Post by Purple Pain on Feb 9, 2022 18:31:08 GMT -6
We've heard enough negative things about Zimmer's offenses, so, it's time to get excited about what Kevin O’Connell can do, right? Right?!
A few things to get us started:
Zone Coverage: What Kind Of Offense Will Kevin O’Connell Run? by Luke Braun
Link:
zonecoverage.com/2022/minnesota-vikings-news/what-kind-of-offense-will-kevin-oconnell-run/
Purple Insider: What can Kevin O'Connell do to improve Kirk Cousins' play?
Link:
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/what-can-a-new-coach-do-to-improve
From another thread:
A few things here:
Zone Coverage: Did the Vikings Hire the Right Person From the McVay/Shanahan Tree?by Rob Searles
...
Link:
zonecoverage.com/2022/minnesota-vikings-news/did-the-vikings-hire-the-right-person-from-the-mcvay-shanahan-tree/
Zone Coverage: How Kevin O'Connell Could Take Justin Jefferson To the Next Level by Chris Schad
Link:
zonecoverage.com/2022/minnesota-vikings-news/how-kevin-oconnell-could-take-justin-jefferson-to-the-next-level/
Zone Coverage: Osborn and Smith-Marsette Should Flourish In O'Connell's Offense by Cole Smith
Link:
zonecoverage.com/2022/minnesota-vikings-news/osborn-and-smith-marsette-should-flourish-in-oconnells-offense/
A few things to get us started:
Zone Coverage: What Kind Of Offense Will Kevin O’Connell Run? by Luke Braun
O’CONNELL’S VISION
You may think that O’Connell will simply take the famous McVay offense and install it in Minnesota. After all, that’d be an excellent fit for Kirk Cousins, who O’Connell reportedly wants to keep around. Plus, that offense is in the Super Bowl, so it must be a pretty good idea, right?
There are several ways to construct an offense, though. The easiest way to understand it is to identify the team’s rushing style and work outward from there. That makes it convenient that the Vikings hired their run-game coordinator first. O’Connell’s vision of a ground game is a bit more “multiple,” as he puts it, which is to say not relying entirely on zone schemes.
Zone running is the wave in the NFL. McVay’s coaching tree is exploding, of course. As is Kyle Shanahan’s, and there are still Gary Kubiak disciples roaming around. That is the zone-running cabal of the NFL, and it has fully seized control. Outside-zone running, at its core, is defined by offensive linemen starting a run play on a horizontal track.
There are other variants of zone that follow similar logic. Move defenders horizontally, then punish that movement. Someone like Kubiak would want to focus on that exclusively. If you can become so good at zone running that even a team that has studied it can’t stop you, you won’t need any other tools.
On the other end of the spectrum lands O’Connell. After becoming Washington’s offensive coordinator in 2019, he talked about the importance of being multiple in the run game. O’Connell wants a team that can execute more than just zone runs in an ideal world. Other teams utilize power running, gap running, and all sorts of off-the-wall variants like traps, options, and so on.
If you face a defense that is particularly well-suited to defend the zone run, and you can’t transition to anything else, you may find yourself trapped. O’Connell wants to be able to identify a run defense’s biggest weakness and be prepared to attack it. This is further evidenced by the recent evolution in the Los Angeles Rams’ offense since O’Connell wrested more control over it.
The Rams now run more duo and power to attack the zone-countering fronts their opponents threw at them. It’s not a coincidence that LA varied their run schemes as soon as O’Connell, a vocal proponent of the idea, arrived.
And now, the very first staffer the Vikings hired, Curtis Modkins, is from a similarly varied scheme. Modkins ran mostly zone in Denver but peppered in a healthy amount of other schemes.
From all this, it’s safe to assume that the Vikings won’t be as much of a pure zone team as they were under Kubiak. Instead, they’ll make the run game multiple, which is more like what Kubiak the younger tried in 2021. Of course, it didn’t work. But you’d expect the new staff to think they can outdo Klint Kubiak.
WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THE VIKINGS
So, who cares? It’s just a run game. And while it’s true that O’Connell made his paper on the passing game, the run game still gives us important clues. First and foremost, it might tell us some about the future of the Vikings’ roster. Some players with uncertain futures, such as Garrett Bradbury and Alexander Mattison, would be significantly affected by this change.
Mattison has been in pure zone schemes since he started at Boise State. Next season would be his eighth year running in a zone scheme if the Vikings were to go that direction. Trying to go more multiple might take some getting used to for Mattison as he enters a contract year.
Bradbury is also in a contract year and is an awkward fit. His lighter, nimbler build makes him a pure zone center. If the Vikings are going to mix in run plays that require more pure power, Bradbury’s future in Minnesota will become even murkier than it already is.
Beyond that, however, it defines the passing game. A team’s play-action passing game isn’t necessarily defined by how often they run. There are plenty of ratios that teams employ to varying degrees of success. But how they run determines how they play-action pass. After all, a run fake should look like a real run play.
So if the Vikings stuck with outside zone, they’d also stick with the outside zone bootlegs that Kirk Cousins has seen so much success with. If they want to run more duo, perhaps some seven-step-dropback shot plays would be in order. If they wanted to install some option runs, it would be easy to transition those into more run-pass options or sprint-out plays for easy, rhythmic completions.
