fans have defaulted to the assumption that both players could hit their 2019 totals, where Smith and Hunter were first and second in the NFL in regular-season pressures, per Pro Football Focus.
But more often than not, players won’t replicate seasons when they were top-five performers. Since 2015, 25 NFL players have placed in the top five in pressures in a single year at least once. Only eight have done it twice or more. Neither Smith nor Hunter is in that group of eight players, so we can’t reasonably expect elite performances from them even if they were coming off healthy seasons.
But if the Vikings want to win more games than they have over the last two seasons, they’ll need significant improvement from the defense. That could be hard to come by, even after some position groups have been restocked and the unit has switched to the trendier Vic Fangio/Brandon Staley scheme that the league can’t seem to get enough of.
With the questions the Vikings have in their secondary, it will fall to the pass rush to make life easier for the unit as a whole.
To that end, Danielle Hunter is returning from injury and the Vikings have signed Za’Darius Smith, who missed almost all of 2021 with a back injury sustained before training camp. How those two former Pro Bowlers will perform remains a bit of a mystery. Not only did both players miss portions of last season due to injury, but they also have unusual career arcs, with spikes in performance alongside seasons with less spectacular numbers.
As mid-round picks who were rotational pass rushers early in their careers, neither of them has the full gamut of data that most pass rushers would have at this point, and it’s more difficult to project how they’ll do than others with similar levels of experience.
Some Vikings fans have defaulted to the assumption that both players could hit their 2019 totals, where Smith and Hunter were first and second in the NFL in regular-season pressures, per Pro Football Focus.
But more often than not, players won’t replicate seasons when they were top-five performers. Since 2015, 25 NFL players have placed in the top five in pressures in a single year at least once. Only eight have done it twice or more. Neither Smith nor Hunter is in that group of eight players, so we can’t reasonably expect elite performances from them even if they were coming off healthy seasons.
It’s tough to accurately characterize Smith’s place among NFL edge rushers. He’s one of only five edge defenders since 2006 to generate at least 100 pressures in a season, per Pro Football Focus, putting him in company with Tamba Hali, Maxx Crosby, Von Miller and Nick Bosa. Crosby and Smith are the only two in that group to fall short of 65 pressures in every other year of their career. Crosby has the excuse of having only three NFL seasons under his belt, but Smith has been in the league for seven years.
Smith’s spike is unique among players generally regarded as high-level pass rushers. While most elite edge rushers have a peak year that stands out from the rest, they generally find a stable level that is still well above their peers. That’s not the case for Smith, who has two seasons of about 60 pressures and little else of note.
This is partially because Smith wasn’t a full-time starter until he signed with Green Bay in 2019. After accounting for his missed season in 2021, analysts only have three seasons of Smith to evaluate.
To see if there were any historical examples of edge rushers with Smith’s career trajectory, we looked through the PFF database to see which players had a similar peak-production year without any other seasons above 70 pressures.
There are only three other players who fit those criteria. One is Crosby, who is not an appropriate comparison for the reasons mentioned above. Another is Hunter, but given that he’s the other subject of this investigation, he’s not the most useful comparison.
The best comparator is Robert Quinn, a veteran who hit his peak in terms of total pressures in 2013. His pressure chart looks pretty similar to Smith’s.
The 2015 and 2016 totals were skewed by missing half of the season. When accounting for that, Quinn’s projections are even easier than they were at first glance: He gets about 40 pressures a year and has only deviated from it significantly to produce his spike in 2013. The biggest difference is that Quinn played as a full-time starter right away. But there’s still a useful comparison to be made. If we look at his early starts, we can find a way to project Smith out going forward.
What the Quinn example tells us is that these spikes largely don’t matter when evaluating a pass rusher, something bolstered by the examples of Miller and Mack. Quinn rarely goes outside of that 40-pressure range.
The problem is that we don’t know what Smith’s true average is, though we can estimate that. His other two seasons of about 60 pressures might be a useful barometer. We also know that in his first three seasons with the Ravens, he averaged 55 pressures per 600 pass-rushing snaps, which is in line with that estimate.
This is a rough guess at best since part-time pass rushers often earn higher pressure rates because they are put in more favorable pass-rush situations. At the same time, it’s fair to expect Smith to have improved as a player from when he first entered the league.
