Double 1st round trade down

If Gardner or Stingley are available at 12, then by all means, we take them.  However, if they are not, we don't need to reach or select a day one starter.  We have options and there has been reports that we are in talks with KC.  Here's how I see that possibly going down.

To make sure the trades are even and therefore realistic, I am using the Rich Hill draft point system that's on drafttek.com.

We start this draft with 13th most draft points.  We have the following picks (by round):
1, 2, 3, 5, 6(3 picks), & 7

Vikings trade to KC the following picks:
12, 191, 192, 250, & a 5th round in 2023.
Total points equals 368-376

KC trades to the Vikings the following picks:
30, 50, 103, & 121.
Total points equals 371 points

KC currently has 12 picks.  They are looking to replace Hill with a top pick WR.  In turn, the Vikings keep a 1st round pick while picking up another 2nd, another 3rd, and a 4th.

AFTER this first trade, we have the following picks:
1, 2(2), 3(2), 4, 5, & 6

BUT WE'RE NOT DONE

Atlanta still might be looking for a QB.  SO we trade with them to garner more capital.

Vikings trade to Atlanta the following picks:
30 
Total points equals 196 points.

Atlanta trades to the Vikings the following picks:
58, 74, 114, & 151
Total points equals 196 points.

AFTER this second trade, we have the following picks:
2(3), 3(3), 4(2), 5(2), & 6.  11 picks all together.

SO HOW DOES THIS IMPACT THE DRAFT:

Using nflmockdraftdatabase.com, I was able to make the following selections:
46 - Jalen Pitre, Safety, Baylor
50 - Perrion Winfrey, DL, Oklahoma
58 - Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
74 - Marcus Jones, CB, Houston
77 - Cole Strange, IOL, Chattanooga
103 - Jeremy Ruckert, TE, Ohio State
114 - James Cook, RB, Georgia
121 - Danny Gray, WR, SMU
151 - Alex Wright, EDGE, UAB
156 - Matt Waletzko, OT, North Dakota
184 - Kalon Barnes, CB, Baylor

At least one player from each position except QB and special teams.  I wanted the WR Watson and if he was there, my draft would have been slightly different.

Oh just for fun - with the 12th pick, KC took WR London from USC.
with the 30th pick, Atlanta took EDGE Ojabo from Michigan

For fun, I just took a moment to mock draft PFF.com.  Here's what I came up with:
46 - Jalen Pitre, Safety, Baylor
50 - Leo Chenal, LB, Wisconsin
58 - Kingsley Enagbare, EDGE, South Carolina
74 - Marcus Jones, CB, Houston
77 - Cole Strange, IOL, Chattanooga
103 - Kyle Phillips, WR UCLA
114 - Matthew Butler, DI, Tennessee
121 - Cade Otton, TE, Washington
151 - Josh Jobe, CB, Alabama
156 - Tyler Badie, RB, Missouri
184, Zachary Thomas, OT, San Diego State

Well, that's my take.  I truly think we should be trading back to garner more capital.  The trades I made, doubled the top 3 picks from 3 to 6.  We only had 1 pick in the middle rounds (4-5) and end up with 4.  Finally, we junked the 4 late round picks (6-7) and only had 1.

Thanks for reading.

If Gardner or Stingley are available at 12, then by all means, we take them.  However, if they are not, we don't need to reach or select a day one starter.  We have options and there has been reports that we are in talks with KC.  Here's how I see that possibly going down.

To make sure the trades are even and therefore realistic, I am using the Rich Hill draft point system that's on drafttek.com.

We start this draft with 13th most draft points.  We have the following picks (by round):
1, 2, 3, 5, 6(3 picks), & 7

Vikings trade to KC the following picks:
12, 191, 192, 250, & a 5th round in 2023.
Total points equals 368-376

KC trades to the Vikings the following picks:
30, 50, 103, & 121.
Total points equals 371 points

KC currently has 12 picks.  They are looking to replace Hill with a top pick WR.  In turn, the Vikings keep a 1st round pick while picking up another 2nd, another 3rd, and a 4th.

AFTER this first trade, we have the following picks:
1, 2(2), 3(2), 4, 5, & 6

BUT WE'RE NOT DONE

Atlanta still might be looking for a QB.  SO we trade with them to garner more capital.

