[OC] Season in Review: Hunter’s Impact
Feb 18, 2022 7:47:40 GMT -6
Reignman, Funkytown, and 6 more like this
Post by whoskmoon on Feb 18, 2022 7:47:40 GMT -6
The Vikings have a lot of decisions to make this off season and one of the biggest is what to do with the best player on their defense: Danielle Hunter. The former all pro has been hurt most of the last two seasons, leaving a huge hole that no other DE on the team has been able to fill, and I am not sure people realize just how big of an impact that has had on this team.
This post, as you may have guessed from the title, will dive into that impact, as well as look at just how bad our current options on the roster were when the Vikings tried to replace him.
The Macro
There is no question football is a team game, and that no individual player can make a terrible defense into a great one. Hunter came about as close as a defensive player can to doing just that in 2021 though.
At the point in time Hunter went out, the Vikings D looked like this:
With how maligned the D was this season, it might really surprise some people that we were top 8 through 7 games, but I think that a lot of the negative opinions on the D are based on the final 10 weeks, when Hunter was out:
From top 8 in scoring and yards to bottom 10 in yards and bottom 11 in scoring, it is clear the defense fell off significantly once Hunter went down. That is a significant drop that can’t be explained away with opponent or small sample size skewing the data. Seven and ten games are big chunks of the season, and while most of the better offenses we faced were in those last 10 games of the season (GB X 2, LAC, LAR), we also faced some of the worst during those games (Detroit, Chicago X 2, Pitt).
Going beyond just the 2021 season, and we see a trend between how much Hunter played, and how good Zimmer’s defenses were. Note: I switched to using DVOA here because it is a better measure of how good a D is than PPD and YPD. I only used those stats for the 2021 seasons because I don’t know what we were at for DVOA in week 8.
2014: 0 snaps DVOA: 23rd
2015: 420 snaps DVOA: 14th
2016: 602 snaps DVOA: 7th
2017: 873 snaps DVOA: 1st
2018: 879 snaps DVOA: 3rd
2019: 993 snaps DVOA: 4th
2020: 0 snaps DVOA: 18th
2021: 384 snaps DVOA: 16th
When Hunter has been a fulltime starter, the Vikings have never been outside the top 5 in defense. When he has played less than halftime as a starter, they have never been top 10.
There are other factors going into the rise and fall in those rankings obviously, but it is tough to look at those numbers and not come away seeing a pattern of regression/improvement when Hunter isn’t/ is playing a significant number of snaps. So while it is possible we would have gone from the 14th best D to the 7th best without Hunter playing a lot more snaps in 2016, based on who else we added that season it seems unlikely.
The Micro
So how did Hunter, as one player, impact the D that much this past season and what are the numbers that show the guys who replaced him in the lineup weren’t having the same impact?
Looking at 2021 season, the Vikings were not terrible at getting after the passer even after Hunter went down
Average pressures per game first 7 games: 16.7
Average sacks per game first 7 games: 3.57
Average pressures per game last 10 games: 16.1
Average sacks per game last 10 games: 3.1
Not a huge difference, but a notable difference that is even more significant when you take out the Chicago game where Fields padded the Vikings’ pass rushing stats considerably.
However, when you take safeties, LBers, and CBs out of the mix:
Average pressures per game first 7 games: 14.1
Average sacks per game first 7 games: 2.4
Average pressures per game last 10 games: 11.5
Average sacks per game last 10 games: 2
Turns out the Vikings were generating a lot more of their pressures once Hunter went down via the blitz. We blitzed more, got more pressures, but at the cost of being less effective against the run and pass when those blitzes didn’t get home. It completely changed how we played defense and helps explain why teams started scoring on us in bunches.
To put those numbers in context, QBs throw about 35 pass attempts per game on average, and a QB getting pressured on 14 of those attempts would have a pressure rate of 40%, the 2nd highest in the NFL. A QB getting pressured on 11 attempts per 35 drop backs would have been pressured the 21st most. Or in other words, when Hunter was in the game, the Vikings Dline was making every QB feel like they were playing behind Justin Fields’ Oline on average, and when he wasn’t, it was like they were playing behind Dallas’s Oline.
