Post by MidwinterViking on Dec 22, 2021 13:29:23 GMT -6
The Rams are the opposite of the Bears. Last week against the Bears, trends showed that the game winner would be the one better at scratching out points in a low scoring game. Rams games have perfect correlation with several statistics that are very expected:
And to beat the Rams, you have to beat the Rams straight up, not try and steal extra possessions; the team that attempts more 4th down conversions usually loses (2-8). So this all tells me there’s no gimmies against the Rams, the team that plays better wins.
Cardiac Vikings vs. Snoozer Rams
With only 4 losses, there aren't a lot of trends, but there is something to be found. This season the Rams have been the opposite of the Vikings in terms of drama; the Rams have had very little 2nd half drama. Looking at 2nd half trends.
In 4 Losses, the Rams trailed at halftime in all 4 and never even took a temporary lead in the 2nd half. I generally think the ESPN win probably overstates a team’s likelihood to win, but looking at the probably win charts for the Rams 4 losses shows very little drama.
The Rams have only trailed once at halftime and come back to win; making them a very beatable 1 out of 5 in end half comeback opportunities. In fact only 4 of their games have featured and kind of 2nd half lead change at all, those are:
Week 2 @ Colts: This was the only game with any kind of late game drama. The Colts needed a Fumble return TD to briefly take the lead, the Rams took the lead back the next Drive. Teams traded two field goals before Wentz effectively killed the Colts comeback chances with a late interception.
Week 5 @ Seahawks: the 2nd half comeback game!!! Excitement!!! The Rams trailed 7-3 at halftime, then took the lead on their 1st drive of the 2nd half, extended the lead on their next drive and never trailed again. By Vikings standards the is a snoozer.
Week 14 @ Cardinals: Game was tied 13-13 at halftime, the Rams took the lead on a TD 1:24 into the 3rd quarter and never trailed again.
Week 15 vs Seahawks: Game was tied 3-3 at halftime, Seahawks scored on the 1st Drive out of halftime, Rams Tied the game on their next drive before taking the lead for good early in the 4th.
That’s it. That’s every lead change in the 2nd half of Rams games this season.
Early Lead is Critical
Everything points to an early lead being critical in this game. The Rams don’t have much in the way of 2nd half comebacks, and when they do trail, they tend to play low scoring 2nd halves. Additionally most of their scoring advantage comes early, their season +83 scoring differential doesn’t tell the whole story. Scoring Differential by situation:
1st Half in Wins: +93
2nd half in Wins: +48
1st Half in Losses: -46
2nd Half in Losses: -12
And incidentally, the Rams early TDs tend to be passing TDs (12/14 of their game-1st TDs are through the air)
Jefferson is the Key
Van Jefferson that is. It’s easy to point to a guy like Cooper Kupp and assume “he’s huge, we need to shut him down”, good luck with that. Kupp’s targets and yards are so consistent that they almost become standard. He doesn’t go big in wins or get shut down in losses. Only 1 team has really succeeded in taking him off his game (that loss to Arizona where his yardage has a modest dip).
Sure, try to take Kupp off his game, but that's unlikely.
Jefferson on the other had is a huge wildcard. He only has 5 TDs, but of those 5, 3 have been the Rams first TD of the game (and remember for the Rams, early TDs win games). And check out the Breakdown of Jefferson’s target % vs. % of total yards compared to Cooper Kupp, Jefferson has a massive percentage of the team’s yards when the game is tied:
The target %'s stay almost exactly the same, but the Rams take deep shots to Van Jefferson when they need to get a lead. Jefferson is averaging over 20 yards per catch when the game is tied (vs 16 ypc on the season). These aren’t flukes either, they are legit big plays where he finds space deep down field.
Vs Bears:
Vs Cardinals (at the start and at 2:30)
Vs Packers
In addition to these highlight plays, there are less notable plays where the Rams have a tendency to go to Jefferson on the 1st series, even the 1st set of downs.
Vikings offense vs Rams Defense
The Rams strong defensive front make them hard to run against. Their pass defense is mid pack.
