The Official Farewell to Justin Jefferson Thread

Playing and succeeding against press coverage is one of the biggest challenges for NFL receivers, and often the biggest thing separating otherwise excellent prospects at draft time.

The ability to defeat press coverage regularly is the difference between a player who can make an entire receiving corps function and a player who will need a role carved out for them and a foil to enable them to thrive.

To understand which NFL receivers are the best at beating press coverage right now, we’ll dive into the PFF database, which records press coverage both on a team level as well as on an individual basis.

Looking at the past two seasons combined, here are the best receivers in the league ranked by various categories.


PFF GRADE
RANK PLAYER TEAM PFF Grade TGTs RECs YPRR
1 Justin Jefferson Vikings 93.0 109 72 3.27
2 Davante Adams Packers 92.3 122 84 2.9
3 Cooper Kupp Rams 90.8 71 51 3.33
4 A.J. Brown Titans 90.4 75 46 2.73
4 Stefon Diggs Bills 90.4 141 83 2.33
6 Tyler Lockett Seahawks 89.9 51 32 2.47
7 DeAndre Hopkins Cardinals 88.4 65 43 2.14
8 Adam Thielen Vikings 86.9 60 40 1.95
9 D.K. Metcalf Seahawks 86.5 78 45 2.46
10 Will Fuller V Dolphins 86.3 35 24 3.1

Let's start with one player who just missed out: The Atlanta Falcons’ Kyle Pitts. Nominally a tight end, Pitts was such a unicorn as a prospect because of the belief that he could line up as a true X receiver and defeat press coverage. At least through one NFL season, that’s being borne out. Pitts ranked 11th in PFF grade against press coverage, averaging 2.99 yards per route run — a figure that could have been even better but for a pair of dropped passes. Pitts may be every bit that unicorn player.

No receiver has been better against press coverage than the Minnesota Vikings’ Justin Jefferson, who boasts the highest PFF grade and has caught 72 of the 109 targets thrown his way against press coverage since entering the league. That’s notable in part because prospective teams weren’t sure if Jefferson could thrive on the outside, leading him to be the fifth wideout drafted in 2020. He was coming off a college season in which he dominated from the slot, but how a receiver fares on the outside against press coverage is what largely determines their NFL ceiling and whether they can be that No. 1 threat in an offense.

Sometimes you see that on tape, but other times more projection is required. Jefferson leads an all-star group of receivers, with Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp next on the list.

Kupp is a notable name because of how much he plays from the slot. He doesn’t face nearly as much press coverage as some other elite receivers (70 fewer targets against press than Stefon Diggs over the past two seasons), but he torches it in those instances. Kupp’s 3.33 yards per route run against press is the best mark in the NFL over that span.

Tyler Lockett once again proves that this skill set is not necessarily driven by size or imposing physical tools, and his PFF grade is narrowly ahead of his teammate D.K. Metcalf despite paling in comparison in terms of size and physicality.


YARDS PER ROUTE RUN
RANK PLAYER TEAM PFF GRADE TGTs RECs YPRR
1 Cooper Kupp Rams 90.8 71 51 3.33
2 Justin Jefferson Vikings 93.0 109 72 3.27
3 Will Fuller V Dolphins 86.3 35 24 3.1
4 Kyle Pitts Falcons 85.5 36 19 2.99
5 Davante Adams Packers 92.3 122 84 2.9
6 A.J. Brown Titans 90.4 75 46 2.73
7 Ja'Marr Chase Bengals 84.4 59 36 2.62
8 Mark Andrews Ravens 82.9 37 27 2.55
9 Antonio Brown Buccaneers 84.1 36 26 2.5
10 Tyler Lockett Seahawks 89.9 51 32 2.47

Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson are the two most productive receivers in the league against press coverage over the past two seasons in terms of yards per route run, but Will Fuller is the major standout here, showing why he continues to be coveted despite all of his injuries. Fuller can take the top off a defense as a deep threat and also defeat press coverage to make that happen. He is an extremely dangerous receiver with that combination, just one who can’t stay on the field.

Kyle Pitts has been more productive than most elite receivers in the league against press coverage, albeit on a much smaller sample size after just his rookie year. Pitts has elite wide receiver traits as well as the ability to play tight end, and that makes him a truly unique prospect in the NFL.

Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase is the second player to appear on this list after their rookie season. Chase’s impact on the Bengals' offense was obvious, and his ability to destroy even elite coverage was evident throughout the 2021 season. Teams lined up against him in press coverage quite often but were typically made to pay for that aggression.