The last of those options seems most likely. O’Connell isn’t a huge fan of play-action. In fact, his insistence on using pass plays to set up more pass plays, instead of using the run to set up play-action, cost him an offensive coordinator gig in Washington — after which he re-joined Sean McVay in LA.
Like the run game changes, O’Connell moved the Rams away from their vaunted play-action attack in the last two years.
That all leads to a clear vision: A drop-back, quick-passing, rhythmic attack. The Vikings might look to spread things out and attack defenses spatially with quick-read concepts. This would make it easier to protect the quarterback (Cousins or otherwise) and make more use of weapons like Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.
Because the Vikings won’t have a particularly repetitive rushing attack, it’ll be much harder to set up quality play-action. That might be okay if Minnesota chooses other ways to manipulate defenders and create conflict in their assignments. Doing so is a much more difficult ask, but it is a key part of both the Cincinnati Bengals’ and Rams’ offenses. What are they up to this weekend?
You may think that O’Connell will simply take the famous McVay offense and install it in Minnesota. After all, that’d be an excellent fit for Kirk Cousins, who O’Connell reportedly wants to keep around. Plus, that offense is in the Super Bowl, so it must be a pretty good idea, right?
There are several ways to construct an offense, though. The easiest way to understand it is to identify the team’s rushing style and work outward from there. That makes it convenient that the Vikings hired their run-game coordinator first. O’Connell’s vision of a ground game is a bit more “multiple,” as he puts it, which is to say not relying entirely on zone schemes.
Zone running is the wave in the NFL. McVay’s coaching tree is exploding, of course. As is Kyle Shanahan’s, and there are still Gary Kubiak disciples roaming around. That is the zone-running cabal of the NFL, and it has fully seized control. Outside-zone running, at its core, is defined by offensive linemen starting a run play on a horizontal track.
There are other variants of zone that follow similar logic. Move defenders horizontally, then punish that movement. Someone like Kubiak would want to focus on that exclusively. If you can become so good at zone running that even a team that has studied it can’t stop you, you won’t need any other tools.
On the other end of the spectrum lands O’Connell. After becoming Washington’s offensive coordinator in 2019, he talked about the importance of being multiple in the run game. O’Connell wants a team that can execute more than just zone runs in an ideal world. Other teams utilize power running, gap running, and all sorts of off-the-wall variants like traps, options, and so on.
If you face a defense that is particularly well-suited to defend the zone run, and you can’t transition to anything else, you may find yourself trapped. O’Connell wants to be able to identify a run defense’s biggest weakness and be prepared to attack it. This is further evidenced by the recent evolution in the Los Angeles Rams’ offense since O’Connell wrested more control over it.
The Rams now run more duo and power to attack the zone-countering fronts their opponents threw at them. It’s not a coincidence that LA varied their run schemes as soon as O’Connell, a vocal proponent of the idea, arrived.
And now, the very first staffer the Vikings hired, Curtis Modkins, is from a similarly varied scheme. Modkins ran mostly zone in Denver but peppered in a healthy amount of other schemes.
From all this, it’s safe to assume that the Vikings won’t be as much of a pure zone team as they were under Kubiak. Instead, they’ll make the run game multiple, which is more like what Kubiak the younger tried in 2021. Of course, it didn’t work. But you’d expect the new staff to think they can outdo Klint Kubiak.
WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THE VIKINGS
So, who cares? It’s just a run game. And while it’s true that O’Connell made his paper on the passing game, the run game still gives us important clues. First and foremost, it might tell us some about the future of the Vikings’ roster. Some players with uncertain futures, such as Garrett Bradbury and Alexander Mattison, would be significantly affected by this change.
Mattison has been in pure zone schemes since he started at Boise State. Next season would be his eighth year running in a zone scheme if the Vikings were to go that direction. Trying to go more multiple might take some getting used to for Mattison as he enters a contract year.
Bradbury is also in a contract year and is an awkward fit. His lighter, nimbler build makes him a pure zone center. If the Vikings are going to mix in run plays that require more pure power, Bradbury’s future in Minnesota will become even murkier than it already is.
Beyond that, however, it defines the passing game. A team’s play-action passing game isn’t necessarily defined by how often they run. There are plenty of ratios that teams employ to varying degrees of success. But how they run determines how they play-action pass. After all, a run fake should look like a real run play.
So if the Vikings stuck with outside zone, they’d also stick with the outside zone bootlegs that Kirk Cousins has seen so much success with. If they want to run more duo, perhaps some seven-step-dropback shot plays would be in order. If they wanted to install some option runs, it would be easy to transition those into more run-pass options or sprint-out plays for easy, rhythmic completions.
The last of those options seems most likely. O’Connell isn’t a huge fan of play-action. In fact, his insistence on using pass plays to set up more pass plays, instead of using the run to set up play-action, cost him an offensive coordinator gig in Washington — after which he re-joined Sean McVay in LA.
Like the run game changes, O’Connell moved the Rams away from their vaunted play-action attack in the last two years.
That all leads to a clear vision: A drop-back, quick-passing, rhythmic attack. The Vikings might look to spread things out and attack defenses spatially with quick-read concepts. This would make it easier to protect the quarterback (Cousins or otherwise) and make more use of weapons like Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.
