[OC] Lord of the R.I.N.G.S: The Fellowship of the Checkdown
The Lord of the Risk In Not Gaining sh*t? The Lord of the Reality In Not Going Short? Yeah something like that.
Like the eagles of Middle Earth, when you need to get to the sticks on 3rd down, Cousins will get you ... part of the way there. He wasn't the king however. I set out to find the true king of the checkdown, and apparently that title belongs to Jarod Goff in 2021. Cousins is about where he always is, league average xD. AKA Super Bowl caliber baby!!
Oh wait.
For this exercise in futility, the definition of a checkdown is simply throwing short of the sticks on 3rd down. I make no distinction between a screen and an actual checkdown cuz ain't nobody got time for dat xD. Yeah unfortunately, I got 372 columns of play by play data here but none of them mention what type of play was called, so all I can do is go by the numbers. Yards to go on 3rd down, minus air yards. If someone has the screen data, I'll gladly recalculate the results. Otherwise this will have to do because I'm not watching all 4806 3rd down passes to figure that out myself.
You need a minimum of 200 pass attempts to qualify.
Yep, Kirk Cousins, he's just like that Matt Stafford fella.
And it's not because Stafford joined the Rams. I checked last year and Stafford was 29th out of 36 qualifiers at 33.85% with the Lions. Cousins was 12th at 46.15%. How bout 2019? More of the same, Stafford 27th/33 at 34.94% and Cousins 17th at 39.02%. His best season with the Vikings, his only playoff appearance. Coincidence?
Cousins 3 highest checkdown games were all losses, Cowboys (80.00%), Bengals (64.29%), and Cardinals (62.50%). 10 3rd down passes in that Cowboys game, 8 short of the sticks. His 2 lowest games were wins, at Bears (9.09%) and Seahawks (20.00%). 11 3rd down passes in that Bears game, 10 past the sticks, for 5 conversions. 8 of 10 past the sticks in that Seahawks game for a whopping 7 conversions. Moar of dose pwease!
Fun fact: You convert 3rd downs about twice as often throwing past the sticks as you do throwing short and praying for Rudolph to break a couple tackles (51.2% to 25.7%). To be fair, your INT rate is a little higher too (4.00% to 2.40%). ..... BUT! How bout that higher TD rate (8.11% to 2.88%)? 
The evidence keeps pointing toward aggressiveness as being the more successful strategy.
Past Checkdown Kings:
FYI Teddy Checkwater is pretty much top 5 every year.
Like the eagles of Middle Earth, when you need to get to the sticks on 3rd down, Cousins will get you ... part of the way there. He wasn't the king however. I set out to find the true king of the checkdown, and apparently that title belongs to Jarod Goff in 2021. Cousins is about where he always is, league average xD. AKA Super Bowl caliber baby!!
Oh wait.For this exercise in futility, the definition of a checkdown is simply throwing short of the sticks on 3rd down. I make no distinction between a screen and an actual checkdown cuz ain't nobody got time for dat xD. Yeah unfortunately, I got 372 columns of play by play data here but none of them mention what type of play was called, so all I can do is go by the numbers. Yards to go on 3rd down, minus air yards. If someone has the screen data, I'll gladly recalculate the results. Otherwise this will have to do because I'm not watching all 4806 3rd down passes to figure that out myself.
You need a minimum of 200 pass attempts to qualify.