The other element of Smith’s projection is the likelihood that an injury will impact his level of play. Without many details on the back injury Smith suffered before training camp last summer in Green Bay and what kind of surgery he underwent, it will be difficult to predict any long-term effects. Vikings fans familiar with Jerick McKinnon’s injury history, for example, may not be optimistic about Smith’s ability to stay on the field or retain the same burst.
Smith’s spike is unique among players generally regarded as high-level pass rushers. While most elite edge rushers have a peak year that stands out from the rest, they generally find a stable level that is still well above their peers. That’s not the case for Smith, who has two seasons of about 60 pressures and little else of note.
This is partially because Smith wasn’t a full-time starter until he signed with Green Bay in 2019. After accounting for his missed season in 2021, analysts only have three seasons of Smith to evaluate.
To see if there were any historical examples of edge rushers with Smith’s career trajectory, we looked through the PFF database to see which players had a similar peak-production year without any other seasons above 70 pressures.
There are only three other players who fit those criteria. One is Crosby, who is not an appropriate comparison for the reasons mentioned above. Another is Hunter, but given that he’s the other subject of this investigation, he’s not the most useful comparison.
The best comparator is Robert Quinn, a veteran who hit his peak in terms of total pressures in 2013. His pressure chart looks pretty similar to Smith’s.
The 2015 and 2016 totals were skewed by missing half of the season. When accounting for that, Quinn’s projections are even easier than they were at first glance: He gets about 40 pressures a year and has only deviated from it significantly to produce his spike in 2013. The biggest difference is that Quinn played as a full-time starter right away. But there’s still a useful comparison to be made. If we look at his early starts, we can find a way to project Smith out going forward.
What the Quinn example tells us is that these spikes largely don’t matter when evaluating a pass rusher, something bolstered by the examples of Miller and Mack. Quinn rarely goes outside of that 40-pressure range.
The problem is that we don’t know what Smith’s true average is, though we can estimate that. His other two seasons of about 60 pressures might be a useful barometer. We also know that in his first three seasons with the Ravens, he averaged 55 pressures per 600 pass-rushing snaps, which is in line with that estimate.
This is a rough guess at best since part-time pass rushers often earn higher pressure rates because they are put in more favorable pass-rush situations. At the same time, it’s fair to expect Smith to have improved as a player from when he first entered the league.
The other element of Smith’s projection is the likelihood that an injury will impact his level of play. Without many details on the back injury Smith suffered before training camp last summer in Green Bay and what kind of surgery he underwent, it will be difficult to predict any long-term effects. Vikings fans familiar with Jerick McKinnon’s injury history, for example, may not be optimistic about Smith’s ability to stay on the field or retain the same burst.
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On the other side of the field is Hunter. At first glance, his numbers look a lot like Smith’s: Hunter had one peak year along with some more good seasons in which he produced about 65 pressures.
But there are some differences between Hunter and Smith. Hunter was on pace for 87 pressures before his injury last year, and his pressure rate over the early portion of his career, when he was a part-time pass rusher, projects to 80 pressures over 600 snaps.
As with Smith’s performances earlier in his career, Hunter was put in advantageous pass-rush situations as a rotational player. Nevertheless, the numbers favor Hunter. Whereas the former Green Bay linebacker seems to be closer to 60 pressures, Hunter seems more like a 70-pressure player or better. That puts him within striking distance of Mack, resembles Joey Bosa’s career thus far and matches Michael Bennett’s performance.
The bigger question for Hunter is if he can retain his high level of play after multiple injuries. Luckily, the evidence suggests that both injuries Hunter has sustained over the last two years should not substantially increase his likelihood of reinjury or reduce his level of play.
The studies on cervical disk herniations tell us that an athlete who presents with no lingering symptoms and passes an MRI should see no issues with his level of performance or likelihood of reinjury. Not only that, but Hunter played at an extremely high level upon his return.
As for pectoral tears, there have been mixed results from studies. One from June 2021 concluded that there was no change in post-injury performance from players suffering a pectoral tear, even after accounting for position. Another from May of the same year concluded that for defensive linemen and receivers, we should expect some drop-off in play in their second season after injury. In Hunter’s case, that would be the 2023 season.
Neither implicated a player’s level of play in his first season back from injury, so the injury shouldn’t impact how Hunter plays this year.