Because the Vikings won’t have a particularly repetitive rushing attack, it’ll be much harder to set up quality play-action. That might be okay if Minnesota chooses other ways to manipulate defenders and create conflict in their assignments. Doing so is a much more difficult ask, but it is a key part of both the Cincinnati Bengals’ and Rams’ offenses. What are they up to this weekend?
zonecoverage.com/2022/minnesota-vikings-news/what-kind-of-offense-will-kevin-oconnell-run/
Purple Insider: What can Kevin O'Connell do to improve Kirk Cousins' play?
But there are some down sides to the Vikings’ offense with Cousins. Since 2018, they have only scored the 13th most points in the NFL. They rank 21st in third down percentage and 25th in time of possession. Only Matt Ryan has thrown the ball more times in the last four years on third-and-long (more than seven yards to go).
On those third-and-longs, Cousins has dropped back 326 times and gained a first down through the air just 94 times (28.9%). If you are wondering, league average is 26.5%. The average QB rating on third-and-7 or longer is 81.4. Put another way: Third-and-long turns the league into Daniel Jones.
Adjusting the run-pass ratio on first down is one way to avoid landing on third-and-long. Since 2018, the Vikings are exactly 50-50 when it comes to running or passing on first-and-10. First down represents the best opportunity to run play-action passes, where Cousins thrives. He has averaged 8.2 yards per attempt on first-and-10 over the last four years but there may be more meat on that bone. Lesser or equal quarterbacks have had more success, including Ryan Fitzpatrick (8.6 YPA), Jameis Winston (9.1), Kyle Allen (8.1).
It’s a scheme-up-anything down, which may explain Jimmy Garoppolo producing the NFL’s best 10.1 YPA and Jared Goff coming in with nearly equal numbers to Cousins (8.0).
Cousins has ranked 18th, 11th, 5th and 22nd in play-action percentage over the past four seasons, leaving some room for improvement. Some of that may have been dictated by playing behind in games — Cousins has the third most passes thrown when trailing over the last four years — but there’s also a chicken-and-egg question about whether they got behind by not passing enough.
Interestingly when the Vikings have thrown the ball on first-and-10, they have used Jefferson as much as anyone else in the league has thrown to their top receiver. Jefferson has 96 first down targets over the last two years while Cooper Kupp has 95 and they both rank in the top 10 most used receivers. How’s it working? Jefferson has 70 receptions for 982 yards.
That doesn’t mean the Vikings should throw the running game in the Mississippi River. Dalvin Cook averages 5.4 yards per rush on first-and-10 over the last two years. It needs a tweak, not a complete overhaul.
On second-and-long is where the Vikings ran too often. The only teams that rushed more times on second-and-long since Cousins became a Viking are the Bills, Titans, Colts and Ravens. Two of those teams have running quarterbacks. And the Vikings rank 26th in first down percentage in those situations.
Passing on second-and-10 more often isn’t likely to boost Cousins’ numbers. He has a pedestrian 7.3 yards per attempt and 97.7 rating on second-and-long but producing more points with him at the helm is the goal, not boosting his numbers.
Cousins has only produced one year in his career (2019) in which his team has a top 10 offense. As you can see in the chart below, having a top 10 scoring offense is a prerequisite to reach the Super Bowl, even if a team’s defense isn’t excellent.
One thing about the 2019 Vikings offense that stands out is the team’s success in screen passing.
Cousins gained the fifth most total yards via the screen and averaged 8.7 yards per screen attempt, second most in the NFL. Last year Cousins dropped to 5.7 YPA, which still ranked 11th.
There are other areas along the margins where O’Connell can boost his team’s chances to have an elite passing game. For example, Cooper Kupp lined up in the slot 65.5% of the time in 2021 for the Rams. Jefferson was used as a slot receiver on only 31% of his plays. Using Jefferson more in the slot could create easier completions in his direction.
The average throw to Jefferson also traveled 13.3 yards. Passes toward Kupp averaged 7.6 yards through the air. Shorter passes aren’t always better but Jefferson was used similarly to deep threats DK Metcalf and Marvin Jones.
Modern elements like pre-snap motion could be utilized more. As you can see from ESPN’s Seth Walder below, the Vikings didn’t avoid motion in 2021 but the Rams and 49ers used it all the time.
And now here's every team's motion rates in 2021. Number on left is motion on the snap -- what I mostly talk about. Number on right is all shifts/motion (including motion man coming set pre-snap).
The bottom line is that there are small edges that O’Connell can improve upon from the past with coaching alone. If the Vikings can even approach the Rams’ offensive line play, which ranked No. 1 in pass blocking by PFF this year, that could give Cousins the comfort in the pocket that he’s missed since joining the Vikings in 2018.
The question that all of this raises is: Could all of these improvements along with the foundation of a good offense also work for other quarterbacks — maybe ones who are less expensive and more mobile?
If the roster and system are strong, wouldn’t that lend itself to the Vikings being in prime position to set up the next QB for success while creating cap space to build a complete roster?
These numbers demonstrate that there are parts of QB play that can’t be controlled simply by the play designer and play caller. That’s why the Rams moved on from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford.
We’ll find out in the coming weeks whether the Vikings believe the right answer is to squeeze more out of Cousins or look elsewhere.
On those third-and-longs, Cousins has dropped back 326 times and gained a first down through the air just 94 times (28.9%). If you are wondering, league average is 26.5%. The average QB rating on third-and-7 or longer is 81.4. Put another way: Third-and-long turns the league into Daniel Jones.
