Post by MidwinterViking on Apr 8, 2022 7:52:42 GMT -6
MWV: Hello to all and welcome to draft day! The best day of the year! I'm MidwinterViking and I'd like to introduce my co-contributor dauntessmallhands .
DSH: You know it's not actually draft day.
MWV: Everyday is draft day! Actual, fantasy, beer or in today's case mock. You know what mock means. Like when I mock you for texting me on the day we drafted Laquon Treadwell that we got the next Chris Carter.
DSH: I meant Nell Carter. I blame autocorrect.
MWV: Gimme a break.
DSH: Nice one. Can we get started please.
MWV: Absolutely. Since the Vikings are new and improved, this draft will require the usual collaboration, communication, consensus, casual chit chat, conference calls, and Cheetoes.
DSH: So I take it your choice for the Vikings this year is Charles Cross.
MWV: Why would you think that?
DSH: Never mind
MWV: He's not even going to be available. And we already have two really good tackles.
DSH: Anyway. How do we even know who's going to be available?
MWV: Excellent question! I performed a rigorous assessment of all the team ahead of the Vikings and plugged it into a simulation model that I built in order to determine the most likely pick based on historical trends, player traits, positional value and team needs. I hope our listeners can appreciate the extensive time and effort that was necessary for this.
DSH: You copied a mock draft from CBS Sports didn't you?
MWV: Pretty much. How'd you know it was CBS Sports?
DSH: Lucky guess. Who's the first pick?
MWV: The Jags select #1- Adian Hutchinson - Edge from Michigan
DSH: No surprise there.
MWV: Agreed.
MWV: Pick two. Detroit takes #2 - Travon Walker - Edge from Georgia.
DSH: Interesting. A bit earlier than I expected. I was hoping they'd take a receiver or mediocre tight end for nostalgia's sake.
MWV: Fast riser. He’s moving up like George Jetson.
DSH: I think we should stop referencing 40 year old cartoons?
MWV: You can have my obscure cartoon references when you pry them from Homer’s fat, muumuu clad hand. Pick #3 - Sauce Gardner - Cornerback to the Texans from Cincinnati.
DSH: Damn! I guess my fake twitter rumor about him buying a house in Minneapolis didn't work.
MWV: Yah. I think we were all hoping against hope we'd have a shot at him. Moving on. Pick #4 - Ickey Ekwonu - Offensive Tackle. NC state.
DSH: Good. Bring on the OT's and QB's.
MWV: Then you'll be good with the next couple picks. At #5 - Evan Neal Offensive Tackle - to the Giants from Alabama
DSH: Ok. I like where this is going.
MWV: Pick #6 - Kenny Pickett - Quarterback. From Pitt to the panthers.
DSH: No way. Over Willis?
MWV: He's the most “pro ready”, so at least he sees it coming. And you know, Panther to Panther. It makes sense.
DSH: Well, we figured someone was going to reach for a QB but I certainly didn't expect it to be Pickett.
MWV: #7 - Kayvon Thibodeaux - Edge to the Giants from Oregon.
DSH: Another guy I was hoping would slip but knew he wouldn't. His recent comments turned me off a bit though.
MWV: Yep. Would have been a nice fit in the 3-4 by all accounts. Atlanta has Pick #8 - Garrett Wilson - Wide Receiver - from OSU. Bummer.
DSH: Why? We've got receiver covered.
MWV: For now. And have you heard of the term positional value? Receivers are getting paid right now. How about another JJ on a rookie contract? And, if the Vikings are looking at receivers, I like the one who is best at creating space. Jefferson wasn’t the fastest but his ability to get open is what makes him great.
DSH: Good point. Still lots of good names left
MWV: Seahawks at #9 - Charles Cross - OT from Miss State.
DSH: I can live with that. Surprised they didn't go with Willis. I bet they do in real life.
