Post by Funkytown on May 19, 2022 13:25:03 GMT -6
NFL Betting 2022: Market-implied power rankings and ELO strength of schedule by Ben Brown
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Rest at link:
www.pff.com/news/bet-2022-market-implied-power-rankings-elo-strength-of-schedule
BETTING MARKET-IMPLIED POWER RANKINGS
The power rankings provide relatively clear tiers on the market assessment of each NFL team’s outlook in 2022.
Looking at it from a conference level and going week by week shows the relative uncertainty that the betting market incorporates as we move toward the latter half of the season. The level of uncertainty baked into the extremes will dissipate throughout the course of the season, but it's the most accurate and justifiable approach one can take right now.
Taking some cues from the betting market, we can attempt to assess how the order of games could impact a team's record in 2022 and highlight the most difficult stretches on each franchise’s schedule. We do this by calculating a moving average of each opponent’s preseason ELO ranking and factoring in rest differential and net travel distance.
Below is a box plot of each team’s opposing ELO for each game of the 2022 regular season, sorted by the team’s mean ELO ranking faced. The box shows the teams' first-quartile opposing ELO, median opposing ELO and third-quartile opposing ELO.
For a top-level view, this gives an initial idea of each team's strength of schedule in 2022. It highlights how difficult certain schedules will be and how they may impact outcomes in the win total market.
Let’s take a closer look at each team’s market-implied power ranking by assigning a spread-point value over an average team on a neutral field. We can then examine the most difficult stretches, along with some points on why it will impact whether that team goes over or under their current win total and how best to approach betting teams against the spread to start the 2022 NFL season.
The power rankings provide relatively clear tiers on the market assessment of each NFL team’s outlook in 2022.
Looking at it from a conference level and going week by week shows the relative uncertainty that the betting market incorporates as we move toward the latter half of the season. The level of uncertainty baked into the extremes will dissipate throughout the course of the season, but it's the most accurate and justifiable approach one can take right now.
Taking some cues from the betting market, we can attempt to assess how the order of games could impact a team's record in 2022 and highlight the most difficult stretches on each franchise’s schedule. We do this by calculating a moving average of each opponent’s preseason ELO ranking and factoring in rest differential and net travel distance.
Below is a box plot of each team’s opposing ELO for each game of the 2022 regular season, sorted by the team’s mean ELO ranking faced. The box shows the teams' first-quartile opposing ELO, median opposing ELO and third-quartile opposing ELO.
For a top-level view, this gives an initial idea of each team's strength of schedule in 2022. It highlights how difficult certain schedules will be and how they may impact outcomes in the win total market.
Let’s take a closer look at each team’s market-implied power ranking by assigning a spread-point value over an average team on a neutral field. We can then examine the most difficult stretches, along with some points on why it will impact whether that team goes over or under their current win total and how best to approach betting teams against the spread to start the 2022 NFL season.
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21. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Spread Points Above Average: -0.58
Opponent ELO Ranking: 14th
Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 10-12
Minnesota is once again stuck in purgatory, locked in as a perennially average team playing an average schedule. If things once again turn out poorly, it could finally usher in the actual rebuild that many Vikings fans are hoping for. The worst-case scenario could be another 9-8 season on the brink of the playoffs with no shot of being favored in an actual playoff game
Spread Points Above Average: -0.58
Opponent ELO Ranking: 14th
Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 10-12
Minnesota is once again stuck in purgatory, locked in as a perennially average team playing an average schedule. If things once again turn out poorly, it could finally usher in the actual rebuild that many Vikings fans are hoping for. The worst-case scenario could be another 9-8 season on the brink of the playoffs with no shot of being favored in an actual playoff game
Rest at link:
www.pff.com/news/bet-2022-market-implied-power-rankings-elo-strength-of-schedule
... and neither is this Chris guy.