Adjusting the run-pass ratio on first down is one way to avoid landing on third-and-long. Since 2018, the Vikings are exactly 50-50 when it comes to running or passing on first-and-10. First down represents the best opportunity to run play-action passes, where Cousins thrives. He has averaged 8.2 yards per attempt on first-and-10 over the last four years but there may be more meat on that bone. Lesser or equal quarterbacks have had more success, including Ryan Fitzpatrick (8.6 YPA), Jameis Winston (9.1), Kyle Allen (8.1).
It’s a scheme-up-anything down, which may explain Jimmy Garoppolo producing the NFL’s best 10.1 YPA and Jared Goff coming in with nearly equal numbers to Cousins (8.0).
Cousins has ranked 18th, 11th, 5th and 22nd in play-action percentage over the past four seasons, leaving some room for improvement. Some of that may have been dictated by playing behind in games — Cousins has the third most passes thrown when trailing over the last four years — but there’s also a chicken-and-egg question about whether they got behind by not passing enough.
Interestingly when the Vikings have thrown the ball on first-and-10, they have used Jefferson as much as anyone else in the league has thrown to their top receiver. Jefferson has 96 first down targets over the last two years while Cooper Kupp has 95 and they both rank in the top 10 most used receivers. How’s it working? Jefferson has 70 receptions for 982 yards.
That doesn’t mean the Vikings should throw the running game in the Mississippi River. Dalvin Cook averages 5.4 yards per rush on first-and-10 over the last two years. It needs a tweak, not a complete overhaul.
On second-and-long is where the Vikings ran too often. The only teams that rushed more times on second-and-long since Cousins became a Viking are the Bills, Titans, Colts and Ravens. Two of those teams have running quarterbacks. And the Vikings rank 26th in first down percentage in those situations.
Passing on second-and-10 more often isn’t likely to boost Cousins’ numbers. He has a pedestrian 7.3 yards per attempt and 97.7 rating on second-and-long but producing more points with him at the helm is the goal, not boosting his numbers.
Cousins has only produced one year in his career (2019) in which his team has a top 10 offense. As you can see in the chart below, having a top 10 scoring offense is a prerequisite to reach the Super Bowl, even if a team’s defense isn’t excellent.
One thing about the 2019 Vikings offense that stands out is the team’s success in screen passing.
Cousins gained the fifth most total yards via the screen and averaged 8.7 yards per screen attempt, second most in the NFL. Last year Cousins dropped to 5.7 YPA, which still ranked 11th.
There are other areas along the margins where O’Connell can boost his team’s chances to have an elite passing game. For example, Cooper Kupp lined up in the slot 65.5% of the time in 2021 for the Rams. Jefferson was used as a slot receiver on only 31% of his plays. Using Jefferson more in the slot could create easier completions in his direction.
The average throw to Jefferson also traveled 13.3 yards. Passes toward Kupp averaged 7.6 yards through the air. Shorter passes aren’t always better but Jefferson was used similarly to deep threats DK Metcalf and Marvin Jones.
Modern elements like pre-snap motion could be utilized more. As you can see from ESPN’s Seth Walder below, the Vikings didn’t avoid motion in 2021 but the Rams and 49ers used it all the time.
And now here's every team's motion rates in 2021. Number on left is motion on the snap -- what I mostly talk about. Number on right is all shifts/motion (including motion man coming set pre-snap).
The bottom line is that there are small edges that O’Connell can improve upon from the past with coaching alone. If the Vikings can even approach the Rams’ offensive line play, which ranked No. 1 in pass blocking by PFF this year, that could give Cousins the comfort in the pocket that he’s missed since joining the Vikings in 2018.
The question that all of this raises is: Could all of these improvements along with the foundation of a good offense also work for other quarterbacks — maybe ones who are less expensive and more mobile?
If the roster and system are strong, wouldn’t that lend itself to the Vikings being in prime position to set up the next QB for success while creating cap space to build a complete roster?
These numbers demonstrate that there are parts of QB play that can’t be controlled simply by the play designer and play caller. That’s why the Rams moved on from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford.
We’ll find out in the coming weeks whether the Vikings believe the right answer is to squeeze more out of Cousins or look elsewhere.
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/what-can-a-new-coach-do-to-improve
From another thread:
Zone Coverage: Did the Vikings Hire the Right Person From the McVay/Shanahan Tree?by Rob Searles
Circling back on the Shanahan/McVay coaching tree. It’s tough to argue against what this NFL power circle has accomplished in a short amount of time. Since 2016, the Shanahan/McVay coaching tree has been responsible for:
One Super Bowl champion (to be crowned on Sunday)
Five Super Bowl appearances (two from Shanahan, two from McVay, and one from Zac Taylor)
Eight Conference Championship Game appearances (three from Shanahan, two from McVay, two from LaFleur, and one from Taylor)
And while folks are quick to point out that LaFleur inherited a team in Green Bay led by Aaron Rodgers, it’s important to remember that these accolades also include teams that were quarterbacked by:
Matt Ryan (2016)
Jared Goff (2018)
Jimmy Garoppolo (2019 & 2021)
Joe Burrow (2021)
Matthew Stafford (2021)
Not exactly a who’s who of household signal-callers.