MWV: What good is this mock without a top quarterbacks being available to the Vikings? Readers wanted to go just one post without devolving into a shouting match about quarterback; well tough luck, you don’t get what you want, you’re Vikings fans.
DSH: I see you.
MWV: Number ten pick of Drake London goes to the Jets. Wide out from USC.
DSH: Makes sense. Looks like your dream of another WR for the Vikings won't happen till day 2 or 3.
MWV: We'll see. The eleventh pick to the Commanders. #11 - Kyle Hamilton - Safety. Notre Dame
DSH: If he goes that low, I think we should consider trading up a spot to get him. I know he'd be a bit a luxury at this point, but he's been arguably considered the best player in this draft. He was probably my last 'run to the podium' guy with Gardner and Thibodeaux gone.
MVW: I'll add him as an option if we give up our 3rd and get back a 5th.
DSH: But I've still got a 'brisk walk to the podium' guy: Jermain Johnson, edge from FSU. I like him a lot. And a great fit for the 3-4.
MWV: You stole that narrative from smart people on the board.
DSH: Maybe. So I guess we're done?
MWV: Let me check. Nope! My word counter isn't even close to target yet. What about CB's? Stingley and McDuffie are still on the board.
DSH: Taking a corner in the 1st kinda gives me PTSD. Stingley seems like either a home run or a bust and McDuffie is like the complete opposite, probably pretty good but not all that sexy.
MWV: I’ve never minded corners in round 1. It is one of the most difficult positions to play, there are usually three of them on the field and the impact of them being beaten is huge. I might be in the minority but I’m starting to like the idea of McDuffie over Stingley; I’d be happy with either but maybe the tie goes to the guy whose reputation is based on being skilled and professional.
DSH: How about Jordan Davis? Dude was a beast at the combine?
MWV: I’m always a huge fan of the big guys who can hold the middle, Davis would get me over the missed opportunity that was Michael Pierce, but will he be out there every down? We need a stud. Not some rotational guy. How about Linderbaum?
DSH: Another center in the first round? Are you serious. I really think you're goal is just to get me triggered.
MWV: Guilty there. I did write an entire piece on why I wouldn’t use big resources on a Center. Bradbury in the 2022 offseason So if the Vikings do drop the Linder-baum on us, he better be an all pro. Let’s go back to the idea of a receiver.
DSH: I liked that idea much better when Wilson or maybe even London were available. If we're talking Jameson Williams or Chris Olave now, then we need to discuss trading down.
MWV: Jameson Williams, pictured here:
MWV: I like Olave more than Williams if those are the only choices, but I think trading down is fair consideration at this point. But not so far that we miss out on one of the players we've discussed. And we haven't even talked about the best linebacker in the draft.
DSH: Of course. Devin Lloyd. He's no Micah Parsons.
MWV: Yah but he’s not just an inanimate carbon rod either, and he’s one of the only guys who could step on the field and play every snap for the next 10 years. He could be a guy someone else thinks is special and is willing to give us a second where we move down and still get a really good player?
DSH: The Eagles. The Saints. The Ravens. The Chargers. Even the Steelers maybe? There's players there that they might covet.
MWV: I don’t know if the Saints are done yet, that move feels like they want a valuable piece for a draft day trade. If we do trade we won't want to get too far down. Johnson, Stingley, McDuffie, Davis, Linderbaum, Williams, Olave, and Lloyd. Trade down and get one of the top three on that list while picking up a additional 3rd? All day. Let’s lay out some options from the Draftek Trade Value Chart (Rich Hill Model) Draftek Pick Values
Ravens: #14 + #128 in the 4th
Eagles: #15 + #124 in the 4th
Chargers: #17 + #79 in the 3rd
Saints: #19 + #98 in the 3rd + #120 in the 4th
Steelers: #20 + a 2023 2nd
DSH: All players that could provide value and potentially at positions of need for now and in the near future. I still think they're running to the podium for Stingley or Johnson though.
