Post by MidwinterViking on Mar 17, 2022 8:48:35 GMT -6
If Hunter doesn’t sign long term, what happens? After Sunday he becomes all but untradeable. Whether the bonus is paid as a roster bonus or converted to a signing bonus, it all becomes dead cap if he’s traded after Sunday. That means a deal after Sunday would require the Vikings to absorb something like $29M in dead cap and Hunter goes to a new team who pays him peanuts. The Vikings literally won’t be able to afford the dead cap hit. And even if they did release a bunch of players to get rid of another player, the trade return would go up significantly because the new team is getting him at a massive financial discount.
And, if that bonus kicks in, then what? Does Hunter have all the leverage going into 2023 when he will make $5M? Some, be even then if the Vikings don’t extend him they can franchise him in 2024. The DE franchise tag now is $17.9M; adding 10% in 2023 to $19.7M and another 10% in 2024, and the price to franchise Hunter in 2024 would probably be about $22M.
Then what... he’s gone for sure, right? No, franchise him again for a 20% increase and he gets $26M in 2025. Then, he walks away in the 2026 offseason at age 30. That would be salaries of:
2022: $20M
2023: $5M
2024: $22M (only if he’s still good and not injured)
2025: $27M (also if he’s still good and not injured)
Or put a different way – if Hunter was a free agent right now, and we signed him for 4 years, about $74M would that be a good deal? It’s better than good that’s a phenomenal team deal – that’s 4 years at $18-19M per year in a league were Maxx Crosby is getting 4 @ $23.5 per year. So even if I’m off by a few million on the franchise number it’s still a fantastic value for the Vikings.
Hunter is the one that NEEDS to get a deal by Sunday or he’s playing out a situation where he’s under paid by $20-30M over the next 4 years with no long term injury security.
so based on your numbers, he's got to give up some of that potential dough if he wants stability. I wonder if the Vikings are trying to bake in some performance bonus stuff like games played etc that's pissing him off.
I think it comes down to figuring out his cost. Looking at other top edge rushers on an average basis:
TJ Watt - $28M
Joey Bosa - $27M
Myles Garrett - $25M
Khalil Mack - $23.5M
Maxx Crosby - $23.5M
Frank Clark - $20M
Where does Hunter fit in that list? Most of those deals were signed in previous years (except Crosby), so there should be some natural inflation as the cap goes up. If Hunter had been fully healthy, he could argue that with an increased cap, he should top TJ Watt's number and get $30M per year (I don't know if that would be a great argument because Hunter has been great but not DPOY great, but he could as least start there).
So if the Vikings offer him with Myles Garrett or Joey Bosa type money (say $26M per year), does he take that? If the Vikings effectively replace the 2 years / $24M he has left to earn with 4 years (2 new) and $104M does he take that? Or 5/$130M to get a bigger number than Von Miller. That's going to be $20M less than TY Watt type money, but if the alternative is to play out his current deal and face 2 years of the franchise tag (total of the $74M) that starts to look pretty good.
So at the end of the day, the Vikings would have a short term incentive (cap space) to extend him, and Hunter has a long term incentive to get something done. So I'm going to say that I think an extension happens before Sunday.
... and neither is this Chris guy.