Vikings trade to Atlanta the following picks:
30 
Total points equals 196 points.

Atlanta trades to the Vikings the following picks:
58, 74, 114, & 151
Total points equals 196 points.

AFTER this second trade, we have the following picks:
2(3), 3(3), 4(2), 5(2), & 6.  11 picks all together.

SO HOW DOES THIS IMPACT THE DRAFT:

Using nflmockdraftdatabase.com, I was able to make the following selections:
46 - Jalen Pitre, Safety, Baylor
50 - Perrion Winfrey, DL, Oklahoma
58 - Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
74 - Marcus Jones, CB, Houston
77 - Cole Strange, IOL, Chattanooga
103 - Jeremy Ruckert, TE, Ohio State
114 - James Cook, RB, Georgia
121 - Danny Gray, WR, SMU
151 - Alex Wright, EDGE, UAB
156 - Matt Waletzko, OT, North Dakota
184 - Kalon Barnes, CB, Baylor

At least one player from each position except QB and special teams.  I wanted the WR Watson and if he was there, my draft would have been slightly different.

Oh just for fun - with the 12th pick, KC took WR London from USC.
with the 30th pick, Atlanta took EDGE Ojabo from Michigan

For fun, I just took a moment to mock draft PFF.com.  Here's what I came up with:
46 - Jalen Pitre, Safety, Baylor
50 - Leo Chenal, LB, Wisconsin
58 - Kingsley Enagbare, EDGE, South Carolina
74 - Marcus Jones, CB, Houston
77 - Cole Strange, IOL, Chattanooga
103 - Kyle Phillips, WR UCLA
114 - Matthew Butler, DI, Tennessee
121 - Cade Otton, TE, Washington
151 - Josh Jobe, CB, Alabama
156 - Tyler Badie, RB, Missouri
184, Zachary Thomas, OT, San Diego State

Well, that's my take.  I truly think we should be trading back to garner more capital.  The trades I made, doubled the top 3 picks from 3 to 6.  We only had 1 pick in the middle rounds (4-5) and end up with 4.  Finally, we junked the 4 late round picks (6-7) and only had 1.

Thanks for reading.




Your post made entertaining reading.  I'm sure you realize the chance of either of those trades happening are pretty slim and none.  You aren't going to see a five pick for four pick trade between KC and MIN for KC to move up to #12.  Trades involving the #1 overall pick see ridiculous numbers of picks being moved, trades for the #12 pick don't.  What you might (but I doubt) see is KC trading #29 and #30 for #12, but I suspect KC would rather keep two firsts for that fifth-year option.  Not to mention, why in heck would KC want 12 picks?  They are already a SB contender/favorite, it's not like they have tons of holes to fill.  They would probably rather keep their five picks in the top 121 rather than trade them for a #12 and and a bunch of picks at #191 or later.  Unless of course, Rick Spielman just became their GM...

Secondly, while Atlanta admittedly may want to take a QB in the 2nd round if they passed on one in the first (especially since this draft class lacks true 1st round QB talent, so why overpay), they only have eight total picks in this draft.  They aren't about to trade four of those eight for the #30 pick, leaving them with only five total picks.  My suspicion is that if they pass in the 1st, they won't try to move into the 1st to get the fifth-year option on any of these guys (unless Willis has fallen that far).  If they strike gold with a 2nd round QB, they can work to extend him before that fourth season ends.  I can see them possibly moving up in the 2nd to get their guy, but at a much more reasonable cost than you are offering.  However, if the Vikings did acquire the #30 from KC and were in a mood to deal it to ATL, I think you are looking at a much more reasonable cost to ATL....#43 and next year's 2nd (future year picks valued at one round lower, so value like a 2022 3rd rounder).

So with all that said, after years of wearing the purple blinders and trusting The Great Rick that he knew what he was doing trading down, down, down for more late round picks, I'm tired of not taking the best player we can.  There will be cases where trading down will make plenty of sense, but the quality of player at #43 will be nowhere near what we are likely to get at #12.  I can maybe even make a case for trading up, but I don't know that we have the ammo to do so.

What about for #29 and #30?