When you consider that O’Connell and McDaniel are different flavors of the NFL’s most successful coaching tree in recent memory, it’s fair to ask: Did the Vikings decide to hire the right Shanahan/McVay understudy?
One Super Bowl champion (to be crowned on Sunday)
Five Super Bowl appearances (two from Shanahan, two from McVay, and one from Zac Taylor)
Eight Conference Championship Game appearances (three from Shanahan, two from McVay, two from LaFleur, and one from Taylor)
And while folks are quick to point out that LaFleur inherited a team in Green Bay led by Aaron Rodgers, it’s important to remember that these accolades also include teams that were quarterbacked by:
Matt Ryan (2016)
Jared Goff (2018)
Jimmy Garoppolo (2019 & 2021)
Joe Burrow (2021)
Matthew Stafford (2021)
Not exactly a who’s who of household signal-callers.
When you consider that O’Connell and McDaniel are different flavors of the NFL’s most successful coaching tree in recent memory, it’s fair to ask: Did the Vikings decide to hire the right Shanahan/McVay understudy?
Enter, Kevin O’Connell.
Before landing with McVay and the Rams, O’Connell spent three years in Washington, including the 2017 season with Kirk Cousins and one season with San Francisco and Cleveland.
O’Connell has spent his NFL coaching career as part of offenses that relied heavily on their wide receivers. Since 2017, O’Connell’s offenses have utilized 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers) at the following rates:
’17 (Washington): 59% (10th highest)
’18 (Washington): 71% (7th highest)
’19 (Washington): 70% (6th highest)
’20 (Los Angeles Rams): 65% (13th highest)
’21 (Los Angeles Rams): 85% (highest in the NFL)
After the Vikings and Mike Zimmer stuck Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Jefferson in an archaic offense that was dominated by the running game, O’Connell’s background in these receiver-centric systems will be a sight for sore eyes of Skoldiers who still hold on to fond memories of Randy Moss and Cris Carter.
Most recently, O’Connell played a vital role in Cooper Kupp achieving one of the most successful seasons for a wide receiver in NFL history. Kupp led the league in receptions (145), yards (1,947), and touchdowns (16) this year. And with Robert Woods, Odell Beckham Jr, and Van Jefferson, life was made a heck of a lot easier for Kupp when other dynamic threats surrounded him.
Not to take anything away from Kupp, but I think we can all agree that Justin Jefferson is the far more talented receiver. And if O’Connell knows how to turn Kupp into the most statistically impressive receiver of the 2021 season, then the sky is truly the limit for Jefferson in this offense.
With Adam Thielen playing the 1b role — like Woods or Beckham this year for the Rams — Jefferson has the capability to reach new heights in Year 3. Jefferson had this to say at the NFL Pro Bowl over the weekend when asked about the O’Connell hire.
When comparing O’Connell and McDaniel, it’s apparent that Minnesota’s offensive firepower with Jefferson, Thielen, Dalvin Cook, Kirk Cousins, and Irv Smith Jr. made more immediate sense for O’Connell’s passing concepts. And not to take anything away from McDaniel, but his run-game prowess isn’t exactly the best fit for a team that currently has the only wide receiver in NFL history to record over 3,000 receiving yards after his first two seasons.
And with the way the Rams have prioritized the wide receiver position over the past two offseasons — spending second-round picks on Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell in consecutive drafts — Skoldiers shouldn’t be surprised if this new regime led by Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell spends serious draft capital on WR for the 2022 season. Jameson Williams or Garrett Wilson at the 12th-overall pick could provide O’Connell with the quintessential 11-personnel for his debut season in Minnesota.
Pull your Three Deep posters out, Skoldiers, because O’Connell is going to recreate the magical offensive firepower that we saw with Moss, Carter, and Jake Reed by slinging the pill across the yard.
Before landing with McVay and the Rams, O’Connell spent three years in Washington, including the 2017 season with Kirk Cousins and one season with San Francisco and Cleveland.
O’Connell has spent his NFL coaching career as part of offenses that relied heavily on their wide receivers. Since 2017, O’Connell’s offenses have utilized 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers) at the following rates:
’17 (Washington): 59% (10th highest)
’18 (Washington): 71% (7th highest)
’19 (Washington): 70% (6th highest)
’20 (Los Angeles Rams): 65% (13th highest)
’21 (Los Angeles Rams): 85% (highest in the NFL)
After the Vikings and Mike Zimmer stuck Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Jefferson in an archaic offense that was dominated by the running game, O’Connell’s background in these receiver-centric systems will be a sight for sore eyes of Skoldiers who still hold on to fond memories of Randy Moss and Cris Carter.
Most recently, O’Connell played a vital role in Cooper Kupp achieving one of the most successful seasons for a wide receiver in NFL history. Kupp led the league in receptions (145), yards (1,947), and touchdowns (16) this year. And with Robert Woods, Odell Beckham Jr, and Van Jefferson, life was made a heck of a lot easier for Kupp when other dynamic threats surrounded him.
Not to take anything away from Kupp, but I think we can all agree that Justin Jefferson is the far more talented receiver. And if O’Connell knows how to turn Kupp into the most statistically impressive receiver of the 2021 season, then the sky is truly the limit for Jefferson in this offense.
With Adam Thielen playing the 1b role — like Woods or Beckham this year for the Rams — Jefferson has the capability to reach new heights in Year 3. Jefferson had this to say at the NFL Pro Bowl over the weekend when asked about the O’Connell hire.
