Post by MidwinterViking on Mar 23, 2022 12:55:50 GMT -6
No, Davante Adams‘ contract with the Las Vegas Raiders didn't reset the wide receiver market after all — at least, not in the way he was reportedly attempting to over the last 12 months.
The sticking point throughout negotiations was apparently how Adams and the Green Bay Packers chose to define “highest-paid” wide receiver. The benchmark agents and players use to measure themselves against their counterparts is average per year (APY).
The sticking point throughout negotiations was apparently how Adams and the Green Bay Packers chose to define “highest-paid” wide receiver. The benchmark agents and players use to measure themselves against their counterparts is average per year (APY).
Adams does get the largest guarantee figure and strongest three-year cash flow of any wide receiver, but by no means did he truly cement the wide receiver market at the $28 million per year number that puts the position market in the same echelon as edge defenders.
A better way to illustrate this point is to compare Adams’ new deal to other position groups that were recently reset.
Packers tackle David Bakhtiari is included because he’s Adams' former teammate and thus was negotiating with the same counterparts before inking his four-year, $92 million extension.
Looking at the below table, we see how cash flows over the first three years mirror the average per year values of the deal. In essence, a new money cash flow should be in line with the per year average throughout the deal — not some massively backloaded deal that only catches up in later years that likely won’t be played on.
Adams doesn’t come close to the comparable players here, including the aforementioned Bakhtiari, who signed a deal averaging $23 million per year with the Packers. In fact, Bakhtiari is set to earn more in new money over the first three years of his deal than Adams, who reaches the $28 million per year mark on his overall deal with a $35.64 million salary in 2025 and a $35.65 million salary in 2026, when he will be 33 and 34 years old, respectively. The odds he plays these years at these salary figures are close to zero.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN GOING FORWARD?
The two players this deal will impact most immediately are Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill and Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs — two elite players at the position who are presumably looking for extensions this offseason. Both were hoping that Adams truly signed a deal that averaged $28 million per year from Year 1 and on without any complications regarding old money, but as we laid out, that’s not exactly what happened.
If we were negotiating on the Chiefs or Bills' behalf, we would attempt to set a true cap at $22.5 million per year, which is what Adams will earn over his first three years — even if there are later years that artificially inflate the per year average closer to the $28 million number. Hill is one-and-a-half years younger than Adams, and Diggs is one year younger, so there’s not much of a difference from that perspective.
The next group of players this will impact is the 2019 wide receiver draft class — the San Francisco 49ers’ Deebo Samuel, Tennessee Titans’ A.J. Brown, Seattle Seahawks’ D.K. Metcalf and Washington Commanders‘ Terry McLaurin, among others. They’re all eligible for early extensions this offseason, and with 2018 first-round wide receiver D.J. Moore agreeing to a reported three-year, $61.884 million extension with the Carolina Panthers, the whole group could push to join the $20M-plus per-year club. However, it doesn’t look like there will be deals doled out with legitimate per-year averages in the $25-$30 million range at wide receiver just yet.
Minnesota Vikings star sophomore wideout Justin Jefferson and Cincinnati Bengals star rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase may be the players who truly reset the position market to new heights when they’re eligible for extensions over the next few offseasons.
Until then, edge defenders and left tackles remain the premium positions that teams are willing to pay more than the rest outside of quarterback — same as it ever was.
A better way to illustrate this point is to compare Adams’ new deal to other position groups that were recently reset.
Packers tackle David Bakhtiari is included because he’s Adams' former teammate and thus was negotiating with the same counterparts before inking his four-year, $92 million extension.
Looking at the below table, we see how cash flows over the first three years mirror the average per year values of the deal. In essence, a new money cash flow should be in line with the per year average throughout the deal — not some massively backloaded deal that only catches up in later years that likely won’t be played on.
Player Position APY 3-year cash flow 3-year cash flow as % of APYx3
Ramsey CB $20M $62,000,000 ($62M / $60M) = 103%
Bakhtiari LT $23M $70,500,001 ($70.5M / $69M) = 102%
Watt ED $28.002M $90,961,000 ($90.9M / $84M) = 108%
Leonard LB $19.7M $59,250,000 ($59.25M / $59.1M) = 100.2%
Adams WR $28M $67,510,000 ($67.5M / $84M) = 80%Adams doesn’t come close to the comparable players here, including the aforementioned Bakhtiari, who signed a deal averaging $23 million per year with the Packers. In fact, Bakhtiari is set to earn more in new money over the first three years of his deal than Adams, who reaches the $28 million per year mark on his overall deal with a $35.64 million salary in 2025 and a $35.65 million salary in 2026, when he will be 33 and 34 years old, respectively. The odds he plays these years at these salary figures are close to zero.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN GOING FORWARD?
The two players this deal will impact most immediately are Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill and Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs — two elite players at the position who are presumably looking for extensions this offseason. Both were hoping that Adams truly signed a deal that averaged $28 million per year from Year 1 and on without any complications regarding old money, but as we laid out, that’s not exactly what happened.
If we were negotiating on the Chiefs or Bills' behalf, we would attempt to set a true cap at $22.5 million per year, which is what Adams will earn over his first three years — even if there are later years that artificially inflate the per year average closer to the $28 million number. Hill is one-and-a-half years younger than Adams, and Diggs is one year younger, so there’s not much of a difference from that perspective.
The next group of players this will impact is the 2019 wide receiver draft class — the San Francisco 49ers’ Deebo Samuel, Tennessee Titans’ A.J. Brown, Seattle Seahawks’ D.K. Metcalf and Washington Commanders‘ Terry McLaurin, among others. They’re all eligible for early extensions this offseason, and with 2018 first-round wide receiver D.J. Moore agreeing to a reported three-year, $61.884 million extension with the Carolina Panthers, the whole group could push to join the $20M-plus per-year club. However, it doesn’t look like there will be deals doled out with legitimate per-year averages in the $25-$30 million range at wide receiver just yet.
Minnesota Vikings star sophomore wideout Justin Jefferson and Cincinnati Bengals star rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase may be the players who truly reset the position market to new heights when they’re eligible for extensions over the next few offseasons.
Until then, edge defenders and left tackles remain the premium positions that teams are willing to pay more than the rest outside of quarterback — same as it ever was.
www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-nfl-free-agency-did-davante-adams-reset-the-wide-receiver-market-after-all
If Tyreek Hill is getting $120M / 4 years, in 2 more years Jefferson might be getting $35M per year.
Tyreek Hill is a really interesting case, he has more natural speed than most players so he can do things other WRs simply can't. The presence of his speed on the field can change a defense. And he gets to play with one of the best QBs in the league under a pass happy coach. But with all that... shouldn't he at least be able to tie Justin Jefferson in terms of 1400 yard seasons (2 vs 1) or yards per catch (15.4 vs 13.8)?
... and neither is this Chris guy.