Summary
Hunter is clearly an impact player and has been since he entered the NFL. Without him in the lineup the Vikings have one of the worst pass rushing Dlines in the NFL and will not be able to generate pressure with the 4 other guys currently on the roster. If the Vikings decide to move on, they need to go all in on getting 2 competent edge rushers who can step in right away or expect another season where QBs have all day to throw and pick apart our weak secondary.
Other reviews:
Wonnom's Lack of Impact
Darrisaw's Impact
This post, as you may have guessed from the title, will dive into that impact, as well as look at just how bad our current options on the roster were when the Vikings tried to replace him.
The Macro
There is no question football is a team game, and that no individual player can make a terrible defense into a great one. Hunter came about as close as a defensive player can to doing just that in 2021 though.
At the point in time Hunter went out, the Vikings D looked like this:
| Team | Drives | Yds/Dr Rank | Yds/Dr | Pts/Dr Rank | Pts/Dr | TO/Dr Rank | TO/Dr | INT/Dr Rank | INT/Dr | FUM/Dr Rank | FUM/Dr | LOS/Dr Rank | LOS/Dr | Plays/Dr Rank | Plays/Dr | TOP/Dr Rank | TOP/Dr | DSR Rank | DSR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 80 | 8 | 32.25 | 8 | 1.88 | 14 | 0.113 | 20 | 0.063 | 12 | 0.05 | 8 | 26.7 | 7 | 5.85 | 8 | 2.4 | 7 | 0.693 |
| NFL | 33.98 | 2.17 | 0.118 | 0.075 | 0.043 | 28.22 | 6.19 | 2.52 | 0.727 | ||||||||||
| Team | Drives | TDs/Dr Rank | TDs/Dr | FG/Dr Rank | FG/Dr | Punts/Dr Rank | Punts/Dr | 3Outs/Dr Rank | 3Outs/Dr | LOS/KO Rank | LOS/KO | TD/FG Rank | TD/FG | Pts/RZ Rank | Pts/RZ | TDs/RZ Rank | TDs/RZ | Avg. Lead Rank | Avg. Lead |
| MIN | 80 | 5 | 0.188 | 26 | 0.175 | 3 | 0.425 | 23 | 0.175 | 12 | 24.47 | 2 | 1.07 | 28 | 5.56 | 25 | 0.688 | 13 | 2.74 |
| NFL | 0.25 | 0.144 | 0.354 | 0.196 | 24.86 | 1.73 | 5.03 | 0.614 | -1.27 |
With how maligned the D was this season, it might really surprise some people that we were top 8 through 7 games, but I think that a lot of the negative opinions on the D are based on the final 10 weeks, when Hunter was out:
| Team | Drives | Yds/Dr Rank | Yds/Dr | Pts/Dr Rank | Pts/Dr | TO/Dr Rank | TO/Dr | INT/Dr Rank | INT/Dr | FUM/Dr Rank | FUM/Dr | LOS/Dr Rank | LOS/Dr | Plays/Dr Rank | Plays/Dr | TOP/Dr Rank | TOP/Dr | DSR Rank | DSR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 189 | 23 | 35.08 | 22 | 2.18 | 14 | 0.122 | 12 | 0.085 | 21 | 0.037 | 10 | 27.66 | 19 | 6.28 | 16 | 2.5 | 20 | 0.729 |
| NFL | 178 | 32.85 | 2.1 | 0.119 | 0.077 | 0.042 | 28.69 | 6.18 | 2.52 | 0.718 | |||||||||
| Team | Drives | TDs/Dr Rank | TDs/Dr | FG/Dr Rank | FG/Dr | Punts/Dr Rank | Punts/Dr | 3Outs/Dr Rank | 3Outs/Dr | LOS/KO Rank | LOS/KO | TD/FG Rank | TD/FG | Pts/RZ Rank | Pts/RZ | TDs/RZ Rank | TDs/RZ | Avg. Lead Rank | Avg. Lead |
| MIN | 189 | 15 | 0.233 | 27 | 0.18 | 24 | 0.339 | 30 | 0.169 | 13 | 24.68 | 9 | 1.29 | 14 | 4.76 | 14 | 0.559 | 14 | 2.63 |
| NFL | 178 | 0.237 | 0.153 | 0.363 | 0.202 | 25.09 | 1.54 | 4.94 | 0.587 | -1.27 |
From top 8 in scoring and yards to bottom 10 in yards and bottom 11 in scoring, it is clear the defense fell off significantly once Hunter went down. That is a significant drop that can’t be explained away with opponent or small sample size skewing the data. Seven and ten games are big chunks of the season, and while most of the better offenses we faced were in those last 10 games of the season (GB X 2, LAC, LAR), we also faced some of the worst during those games (Detroit, Chicago X 2, Pitt).
