[OC] Let's Play Pay Kirk Cousins

Here's another way to look at it:

If this team extends Cousins, the fanbase will riot. He is hated by this fanbase. Everywhere I go Vikings fans want nothing to do with him. Whether it's his absurd contract or his sh*tty play on the field when it counts, Vikings fans want him out.

I think the Wilfs canned Zimmer and Spielman because the fans were clearly beyond pissed at them. It takes a lot for Vikings fans to boo their own team, in a win, against a division rival. Extending Cousins is basically saying "f*ck you, we don't care" to the fans after the Wilfs basically signaled that what they were doing before wasn't working.

Teams have managed to win more games with Mayfield, Goff and Wentz in a season than with Cousins.  Jimmy G this past season was 5th in passing DVOA, Cousins was 12th, meaning he was a much more effective passer this past season even if volume stats weren't there.  If, and this is a big if, some team would take Cousins and his full contract for a 2nd, we could trade him for a 2nd and likely get Jimmy G for our 3rd, saving 11 million.  Not ideal, but a situation where we would get out of the red without having to sacrifice cap from 2023 or 2024. Jimmy G is not a step down from Cousins, and in some ways he is a step up.  

That is not the move I would make though.  There are other QBs who would be cheaper who might not put up the passing numbers Cousins does, but might do just as much to help us win, which is not very much.  The QB who lead the 11th best passing DVOA offense is available for under 10 million.  Mariota, who LV was ready to bench Carr for before Carr started winning towards the end of the season has the mobility that Cousins is missing and could make up for not being as good of passer as Cousins with his legs.  

I just have been hearing the "if not Cousins than who" talk for 4 off seasons now, and every year those people are wrong and there is a QB or two who's team has more success with a QB who was available for less to the Vikings.  It will happen again this year guaranteed, since it is not that hard to replace a .500 QB.  

I'm dying to know who the top 5 passers were this year in DVOA and if any of them are playing in the Super Bowl. 

I've stated my plan on a number of occasions. This draft sucks, and right now I do not think competing in 2022 would be smart. Yeah, they'll say all the right things, but short of hiring a guy like Harbaugh or Peterson, I don't think it's even a remote chance.

I might take a late round flier on a high ceiling type, but I'm handing Mond the ball in 2022 and if we flop, we're drafting high in 2023. That's my plan. I'll add that if the Harbaugh rumors are not smoke, then add a few journeyman QBs to the option as well as someone like Baker Mayfield who has lost his shine in Cleveland and supposedly hates his HC. Heck, I could see a guy like Brady finagling his way out of Tampa to win a SB with a 3rd team in the right situation, and Harbaugh/Fangio could very much be it.  FTR, I consider that pretty low odds, but not a lot more outlandish than a 70% chance Cousins stays. 

But Cousins?  No way.  I agree that he wasn't the problem this season. He wasn't the solution either, and I'm at a loss for why people think that smart money is on keeping him. QB may be the most important position in the league, but it's not 35M/year important unless you're getting someone like Peyton Manning/Aaron Rodgers in his prime, and even then the numbers are clear that this kind of cash against the cap significantly hampers your team. We just hired an analytics/money guy to be the GM. He knows full well that Cousins's level of production does not warrant the salary he's being paid. I personally would swap your numbers... 30% chance he stays and 70% that he goes or plays it out. 

BTW... first question today from the Cleveland press...

www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/will-the-browns-have-interest-in-kirk-cousins-because-of-his-ties-to-kevin-stefanski-hey-mary-kay/ar-AATia65?ocid=entnewsntp

Not saying it will happen, but Cousins does present a significant step up from Mayfield in the eyes of a lot of people.

I'm 50/50 on Kirk. I think he is a really good QB but not great or elite. He can't win when things aren't necessarily perfect, and for sure the last 2 years are not his fault because of the defense.

I'm ok with trading him for the right price and I trust that if we extend him that we do so at that right price. Kirk has to know his actual "value" and we can't pay him top 5-7, he needs to be paid top 10-12. That would still put his cap hit likely around $25-$30 million.

The biggest problem, which I can't see any way of getting around is the $45 million he is due this year. Even with an extension that drops his cap hit say down to $30 million, that still leaves $15 million you have to spread out across his new deal.

So a 4 year $120 million new deal is technically 4 year $135 million.