Transitioning to a 3-4 defense?

That's every offseason bro. 

I personally think the new regime will be a shot in arm for a lot of players. Will it bring more wins? I sure hope so! I'm excited as hell for this season!!  

Transitioning to a 3-4 defense feels like one of the biggest risks to the Vikings season; if things are different, will players be standing there thinking about what to do rather than making plays?

I broke down who, out of the 11 starters (plus nickel) will actually have to make a change ranking them from least to biggest change, and what they have to change

Absolutely no change

#12 – CB1: Patrick Peterson- Job stays the same: “Cover that guy across from you”

#11 – CB2: see CB1

#10 – FS: playing safety

#9 – ROLB: ZaDarious Smith, played ROLB in a 3-4 previously, the Vikings Defense is actually changing to what his role was in the past.  Different for the team is not different for Smith.

#8 – ILB2: Jordan Hicks, like ZaDarious, Hicks played this 3-4 ILB role in Arizona. His role should also be what he’s used to.

So little change it’s basically no change

#7: SS: maybe Harrison Smith creeps down into the box more when the Vikings are in Nickel package, but isn’t this what he already does?

#6: CB3 / S3: This will either be a nickel corner doing his coverage thing or the Vikings put a 3rd safety on the field. That 3rd safety might have a different mix of playing in the box vs deep than normal, but not doing anything they wouldn’t already do.

Some change, but I’m not really worried

#5: DT: I’m guessing this will be Harrison Phillips. If he lines up next to Tomlinson, then he might have responsibility for 2 gaps between C/G or G/T. That seems very similar to what he would do as a DT, at least not so different that he’s going to have to learn new skills.

#4: LOLB: Danielle Hunter - His role before “There’s a QB, get him!” His role now “There’s a QB, get him”. The rush OLB isn’t a coverage role, he’s still a pass rusher. The 1-2 snaps a game that Hunter might stand in a zone aren’t much different than a zone blitz that could be run in a 4-3.

Change is Physical, not mental

#3: NT: Pencil in Dalvin Tomlinson here because he’s the biggest guy. Going to have to line up over the center or C/G gap. Given how much time Michael Pierce missed last year, Tomlinson seems like a good fit for this role. Maybe he get’s double teamed slightly more often, but I think he’s used to being double teamed. Ultimately, I don’t know how much new he has to learn, this change is a question of if he has the power to hold this point of attack.

Lots of change

#2: ILB1: Eric Kendricks, Smith and Hunter aren’t coverage guys, at most they can take up a zone near one end of the line of scrimmage. Kendricks looks like he will need to cover more space in coverage, this is what I think of as his strength, but age is a factor.

#1: DE: Armon Watts (or Phillips), whoever is on the true DE side will have a big change. The Vikings have 3 guys weighing in at 300+ each in Watts, Phillips, Tomlinson, one of them will be out at the G/T or even T/TE 5 tech spot. That’s a long way from the QB. This is great on running plays since they should have a power advantage over smaller 4-3 DEs. But on passing plays, that’s a long way to go with a completely different skill set on how to get there.

So this boils down to 3 guys that have to do something that is different than what they are used to: Dalvin Tomlinson, Eric Kendricks and Armon Watts (probably). Two of the most significant changes, ROLB and ILB2 are filled by new guys who played those roles before. So then I ask:
Can Dalvin Tomlinson eat up blockers?
Can Eric Kendricks play in space?
Can Armon Watts produce some pass rush pressure?

Watts is the one with the biggest question to me. However I took a loot at Watts’ pff grades for 2021:
255 Run defense defense snaps: 45.1 run defense grade
414 Pass rush snaps: 70.9 pass rush grade

So different role, some evidence that it plays to his strengths.  After this I feel somewhat better about the change.

My impression is that there are many complexities to NFL defenses, and the Fangio scheme succeeds in part because of how they cover receivers in multiple receiver sets. Ed Donatell coached Defensive Backs and developed these schemes with Fangio. If you look at the Vikings secondary, they have a perennial Pro Bowl Safety in Smith and a near Hall of Fame Cornerback in Patrick Peterson. They have a rookie Safety who has great speed and talent, and they have some solid veteran CBs in Sullivan and Dantzler. Smith and Peterson don't have to be in their prime to make this defense very good. Their rookie draft picks could also contribute as they get healthy and gain experience. The better Fangio scheme will help all of these players look better than they would in less effective schemes.

They also have two Inside Linebackers who are great in coverage. If the D Line gets pressure, the Vikings' pass defense could be very good. This means that Hunter and Smith need to be healthy. If they are, I think this Pass Defense will be the best the Vikings have had in years.

Against the run, I don't know how good they will be. Phillips, Tomlinson, and Hunter are good against the run. Hicks and Harrison Smith are good. Z Smith? Kendricks in a 3-4? The other DE? Who will it be on 1st and 2nd down? It may not be an issue until they play a team with a strong running game. And if the opponent gets behind, they won't be running as much.

Zimmer always talked about stopping the run first. And in the past two years, they could not stop either when it counted. It is harder when your NT is out or injured and players like Hunter and Barr are out. But Zimmer's D lost its edge without Hunter.

I think the 2022 Viking Defense will play much differently than in the past few years, and I think we will be surprised how good this Vikings team is against the Pass. I look forward to seeing how a better scheme helps this defense compete.

You have to look back to his Cincinnati days for part of your answer. Zimmer never had a CB1 that he could leave on an island against Elite WRs. He also had a throwback MLB in Rey Maualuga who couldn't cover his own shadow. And yet he had many good Defenses during his tenure in Cincinnati.

When he inherited Rhodes he obviously tweaked his scheme to take advantage of it. Newman, too, in that Terrance understood his scheme as well as probably any player ever has and was like another Coach on the field to help the youngsters understand the scheme.

The thing I keep coming back to is how dependent he was on generating a pass rush from his DEs. Zimmer inherited (and greatly improved) Griffin and hit a home run with Hunter. But they never developed any other consistent DEs and once Everson regressed things got worse.

It doesn't help that Spielman seemed allergic to drafting DEs with high Round picks after Hunter. But Zimmer and Patterson were also clearly comfortable with DTs like Shamar Stephens who couldn't generate a lick of pressure. When you're QB pressures are coming almost exclusively from just your DEs you have to have a whole stable of them. And Minnesota never did.

Which led to tons of blitzing to generate pressure, which is dangerous. Especially when you no longer have a shutdown CB1.

Was Zimmer's famously complicated Coverage Scheme to blame? Sure. So was his and Rick's inability to hit on high Round CB picks. Was his over reliance on DEs generating pressure to blame? Sure. So was Rick's ignoring putting more than late Round picks into the talent pool at that position. And Hunter getting hurt would be hard for any Team to replace. But that lack of a quality DE opposite of him after Griffin regressed sure was glaring.

So, like Life, it's not just one simple thing but a variety of factors. I think Mike Zimmer was a very good Defensive mind but Roster mismanagement, which he played some part in, an overly complex Coverage system, over reliance on DEs and his general conservative nature in 2 minute situations all combined to undermine his Defensive acumen.

SKOL!!!

Funny that none of the "good" WRs we'll play are in the division.