Going beyond just the 2021 season, and we see a trend between how much Hunter played, and how good Zimmer’s defenses were. Note: I switched to using DVOA here because it is a better measure of how good a D is than PPD and YPD. I only used those stats for the 2021 seasons because I don’t know what we were at for DVOA in week 8.
2014: 0 snaps DVOA: 23rd
2015: 420 snaps DVOA: 14th
2016: 602 snaps DVOA: 7th
2017: 873 snaps DVOA: 1st
2018: 879 snaps DVOA: 3rd
2019: 993 snaps DVOA: 4th
2020: 0 snaps DVOA: 18th
2021: 384 snaps DVOA: 16th
When Hunter has been a fulltime starter, the Vikings have never been outside the top 5 in defense. When he has played less than halftime as a starter, they have never been top 10.
There are other factors going into the rise and fall in those rankings obviously, but it is tough to look at those numbers and not come away seeing a pattern of regression/improvement when Hunter isn’t/ is playing a significant number of snaps. So while it is possible we would have gone from the 14th best D to the 7th best without Hunter playing a lot more snaps in 2016, based on who else we added that season it seems unlikely.
The Micro
So how did Hunter, as one player, impact the D that much this past season and what are the numbers that show the guys who replaced him in the lineup weren’t having the same impact?
Looking at 2021 season, the Vikings were not terrible at getting after the passer even after Hunter went down
Average pressures per game first 7 games: 16.7
Average sacks per game first 7 games: 3.57
Average pressures per game last 10 games: 16.1
Average sacks per game last 10 games: 3.1
Not a huge difference, but a notable difference that is even more significant when you take out the Chicago game where Fields padded the Vikings’ pass rushing stats considerably.
However, when you take safeties, LBers, and CBs out of the mix:
Average pressures per game first 7 games: 14.1
Average sacks per game first 7 games: 2.4
Average pressures per game last 10 games: 11.5
Average sacks per game last 10 games: 2
Turns out the Vikings were generating a lot more of their pressures once Hunter went down via the blitz. We blitzed more, got more pressures, but at the cost of being less effective against the run and pass when those blitzes didn’t get home. It completely changed how we played defense and helps explain why teams started scoring on us in bunches.
To put those numbers in context, QBs throw about 35 pass attempts per game on average, and a QB getting pressured on 14 of those attempts would have a pressure rate of 40%, the 2nd highest in the NFL. A QB getting pressured on 11 attempts per 35 drop backs would have been pressured the 21st most. Or in other words, when Hunter was in the game, the Vikings Dline was making every QB feel like they were playing behind Justin Fields’ Oline on average, and when he wasn’t, it was like they were playing behind Dallas’s Oline.
Summary
Hunter is clearly an impact player and has been since he entered the NFL. Without him in the lineup the Vikings have one of the worst pass rushing Dlines in the NFL and will not be able to generate pressure with the 4 other guys currently on the roster. If the Vikings decide to move on, they need to go all in on getting 2 competent edge rushers who can step in right away or expect another season where QBs have all day to throw and pick apart our weak secondary.
Other reviews:
Wonnom's Lack of Impact
Darrisaw's Impact
... and neither is this Chris guy.