We should have some confidence then that Hunter is likely to return to form as a pressure producer, especially this fall, with the possibility of putting himself back in the company of defenders like Mack, Miller and Myles Garrett.
But there are some differences between Hunter and Smith. Hunter was on pace for 87 pressures before his injury last year, and his pressure rate over the early portion of his career, when he was a part-time pass rusher, projects to 80 pressures over 600 snaps.
As with Smith’s performances earlier in his career, Hunter was put in advantageous pass-rush situations as a rotational player. Nevertheless, the numbers favor Hunter. Whereas the former Green Bay linebacker seems to be closer to 60 pressures, Hunter seems more like a 70-pressure player or better. That puts him within striking distance of Mack, resembles Joey Bosa’s career thus far and matches Michael Bennett’s performance.
The bigger question for Hunter is if he can retain his high level of play after multiple injuries. Luckily, the evidence suggests that both injuries Hunter has sustained over the last two years should not substantially increase his likelihood of reinjury or reduce his level of play.
The studies on cervical disk herniations tell us that an athlete who presents with no lingering symptoms and passes an MRI should see no issues with his level of performance or likelihood of reinjury. Not only that, but Hunter played at an extremely high level upon his return.
As for pectoral tears, there have been mixed results from studies. One from June 2021 concluded that there was no change in post-injury performance from players suffering a pectoral tear, even after accounting for position. Another from May of the same year concluded that for defensive linemen and receivers, we should expect some drop-off in play in their second season after injury. In Hunter’s case, that would be the 2023 season.
Neither implicated a player’s level of play in his first season back from injury, so the injury shouldn’t impact how Hunter plays this year.
We should have some confidence then that Hunter is likely to return to form as a pressure producer, especially this fall, with the possibility of putting himself back in the company of defenders like Mack, Miller and Myles Garrett.
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Hunter’s production relies on his burst and athleticism, which might mean he’s more subject to the problems presented by injury and its long-term impact on his athletic traits than someone like Smith. But the data suggests that he should be fine.
His likely rate of reinjury is pretty low. Neither the cervical disk herniation nor the pectoral tear is associated with a high rate of reinjury on its own, and the generalized risk of injury of singular neck and chest injuries is below 50 percent. The combined risk of those two injuries producing at least one missed game is likely low as well.
That’s probably why the Draft Sharks Injury Index predicts Hunter has only a 5 percent chance to miss more than two quarters. It helps that Hunter does not have much of an injury history prior to the neck and rarely appeared on injury reports in his first five seasons with the team.
Altogether then, the data tells us that Vikings fans might be appropriately rating Hunter as a high-level player but could be overestimating Smith’s output. The fact that the projected performances in this case look quite a bit like the former Seattle duo Avril and Bennett makes for a simple comparison: If fans are excited to see that level of pass-rushing performance, they may very well get what they want. If they want a more contemporary example, then hypothetically pairing Joey Bosa with Clark might get them excited. On top of that, the worries about their injuries could be overblown, and we could see a full season of games from both players.
While we won’t know if that’s going to be enough to drag the defense up to at least a league-average performance, it’s a good start. Fans are right to be optimistic.
His likely rate of reinjury is pretty low. Neither the cervical disk herniation nor the pectoral tear is associated with a high rate of reinjury on its own, and the generalized risk of injury of singular neck and chest injuries is below 50 percent. The combined risk of those two injuries producing at least one missed game is likely low as well.
That’s probably why the Draft Sharks Injury Index predicts Hunter has only a 5 percent chance to miss more than two quarters. It helps that Hunter does not have much of an injury history prior to the neck and rarely appeared on injury reports in his first five seasons with the team.
Altogether then, the data tells us that Vikings fans might be appropriately rating Hunter as a high-level player but could be overestimating Smith’s output. The fact that the projected performances in this case look quite a bit like the former Seattle duo Avril and Bennett makes for a simple comparison: If fans are excited to see that level of pass-rushing performance, they may very well get what they want. If they want a more contemporary example, then hypothetically pairing Joey Bosa with Clark might get them excited. On top of that, the worries about their injuries could be overblown, and we could see a full season of games from both players.
While we won’t know if that’s going to be enough to drag the defense up to at least a league-average performance, it’s a good start. Fans are right to be optimistic.
Rest at link:
theathletic.com/3382033/2022/06/27/vikings-danielle-hunter-zadarius-smith-2/