MWV: They're gonna have a good deal of options whether they stay at 12 or trade down.
DSH. True, but you left an important player off your list.
MWV: Nope, I think we’ve covered every position where we have any kind of need.
DSH: Don't you think that Vikings fans deserve a discussion about our potential quarterback of the future sitting right there?
MWV: Nah, I don’t think anyone is thinking about quarterback anymore since we extended Cousins, I can’t imagine Willis will even come up in the comments. So Live From New York, it’s Saturday night!
DSH: You know, the NFL moved the draft to … never mind.
DSH: You know it's not actually draft day.
MWV: Everyday is draft day! Actual, fantasy, beer or in today's case mock. You know what mock means. Like when I mock you for texting me on the day we drafted Laquon Treadwell that we got the next Chris Carter.
DSH: I meant Nell Carter. I blame autocorrect.
MWV: Gimme a break.
DSH: Nice one. Can we get started please.
MWV: Absolutely. Since the Vikings are new and improved, this draft will require the usual collaboration, communication, consensus, casual chit chat, conference calls, and Cheetoes.
DSH: So I take it your choice for the Vikings this year is Charles Cross.
MWV: Why would you think that?
DSH: Never mind
MWV: He's not even going to be available. And we already have two really good tackles.
DSH: Anyway. How do we even know who's going to be available?
MWV: Excellent question! I performed a rigorous assessment of all the team ahead of the Vikings and plugged it into a simulation model that I built in order to determine the most likely pick based on historical trends, player traits, positional value and team needs. I hope our listeners can appreciate the extensive time and effort that was necessary for this.
DSH: You copied a mock draft from CBS Sports didn't you?
MWV: Pretty much. How'd you know it was CBS Sports?
DSH: Lucky guess. Who's the first pick?
MWV: The Jags select #1- Adian Hutchinson - Edge from Michigan
DSH: No surprise there.
MWV: Agreed.
MWV: Pick two. Detroit takes #2 - Travon Walker - Edge from Georgia.
DSH: Interesting. A bit earlier than I expected. I was hoping they'd take a receiver or mediocre tight end for nostalgia's sake.
MWV: Fast riser. He’s moving up like George Jetson.
DSH: I think we should stop referencing 40 year old cartoons?
MWV: You can have my obscure cartoon references when you pry them from Homer’s fat, muumuu clad hand. Pick #3 - Sauce Gardner - Cornerback to the Texans from Cincinnati.
DSH: Damn! I guess my fake twitter rumor about him buying a house in Minneapolis didn't work.
MWV: Yah. I think we were all hoping against hope we'd have a shot at him. Moving on. Pick #4 - Ickey Ekwonu - Offensive Tackle. NC state.
DSH: Good. Bring on the OT's and QB's.
MWV: Then you'll be good with the next couple picks. At #5 - Evan Neal Offensive Tackle - to the Giants from Alabama
DSH: Ok. I like where this is going.
MWV: Pick #6 - Kenny Pickett - Quarterback. From Pitt to the panthers.
DSH: No way. Over Willis?
MWV: He's the most “pro ready”, so at least he sees it coming. And you know, Panther to Panther. It makes sense.
DSH: Well, we figured someone was going to reach for a QB but I certainly didn't expect it to be Pickett.
MWV: #7 - Kayvon Thibodeaux - Edge to the Giants from Oregon.
DSH: Another guy I was hoping would slip but knew he wouldn't. His recent comments turned me off a bit though.
MWV: Yep. Would have been a nice fit in the 3-4 by all accounts. Atlanta has Pick #8 - Garrett Wilson - Wide Receiver - from OSU. Bummer.
DSH: Why? We've got receiver covered.
MWV: For now. And have you heard of the term positional value? Receivers are getting paid right now. How about another JJ on a rookie contract? And, if the Vikings are looking at receivers, I like the one who is best at creating space. Jefferson wasn’t the fastest but his ability to get open is what makes him great.