Antonio Brown also appearing on the list shows why he continues to have an impact on any offense he’s a part of, at least until the seemingly inevitable implosion and messy divorce.

TOUCHDOWN RATE
NAME TEAM PFF GRADE PRESS SNAPS REC TD TD RATE
Adam Thielen Vikings 86.9 265 13 4.9
Tyler Lockett Seahawks 89.9 257 11 4.3
Tyreek Hill Chiefs 83 358 13 3.6
Mike Evans Buccaneers 77.5 533 18 3.4
Davante Adams Packers 92.3 423 14 3.3
Antonio Brown Buccaneers 84.1 155 5 3.2
Hunter Henry Patriots 64.2 166 5 3
Cooper Kupp Rams 90.8 250 7 2.8
Darren Waller Raiders 81.3 147 4 2.7
A.J. Brown Titans 90.4 264 7 2.7
Adam Thielen is a touchdown machine — a player with a disproportionate volume of scores relative to his target share within the Vikings' offense — and that trend continues against press coverage, where he has the best touchdown rate as either a percentage of targets or as a rate relative to snaps against press coverage.

Thielen has five fewer scores over the past two seasons than Mike Evans, but given how much less he sees press coverage, his scoring rate is significantly higher — and by far the highest in the league.

7. JUSTIN JEFFERSON, MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The big concern with Jefferson coming out of LSU in 2020 was his ability to effectively defeat press-man coverage on the outside. After two years in the league, it’s safe to say that’s no longer a concern, and even that it's now the 6-foot-1, 202-pound wide receiver’s greatest strength — only Davante Adams has produced a higher grade against press-man coverage since 2020.

Jefferson has been incredibly productive against press-man, averaging 3.55 yards per route run (second) and 21 explosive receptions of 15 or more yards (tied for first). He’s the definition of a big-play threat and someone who could rise into Tier 1 to dethrone some of the veterans up top.

19. ADAM THIELEN, MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Thielen has already endured several up-and-down swings throughout his NFL career and will be eyeing another bounce-back in 2022. The Minnesota Viking was a top-five-graded wide receiver in 2018, but injury played a part in a double-digit grading swing downward in 2019 after his limited time on the field. Thielen came back to form in 2020 with the sixth-highest PFF grade but took another tumble in grading in 2021, some of which can be attributed to injury down the stretch. When Thielen is healthy, his advanced route running makes him a clear Tier 1 player.

Justin Jefferson is the first player in NFL history to combine for over 3,000 receiving yards across his first two seasons. He’s undoubtedly in the conversation as one of the top receivers in the NFL, a position rich in star power, and he’s only 22. With two second-team All-Pro credits to his name, he is near the top of the list whenever the best in the game are discussed.

Although he’s taken the league by storm since his very first start back in Week 3 of 2020, he still has a few names to cross off his list before being anointed the Best Receiver in the Game.

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Of the 29 players who received at least 115 targets last season, Jefferson had the ninth-highest passer rating when targeted with 113.9. Kupp predictably led the league with a rating of 129.7, with Chase and Adams finishing fourth and fifth with ratings of 117.1 and 116.6, respectively.

While the numbers are certainly important for all the players involved in this discussion, we can’t dismiss the most important component whenever this particular subject is broached: winning.

Every single player on this list — outside of Jefferson — has made big-time plays on the game’s biggest stages.

With Kevin O’Connell‘s arrival, the expectations for Jefferson’s Vikings are firmly set at Playoffs or Bust. The former Rams’ offensive coordinator should assuredly help Jefferson find more easy looks by allowing him to play in the same system that saw Kupp almost make NFL history last year.

But even if Jefferson not only breaks Randy Moss‘ single-season franchise record for receiving yards but also Calvin Johnson‘s NFL record of 1,964 yards from 2012, it will be difficult to give him the positional championship belt if it doesn’t translate into winning. And, to be perfectly clear, Jefferson can only be responsible for so much.

At the end of the day, is it Jefferson’s fault that he’s played for a team with the league’s 27th-worst defense since he entered the league? Whether it’s right or wrong, winning still plays a huge factor whenever folks find themselves nitpicking between the game’s best. If the defense can take a considerable step forward in O’Connell’s debut season in purple, that should allow Jefferson the opportunity to perform in the playoffs.

If he can see his production grow with the arrival of O’Connell’s system, it’s only a matter of time until Jefferson cements his status as the Best Receiver on the Planet by making big-time plays in big-time games.