90 to 53 - Cutdown Tracker to Final 53

My latest:



Looks like Ragatz has the exact same offensive players making the team. Davidson seems to be in, while I've heard nothing about Muse. The OL feels close to set. As for the defense, Bullard seems to be carving out a reserve spot while I think Otomewo hangs on as a weekly inactive. I'm down to 4 LBs, and switched to 6 CBs. I chose Hand because he's played some nickel, but I have no idea if he actually makes the team.

I think Nailor ends up as the 6th WR. They’ll probably only dress 5 most weeks so it’s more of a redshirt on the roster situation than one where he’ll be expected to make a major contribution. I think Nailor could be as good or better than ISM within a year, though I guess I’ve never seen him catch in traffic either. 

There’s not much point in keeping Myron Mitchell. He’s a slot-flanker, which they have too many of already, and he isn’t useful on special teams. As a receiver he’s OK but I don’t think the ceiling is high enough to give him a roster spot for developmental reasons. 

I could see Jackson sticking as WR6 because he’s more likely to be able to line up outside and function as a blocker (the WRs did a lot of run blocking in Vegas, including one play where Bisi had to block the DE). But his skill set mostly replicates Bisi Johnson’s and they only need one backup in that role. I’ll bet he could make it to the PS again and come back in 2024 to maybe win the WR5 job with Bisi gone.

I doubt they’re going to trade for another center. Schlottmann would be fine to keep on the PS in case Bradbury gets injured, and Reed could fill in in a pinch (hopefully he’s recovered and plays C vs the Niners). 

Jesse Davis’ fully guaranteed money is $2.75M so that’s what hits the cap if he’s released, which actually costs $500K more than keeping him. He had one bad rep failing to pick up a stunt but the guy has started in the NFL for 5 years so he’s good depth. 

I actually thought Udoh was pretty mediocre at LT in the Vegas game — wasn’t great run blocking and gave up one ugly pressure around the edge that almost got Mannion injured. Brandel looks bigger and stronger than last year, and was very good at RT (his wrong side). I wonder if they let Oli go (or trade him for a conditional late round pick?) and make Brandel the swing tackle, keep Lowe (whose technique already looks better than in college) as a redshirt 9th OL who only plays if there are multiple injuries. Brandel, Davis and Reed could all be active on game days as backups — that would be good depth, very versatile. 

Ellefson was good but Davidson was surprisingly OK as a blocker, including the play where he washed the DE inside on Chandler’s “wind back” run. Davidson has a wayyy higher ceiling as a receiver so that’s the easy choice. I was hoping Nick Muse would be plug and play as a blocking TE3 but haven’t heard anything from camp about him, and he didn’t even play. Maybe he’s a bust right out of the gate.

My front runner for OLB5 is not having one. Wonnum and Jones both looked very good, and they don’t really need a 5th unless they’re often playing 3 (with one lined up inside). They used the DTs very effectively on pass rush downs with a series of stunts and games, and were very successful compressing the pocket with power and containing the QBs — that may be the model on 3rd downs instead of a “NASCAR” package with 3 edge rushers and an undersized DT, like Zimmer used. Of the depth OLBs, Robinson wasn’t great and McCloud was the only one of the UDFAs to make any impact, and that was so late in the game that he’s clearly behind Vilain on the depth chart. I think they keep just the top 4 OLBs, put 1-2 of the depth guys on the practice squad and that’s fine.

I don’t know what they do for a backup nickel. I think Booth could do it, might even be the perfect spot for him given his agility and aggression and his questionable long speed. Nickerson is a practice squad quality player, don’t really want him on the roster. I like what Hairston did in Denver but he’s been stuck with the 3rd string since coming back from his injury. They do need to have a plan for what would happen if Sullivan got hurt. 

Fun/strange fact. Something I hadn’t even considered.

When I go to OverTheCap and cut all the players who don’t make my 53 roster, our cap changes quite significantly. The 2023 cap goes from $644,491 to $15,917,209. The 2022 cap goes from $10,415,085 to $17,347,271.

I guess I was so focused on 2022, I didn’t stop to think how the cuts would impact 2023.

Drafting for need is how you can end up with busts - there weren't any centers worth that 2nd round pick in my opinion. RG was just as much a weakness, even with Davis and Reed competing for a spot, that's not a long-term solution.

I don't expect a new regime to come in and fill every hole the roster had, so I don't mind them giving Bradbury another chance compared to reaching on a rookie center and forcing him to start right off the bat. KAM said this was a 'competitive rebuild' - if we were in 'win now' mode, Bradbury starting would be unacceptable.

Drafting for need, when you need a center is bad, drafting for need when you need a guard, is a good idea. Gotcha. Now we still have one of the worst C in the NFL for pass protection, and no backup, for the past 4 years.

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