DSH: Good point. Still lots of good names left
MWV: Seahawks at #9 - Charles Cross - OT from Miss State.
DSH: I can live with that. Surprised they didn't go with Willis. I bet they do in real life.
MWV: What good is this mock without a top quarterbacks being available to the Vikings? Readers wanted to go just one post without devolving into a shouting match about quarterback; well tough luck, you don’t get what you want, you’re Vikings fans.
DSH: I see you.
MWV: Number ten pick of Drake London goes to the Jets. Wide out from USC.
DSH: Makes sense. Looks like your dream of another WR for the Vikings won't happen till day 2 or 3.
MWV: We'll see. The eleventh pick to the Commanders. #11 - Kyle Hamilton - Safety. Notre Dame
DSH: If he goes that low, I think we should consider trading up a spot to get him. I know he'd be a bit a luxury at this point, but he's been arguably considered the best player in this draft. He was probably my last 'run to the podium' guy with Gardner and Thibodeaux gone.
MVW: I'll add him as an option if we give up our 3rd and get back a 5th.
Kyle Hamilton - Safety
NFL.com Player Comp: Kam Chancelor
NFL.com rating: 6.81/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 1
PFF Player Rank: 2
Tankathon Player Rank: 4
CBS Player Rank: 1
NFL.com Player Comp: Kam Chancelor
NFL.com rating: 6.81/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 1
PFF Player Rank: 2
Tankathon Player Rank: 4
CBS Player Rank: 1
DSH: But I've still got a 'brisk walk to the podium' guy: Jermain Johnson, edge from FSU. I like him a lot. And a great fit for the 3-4.
Jermaine Johnson II - Edge
NFL.com rating: 6.49/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 13
NFL.com Player Comp: Maxxxxxx Crosby
PFF Player Rank: 26
Tankathon Player Rank: 12
CBS Player Rank: 11
NFL.com rating: 6.49/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 13
NFL.com Player Comp: Maxxxxxx Crosby
PFF Player Rank: 26
Tankathon Player Rank: 12
CBS Player Rank: 11
DSH: Maybe. So I guess we're done?
MWV: Let me check. Nope! My word counter isn't even close to target yet. What about CB's? Stingley and McDuffie are still on the board.
Derek Stingley - CB
NFL.com Player Comp: Stephon Gilmore
NFL.com rating: 6.50/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 9
PFF Player Rank: 3
Tankathon Player Rank: 11
CBS Player Rank: 6
NFL.com Player Comp: Stephon Gilmore
NFL.com rating: 6.50/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 9
PFF Player Rank: 3
Tankathon Player Rank: 11
CBS Player Rank: 6
Trent McDuffie - CB
NFL.com Player Comp: Jaire Alexander
NFL.com rating: 6.70/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 7
PFF Player Rank: 8
Tankathon Player Rank: 23
CBS Player Rank: 22
NFL.com Player Comp: Jaire Alexander
NFL.com rating: 6.70/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 7
PFF Player Rank: 8
Tankathon Player Rank: 23
CBS Player Rank: 22
MWV: I’ve never minded corners in round 1. It is one of the most difficult positions to play, there are usually three of them on the field and the impact of them being beaten is huge. I might be in the minority but I’m starting to like the idea of McDuffie over Stingley; I’d be happy with either but maybe the tie goes to the guy whose reputation is based on being skilled and professional.
DSH: How about Jordan Davis? Dude was a beast at the combine?