CHECKDWN AVG 3RD SEASDOT = average depth of target
PCT 3RD PAST SHORT Y-TOGO DOT DOT PLAYOFFS
1. J.Goff 69.03 113 35 78 7.96 5.69 6.38
2. S.Darnold 57.41 108 45 62 8.11 5.75 7.25
3. T.Bridgewater 54.55 121 55 66 8.69 8.11 8.02
4. R.Tannehill 52.80 161 76 85 7.74 7.98 7.41 DIV, HFA
5. B.Roethlisberger 50.83 181 89 92 7.53 7.87 6.70 WC
6. A.Dalton 50.00 64 31 32 7.45 6.39 6.86
7. J.Burrow 48.09 131 68 63 8.21 8.63 8.11 DIV, CC, SB-L
8. D.Carr 47.55 143 75 68 7.41 10.44 8.12 WC
9. Z.Wilson 47.00 100 53 47 7.58 9.00 7.57
10. T.Heinicke 46.88 128 68 60 7.95 9.54 7.64
11. D.Mills 46.36 110 59 51 8.03 7.09 7.25
12. M.Ryan 45.16 155 85 70 7.34 7.30 7.11
non DIV avg 44.35 3628 2012 1609 10.07 8.75 7.74
13. L.Jackson 44.19 86 48 38 7.98 9.62 9.24
14. K.Cousins 43.90 164 92 72 8.16 10.66 8.16
NFL AVG 43.13 4806 2726 2073 7.60 8.93 7.75
15. C.Wentz 43.07 137 78 59 7.64 9.51 7.67
16. M.Jones 42.11 133 77 56 7.08 7.80 7.98 WC
17. B.Mayfield 41.00 100 59 41 8.13 10.37 8.73
18. J.Fields 40.54 74 44 30 9.07 9.00 9.76
19. D.Jones 40.21 97 58 39 8.21 8.77 7.32
DIV winner avg 39.39 1178 714 464 7.17 9.50 7.16
20. J.Brissett 38.98 59 35 23 6.73 8.25 7.52
21. J.Garoppolo 38.89 108 66 42 8.36 8.16 7.48 WC, CC
22. P.Mahomes 38.78 147 90 57 7.25 9.78 7.33 DIV, CC
23. T.Brady 38.65 163 100 63 6.69 8.66 8.10 DIV
24. R.Wilson 36.89 103 65 38 7.42 12.75 9.89
25. K.Murray 36.61 112 71 41 8.08 10.39 7.92 WC
26. D.Prescott 36.55 145 92 53 6.68 9.61 7.72 DIV
27. T.Lawrence 35.95 153 97 55 7.30 9.42 7.85
28. A.Rodgers 34.81 135 88 47 7.20 11.76 7.68 DIV, HFA
29. T.Tagovailoa 34.34 99 65 34 6.92 9.11 7.03
30. J.Herbert 34.32 169 111 58 7.27 9.84 7.55
31. J.Allen 33.55 155 103 52 7.15 9.05 8.20 DIV
32. J.Hurts 31.48 108 74 34 7.14 9.47 8.99 WC
33. M.Stafford 31.21 141 97 44 6.45 10.91 8.47 DIV, CC, SB-W
Yep, Kirk Cousins, he's just like that Matt Stafford fella.
And it's not because Stafford joined the Rams. I checked last year and Stafford was 29th out of 36 qualifiers at 33.85% with the Lions. Cousins was 12th at 46.15%. How bout 2019? More of the same, Stafford 27th/33 at 34.94% and Cousins 17th at 39.02%. His best season with the Vikings, his only playoff appearance. Coincidence?Cousins 3 highest checkdown games were all losses, Cowboys (80.00%), Bengals (64.29%), and Cardinals (62.50%). 10 3rd down passes in that Cowboys game, 8 short of the sticks. His 2 lowest games were wins, at Bears (9.09%) and Seahawks (20.00%). 11 3rd down passes in that Bears game, 10 past the sticks, for 5 conversions. 8 of 10 past the sticks in that Seahawks game for a whopping 7 conversions. Moar of dose pwease!
Fun fact: You convert 3rd downs about twice as often throwing past the sticks as you do throwing short and praying for Rudolph to break a couple tackles (51.2% to 25.7%). To be fair, your INT rate is a little higher too (4.00% to 2.40%).
..... BUT! How bout that higher TD rate (8.11% to 2.88%)? 
The evidence keeps pointing toward aggressiveness as being the more successful strategy.
Past Checkdown Kings:
2014 Alex Smith 65.08% (Cousins 4th at 59.62%)
2015 Alex Smith 65.29% (Cousins 7th at 56.60%)
2016 Sam Bradford 63.16% (Cousins 17th at 53.25%)
2017 Jay Cutler 55.45% (Cousins 7th at 49.06%)
2018 Ryan Tannehill 55.56% (Cousins 2nd at 51.66%)
2019 Case Keenum 56.72% (Cousins 17th at 39.02%)
2020 Alex Smith 65.45% (Cousins 12th at 46.15%)
2021 Jarod Goof 69.03% (Cousins 14th at 43.90%)
FYI Teddy Checkwater is pretty much top 5 every year.