When comparing O’Connell and McDaniel, it’s apparent that Minnesota’s offensive firepower with Jefferson, Thielen, Dalvin Cook, Kirk Cousins, and Irv Smith Jr. made more immediate sense for O’Connell’s passing concepts. And not to take anything away from McDaniel, but his run-game prowess isn’t exactly the best fit for a team that currently has the only wide receiver in NFL history to record over 3,000 receiving yards after his first two seasons.
And with the way the Rams have prioritized the wide receiver position over the past two offseasons — spending second-round picks on Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell in consecutive drafts — Skoldiers shouldn’t be surprised if this new regime led by Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell spends serious draft capital on WR for the 2022 season. Jameson Williams or Garrett Wilson at the 12th-overall pick could provide O’Connell with the quintessential 11-personnel for his debut season in Minnesota.
Pull your Three Deep posters out, Skoldiers, because O’Connell is going to recreate the magical offensive firepower that we saw with Moss, Carter, and Jake Reed by slinging the pill across the yard.
Link:
zonecoverage.com/2022/minnesota-vikings-news/did-the-vikings-hire-the-right-person-from-the-mcvay-shanahan-tree/
Zone Coverage: How Kevin O'Connell Could Take Justin Jefferson To the Next Level by Chris Schad
The interviewer asked Jefferson about his new head coach, Kevin O’Connell. Lost in the maze of things you would expect an employee to say about his new boss, Jefferson made a straightforward statement.
“They get their playmakers the ball.”
Over the past two years, no receiver has more yards than Jefferson. But his 292 targets rank seventh in the NFL. Those numbers don’t suggest he was ignored by his offense. But the Vikings used Jefferson in a way that kept him from unleashing his potential.
How can O’Connell take Jefferson to the next level? Look at what he did with Cooper Kupp. A refined route-runner in his own right, Kupp is in Jefferson’s stratosphere when it comes to talent. But the Los Angeles Rams are headed to the Super Bowl because O’Connell made sure Kupp got the ball early and often.
Most of Kupp’s success last season occurred on first and second down: 77.9% of his receptions and 73.8% of his yardage, to be exact. According to Sharp’s Football Stats, the Rams threw the ball 55% of the time on first and second down, which helped Los Angeles avoid third-and-long situations.
That’s a huge difference from how the Vikings operated. Although they had a 51% pass rate on first and second down, they weren’t targeting Jefferson. He collected 64.8% of his receptions and 59.4% of his yardage on those plays.
While the Vikings usually made an effort to target Jefferson in the first quarter, sometimes he disappeared in the second. That could correlate with Klint Kubiak’s struggles after his list of scripted plays. Conversely, the Rams continued to look for Kupp no matter what stage of the game they were in.
But the Vikings’ biggest problem last season wasn’t that they weren’t throwing to Jefferson enough. It was that they weren’t game-planning around their players’ strengths.
Even though Minnesota lost Irv Smith Jr. for the season, they continued to run screens with Tyler Conklin. When Dalvin Cook was out of the lineup, they ran the same schemes with Alexander Mattison. And when the Vikings decided to pass, Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and K.J. Osborn rarely deviated from their normal roles.
Jefferson averaged 2.18 yards per route run in the slot last season, seventh in the NFL. However, the Vikings only had Jefferson run 25.8% of his routes out of the slot. By comparison, Osborn ran 51.4% of his routes from the slot and averaged 1.49 yards per route run.
Osborn’s performance from the slot wasn’t terrible. But by placing him there, the Vikings are not taking advantage of one of Jefferson’s biggest strengths.
During the 2019 season at LSU, Jefferson ran 97.8% of his routes out of the slot and averaged 2.64 yards per route run. Part of one of the most explosive offenses in college football history, Jefferson racked up 111 catches, 1,540 yards, and 18 touchdowns en route to helping the Tigers win the national title.
Even during his rookie season, the Vikings made a point of using Jefferson out of the slot. Jefferson ran 31.4% of his routes from the slot in 2020, averaging 2.99 yards per route run. Thielen also spent time in the slot, accounting for 32.1% of his routes and averaging 2.41 yards per route run.
While Kupp’s 63.8% slot rate is an extreme example, it’s a blueprint the Vikings could use. Kupp was second in the NFL this season with 3.36 yards per route run in the slot. It was a big reason why Kupp became the first receiver since 2005 and the fourth since 1970 to lead the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns in a single season.
After two seasons in the same offense, it’s scary to think that the Vikings weren’t using Jefferson to his maximum potential. By bringing in O’Connell, Jefferson should finally be able to play to his strengths and take his game to another level.
“They get their playmakers the ball.”
Over the past two years, no receiver has more yards than Jefferson. But his 292 targets rank seventh in the NFL. Those numbers don’t suggest he was ignored by his offense. But the Vikings used Jefferson in a way that kept him from unleashing his potential.
How can O’Connell take Jefferson to the next level? Look at what he did with Cooper Kupp. A refined route-runner in his own right, Kupp is in Jefferson’s stratosphere when it comes to talent. But the Los Angeles Rams are headed to the Super Bowl because O’Connell made sure Kupp got the ball early and often.
Most of Kupp’s success last season occurred on first and second down: 77.9% of his receptions and 73.8% of his yardage, to be exact. According to Sharp’s Football Stats, the Rams threw the ball 55% of the time on first and second down, which helped Los Angeles avoid third-and-long situations.
