2019 Draft

Members of the 2019 NFL Draft class: It’s evaluation day!

A three-season resume is widely considered the baseline for when NFL teams can begin to accurately evaluate the hits or misses in a draft class. With that in mind, I dove in for another one of my draft audits, using Pro Football Reference’s “Approximate Value” to judge the success or lack thereof of each team’s 2019 class.

Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray may want to thank me for the convenient timing of this article, given that he’s looking for a contract extension. Murray led the 2019 class in AV, by a lot. Murray’s 44 weighted AV was 12 points higher than Buccaneers linebacker Devin White and 14 points higher than Titans wideout A.J. Brown.

In AV terms, Murray’s first three-year value landed him among the top 12 to 18 players since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970. Those with the same first-three-year values are Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Emmitt Smith, Derrick Thomas, J.J. Watt and Ricky Watters.

That said, while Murray’s AV placed him in the all-time top 20 list, the rest of the class didn’t pack as much top-flight punch as some of the previous ones.

Since 1970, there are 200 players with a first-three-year AV of 30 or higher. The 2019 class possessed only three of them: Murray, White and Brown. By comparison, both the 2017 and ’18 draft classes had nine players each within the top 200.

As for the values themselves, they don’t take into account where a player was drafted. It’s simply about the value of their on-field play over the past three seasons (regular season only). Certain positions are valued higher than others within the system, and availability is also a determining factor.

Teams below are listed by their overall weighted draft AV.

This can sometimes help teams with quantity over quality, yet it can also benefit a team’s “ranking” if it struck gold with one player. For example, Murray’s AV alone is 44, but the Bills drafted three quality players in Ed Oliver, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox, who have a combined 55 AV. Murray’s Cardinals classmates from the 2019 draft haven’t been as collectively productive as those Bills players, but Murray’s value propelled Arizona higher in the rankings.

I’ve added something for this year’s three-season audit: rankings based on AVs for Rounds 1-3 and Rounds 4-7, which better indicates which teams found draft gems on Day 3.

I’ve read and listened to the pluses and minuses of using AV as a gauge to judge players. It’s not perfect. I get that. For me, though, it seems like a fair way to evaluate since every player receives a value, from quarterbacks and offensive linemen to linebackers and kickers.

Release the hounds! Thus far, the top 2019 draft class has been the …

The Vikings are the fourth team in the top 10 in total draft AV in this study who have moved on to a new general manager (I’m counting Ron Rivera in the “new GM” category with Washington). In 2018, only tackle Brian O’Neill (23) compiled a three-year draft AV for the Vikings higher than “5.” Combine that class with this class and it’s no wonder Minnesota started to slip.

Offensive linemen Garrett Bradbury has been OK at center as a three-year starter, however, and running back Alexander Mattison has tallied 330 carries for 1,387 yards and eight total TDs as the No. 2 back behind Dalvin Cook.

Here’s a case of quantity not leading to quality.