Jordan Davis - DI
NFL.com Player Comp: Haloti Ngata
NFL.com rating: 6.50/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 11
PFF Player Rank: 20
Tankathon Player Rank: 14
CBS Player Rank: 18
NFL.com Player Comp: Haloti Ngata
NFL.com rating: 6.50/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 11
PFF Player Rank: 20
Tankathon Player Rank: 14
CBS Player Rank: 18
Tyler Linderbaum - C
NFL.com Player Comp: Jason Kelce
NFL.com rating: 6.70/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 8
PFF Player Rank: 19
Tankathon Player Rank: 21
CBS Player Rank: 9
NFL.com Player Comp: Jason Kelce
NFL.com rating: 6.70/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 8
PFF Player Rank: 19
Tankathon Player Rank: 21
CBS Player Rank: 9
MWV: Guilty there. I did write an entire piece on why I wouldn’t use big resources on a Center. Bradbury in the 2022 offseason So if the Vikings do drop the Linder-baum on us, he better be an all pro. Let’s go back to the idea of a receiver.
DSH: I liked that idea much better when Wilson or maybe even London were available. If we're talking Jameson Williams or Chris Olave now, then we need to discuss trading down.
MWV: Jameson Williams, pictured here:
Jameson Williams - WR
NFL.com Player Comp: Will Fuller
NFL.com rating: 6.48/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 14
PFF Player Rank: 16
Tankathon Player Rank: 20
CBS Player Rank: 11
NFL.com Player Comp: Will Fuller
NFL.com rating: 6.48/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 14
PFF Player Rank: 16
Tankathon Player Rank: 20
CBS Player Rank: 11
Chris Olave - WR
NFL.com Player Comp: Terry McLaurin
NFL.com rating: 6.43/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 18
PFF Player Rank: 21
Tankathon Player Rank: 19
CBS Player Rank: 25
NFL.com Player Comp: Terry McLaurin
NFL.com rating: 6.43/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 18
PFF Player Rank: 21
Tankathon Player Rank: 19
CBS Player Rank: 25
DSH: Of course. Devin Lloyd. He's no Micah Parsons.
Devin Lloyd - LB
NFL.com Player Comp: Micha Parsons? No, Willie Gay
NFL.com rating: 6.38/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 30
PFF Player Rank: 15
Tankathon Player Rank: 15
CBS Player Rank: 16
NFL.com Player Comp: Micha Parsons? No, Willie Gay
NFL.com rating: 6.38/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 30
PFF Player Rank: 15
Tankathon Player Rank: 15
CBS Player Rank: 16
DSH: The Eagles. The Saints. The Ravens. The Chargers. Even the Steelers maybe? There's players there that they might covet.
MWV: I don’t know if the Saints are done yet, that move feels like they want a valuable piece for a draft day trade. If we do trade we won't want to get too far down. Johnson, Stingley, McDuffie, Davis, Linderbaum, Williams, Olave, and Lloyd. Trade down and get one of the top three on that list while picking up a additional 3rd? All day. Let’s lay out some options from the Draftek Trade Value Chart (Rich Hill Model) Draftek Pick Values
Ravens: #14 + #128 in the 4th
Eagles: #15 + #124 in the 4th
Chargers: #17 + #79 in the 3rd
Saints: #19 + #98 in the 3rd + #120 in the 4th
Steelers: #20 + a 2023 2nd
DSH: All players that could provide value and potentially at positions of need for now and in the near future. I still think they're running to the podium for Stingley or Johnson though.
MWV: They're gonna have a good deal of options whether they stay at 12 or trade down.
DSH. True, but you left an important player off your list.
MWV: Nope, I think we’ve covered every position where we have any kind of need.
DSH: Don't you think that Vikings fans deserve a discussion about our potential quarterback of the future sitting right there?
Malik Willis - QB
NFL.com Player Comp: Jay Cutler + Jalen Hurts
NFL.com rating: 6.41/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 19
PFF Player Rank: 25
Tankathon Player Rank: 10
CBS Player Rank: 23
NFL.com Player Comp: Jay Cutler + Jalen Hurts
NFL.com rating: 6.41/8
NFL.com Overall Player Rank: 19
PFF Player Rank: 25
Tankathon Player Rank: 10
CBS Player Rank: 23
DSH: You know, the NFL moved the draft to … never mind.