That’s a huge difference from how the Vikings operated. Although they had a 51% pass rate on first and second down, they weren’t targeting Jefferson. He collected 64.8% of his receptions and 59.4% of his yardage on those plays.
While the Vikings usually made an effort to target Jefferson in the first quarter, sometimes he disappeared in the second. That could correlate with Klint Kubiak’s struggles after his list of scripted plays. Conversely, the Rams continued to look for Kupp no matter what stage of the game they were in.
But the Vikings’ biggest problem last season wasn’t that they weren’t throwing to Jefferson enough. It was that they weren’t game-planning around their players’ strengths.
Even though Minnesota lost Irv Smith Jr. for the season, they continued to run screens with Tyler Conklin. When Dalvin Cook was out of the lineup, they ran the same schemes with Alexander Mattison. And when the Vikings decided to pass, Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and K.J. Osborn rarely deviated from their normal roles.
Jefferson averaged 2.18 yards per route run in the slot last season, seventh in the NFL. However, the Vikings only had Jefferson run 25.8% of his routes out of the slot. By comparison, Osborn ran 51.4% of his routes from the slot and averaged 1.49 yards per route run.
Osborn’s performance from the slot wasn’t terrible. But by placing him there, the Vikings are not taking advantage of one of Jefferson’s biggest strengths.
During the 2019 season at LSU, Jefferson ran 97.8% of his routes out of the slot and averaged 2.64 yards per route run. Part of one of the most explosive offenses in college football history, Jefferson racked up 111 catches, 1,540 yards, and 18 touchdowns en route to helping the Tigers win the national title.
Even during his rookie season, the Vikings made a point of using Jefferson out of the slot. Jefferson ran 31.4% of his routes from the slot in 2020, averaging 2.99 yards per route run. Thielen also spent time in the slot, accounting for 32.1% of his routes and averaging 2.41 yards per route run.
While Kupp’s 63.8% slot rate is an extreme example, it’s a blueprint the Vikings could use. Kupp was second in the NFL this season with 3.36 yards per route run in the slot. It was a big reason why Kupp became the first receiver since 2005 and the fourth since 1970 to lead the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns in a single season.
After two seasons in the same offense, it’s scary to think that the Vikings weren’t using Jefferson to his maximum potential. By bringing in O’Connell, Jefferson should finally be able to play to his strengths and take his game to another level.
zonecoverage.com/2022/minnesota-vikings-news/how-kevin-oconnell-could-take-justin-jefferson-to-the-next-level/
Zone Coverage: Osborn and Smith-Marsette Should Flourish In O'Connell's Offense by Cole Smith
After Los Angeles Rams receiver Cooper Kupp nearly broke the single-season record for receiving yards, it’s fair to wonder what ideas O’Connell has for Justin Jefferson. The Vikings’ wideout had another sensational year in his second season. Like Kupp, Jefferson almost broke the Vikings’ team record for receiving yards last year.
But beyond Jefferson, what can O’Connell do with the Vikings’ receiving corps? Adam Thielen is an established star. If he can quell injury concerns this year, he can still be a solid WR2. Behind him, though, are two intriguing youngsters.
K.J. Osborn burst onto the scene in 2021 after a disastrous rookie season. He seemed to solidify a role as the WR3 moving forward. Meanwhile, rookie Ihmir Smith-Marsette came on strong near the end of the season, scoring two touchdowns in the final month of the season.
Osborn ranked fourth on the team with 50 receptions. His 655 yards and seven touchdowns both ranked third on the team. Smith-Marsette didn’t see the field as much, only catching five passes for 116 yards. However, he splashed in the final game of the season with three receptions for 103 yards and a touchdown.
But the Rams used their depth receivers on a whole different level. Robert Woods only played nine games before getting injured, yet his 45 receptions for 556 yards and five combined touchdowns ranked fourth on the team by year’s end. When Woods went out, the Rams signed Odell Beckham Jr. to replace him. OBJ still finished sixth on the team in receptions with 27. His 305 yards were the fifth-most on the team. Like Woods, he added five touchdowns.
Osborn edged Woods and Beckham in each category, but he played every game of the season and took a vast majority of the WR3 reps. On top of that, Rams’ wideout Van Jefferson was also a productive wideout. So how was it that Woods and OBJ were so effective despite playing only half of the 2021 season?
Well, the Rams had more receivers on the field at one time than the Vikings. Per Sharp Football Stats, LA lined up in 11 personnel on 85% of their offensive snaps, most in the NFL. Eleven personnel features one running back and one tight end. Do the math – that’s three receivers on the field. Meanwhile, the Vikings lined up in 11 personnel 47% of the time. That’s well below the league-average rate of 61%.
But simply lining up with three receivers on the field doesn’t automatically produce results. Execution is paramount, as it is in any aspect of football. The Rams dropped back to pass 674 times in 11 personnel. They were 437 of 645 passing in that formation, throwing 46 touchdowns to 16 interceptions. LA netted a healthy 8.5 yards-per-attempt average with this personnel grouping.
Meanwhile, the Vikings were only 222 of 354 throwing out of this personnel. Their 21:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio was impressive, but they only netted 7.1 yards per attempt. That’s 2,969 fewer air yards than the Rams in the league’s most popular personnel grouping.
For those wondering if O’Connell will be influenced solely by Sean McVay, they should look no further than at O’Connell’s stint in Washington. With a promotion to offensive coordinator in the 2019 season, Washington lined up in 11 personnel 70% of the time. That made his transition into the McVay offense seamless.
With O’Connell likely bringing in the same emphasis for more receivers on the field, this would give Osborn even more opportunities to see the field. Before Thielen got injured in Week 13, he only saw over 65% of snaps in a game once. If he’s on the field more, he’d also lead to him getting spelled more often, allowing Smith-Marsette to get onto the field more and showcase his athleticism.
The Rams aren’t afraid to run jet sweeps and end-arounds with their wideouts, either, which could benefit Osborn and Smith-Marsette. Woods, Jefferson, and Kupp combined for 14 rushes for 84 yards on the season. Osborn and Smith-Marsette have returned punts and kicks, so don’t be surprised if O’Connell incorporates them into these sorts of runs when defenses are focusing on Jefferson and Thielen downfield.
There is a whole off-season still to play out. We don’t know if O’Connell will call plays as head coach, and we don’t know if Kirk Cousins will be returning as the Vikings’ quarterback. But despite these questions, we know that the offense will look drastically different in 2022 from a schematic standpoint. K.J. Osborn and Ihmir Smith-Marsette are two under-the-radar players who can benefit and flourish in O’Connell’s offense.
But beyond Jefferson, what can O’Connell do with the Vikings’ receiving corps? Adam Thielen is an established star. If he can quell injury concerns this year, he can still be a solid WR2. Behind him, though, are two intriguing youngsters.
K.J. Osborn burst onto the scene in 2021 after a disastrous rookie season. He seemed to solidify a role as the WR3 moving forward. Meanwhile, rookie Ihmir Smith-Marsette came on strong near the end of the season, scoring two touchdowns in the final month of the season.
Osborn ranked fourth on the team with 50 receptions. His 655 yards and seven touchdowns both ranked third on the team. Smith-Marsette didn’t see the field as much, only catching five passes for 116 yards. However, he splashed in the final game of the season with three receptions for 103 yards and a touchdown.
But the Rams used their depth receivers on a whole different level. Robert Woods only played nine games before getting injured, yet his 45 receptions for 556 yards and five combined touchdowns ranked fourth on the team by year’s end. When Woods went out, the Rams signed Odell Beckham Jr. to replace him. OBJ still finished sixth on the team in receptions with 27. His 305 yards were the fifth-most on the team. Like Woods, he added five touchdowns.
Osborn edged Woods and Beckham in each category, but he played every game of the season and took a vast majority of the WR3 reps. On top of that, Rams’ wideout Van Jefferson was also a productive wideout. So how was it that Woods and OBJ were so effective despite playing only half of the 2021 season?
Well, the Rams had more receivers on the field at one time than the Vikings. Per Sharp Football Stats, LA lined up in 11 personnel on 85% of their offensive snaps, most in the NFL. Eleven personnel features one running back and one tight end. Do the math – that’s three receivers on the field. Meanwhile, the Vikings lined up in 11 personnel 47% of the time. That’s well below the league-average rate of 61%.
But simply lining up with three receivers on the field doesn’t automatically produce results. Execution is paramount, as it is in any aspect of football. The Rams dropped back to pass 674 times in 11 personnel. They were 437 of 645 passing in that formation, throwing 46 touchdowns to 16 interceptions. LA netted a healthy 8.5 yards-per-attempt average with this personnel grouping.
Meanwhile, the Vikings were only 222 of 354 throwing out of this personnel. Their 21:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio was impressive, but they only netted 7.1 yards per attempt. That’s 2,969 fewer air yards than the Rams in the league’s most popular personnel grouping.
For those wondering if O’Connell will be influenced solely by Sean McVay, they should look no further than at O’Connell’s stint in Washington. With a promotion to offensive coordinator in the 2019 season, Washington lined up in 11 personnel 70% of the time. That made his transition into the McVay offense seamless.
With O’Connell likely bringing in the same emphasis for more receivers on the field, this would give Osborn even more opportunities to see the field. Before Thielen got injured in Week 13, he only saw over 65% of snaps in a game once. If he’s on the field more, he’d also lead to him getting spelled more often, allowing Smith-Marsette to get onto the field more and showcase his athleticism.
The Rams aren’t afraid to run jet sweeps and end-arounds with their wideouts, either, which could benefit Osborn and Smith-Marsette. Woods, Jefferson, and Kupp combined for 14 rushes for 84 yards on the season. Osborn and Smith-Marsette have returned punts and kicks, so don’t be surprised if O’Connell incorporates them into these sorts of runs when defenses are focusing on Jefferson and Thielen downfield.
There is a whole off-season still to play out. We don’t know if O’Connell will call plays as head coach, and we don’t know if Kirk Cousins will be returning as the Vikings’ quarterback. But despite these questions, we know that the offense will look drastically different in 2022 from a schematic standpoint. K.J. Osborn and Ihmir Smith-Marsette are two under-the-radar players who can benefit and flourish in O’Connell’s offense.
zonecoverage.com/2022/minnesota-vikings-news/osborn-and-smith-marsette-should-flourish-in-oconnells-offense/
Exciting times or nah!?
... and neither is this Chris guy.