The most interesting thing is that most NFL passing offenses get worse when they are behind, on average passer rating goes down by about 30 Points and yards per attempt goes down by over 1 yard when a team is trailing vs. leading. This is true for the Rams as well, but the falloff is much less; -11 points on passer rating and less than half a yard on yards per attempt. My take on this is that teams come into the game expecting a passing game shoot out, so not much changes as the game progresses.
Either way, it will likely be easier for the Vikings to get and maintain a lead through the air than on the ground.
How to beat the Rams
The Rams It’s very clear, an early lead is critical to the Rams and they use Van Jefferson to get it. This is troubling because Jefferson has the profile of other guys that have caused problems for the Vikings (secondary receiving option + deep threat); so the safeties will need to be tracking him, especially early.
There is one other trend I noticed, this feed “Van Jefferson early” trend hasn’t held as much since the Rams brought in Odell Beckham. In fact I’m only really impressed by 1 of the 5 games the Rams have played since Beckham got there (the win vs Arizona).
- The team that throws more interceptions loses (0-11).
- The team that has a higher passer rating wins (14-0).
- Field goals don’t matter; the team that attempts more extra points wins (14-0) and kicking more field goals barely matters (4-3).
And to beat the Rams, you have to beat the Rams straight up, not try and steal extra possessions; the team that attempts more 4th down conversions usually loses (2-8). So this all tells me there’s no gimmies against the Rams, the team that plays better wins.
Cardiac Vikings vs. Snoozer Rams
With only 4 losses, there aren't a lot of trends, but there is something to be found. This season the Rams have been the opposite of the Vikings in terms of drama; the Rams have had very little 2nd half drama. Looking at 2nd half trends.
In 4 Losses, the Rams trailed at halftime in all 4 and never even took a temporary lead in the 2nd half. I generally think the ESPN win probably overstates a team’s likelihood to win, but looking at the probably win charts for the Rams 4 losses shows very little drama.
The Rams have only trailed once at halftime and come back to win; making them a very beatable 1 out of 5 in end half comeback opportunities. In fact only 4 of their games have featured and kind of 2nd half lead change at all, those are:
Week 2 @ Colts: This was the only game with any kind of late game drama. The Colts needed a Fumble return TD to briefly take the lead, the Rams took the lead back the next Drive. Teams traded two field goals before Wentz effectively killed the Colts comeback chances with a late interception.
Week 5 @ Seahawks: the 2nd half comeback game!!! Excitement!!! The Rams trailed 7-3 at halftime, then took the lead on their 1st drive of the 2nd half, extended the lead on their next drive and never trailed again. By Vikings standards the is a snoozer.
Week 14 @ Cardinals: Game was tied 13-13 at halftime, the Rams took the lead on a TD 1:24 into the 3rd quarter and never trailed again.
Week 15 vs Seahawks: Game was tied 3-3 at halftime, Seahawks scored on the 1st Drive out of halftime, Rams Tied the game on their next drive before taking the lead for good early in the 4th.
That’s it. That’s every lead change in the 2nd half of Rams games this season.
Early Lead is Critical
Everything points to an early lead being critical in this game. The Rams don’t have much in the way of 2nd half comebacks, and when they do trail, they tend to play low scoring 2nd halves. Additionally most of their scoring advantage comes early, their season +83 scoring differential doesn’t tell the whole story. Scoring Differential by situation:
1st Half in Wins: +93
2nd half in Wins: +48
1st Half in Losses: -46
2nd Half in Losses: -12
And incidentally, the Rams early TDs tend to be passing TDs (12/14 of their game-1st TDs are through the air)
Jefferson is the Key
Van Jefferson that is. It’s easy to point to a guy like Cooper Kupp and assume “he’s huge, we need to shut him down”, good luck with that. Kupp’s targets and yards are so consistent that they almost become standard. He doesn’t go big in wins or get shut down in losses. Only 1 team has really succeeded in taking him off his game (that loss to Arizona where his yardage has a modest dip).
Sure, try to take Kupp off his game, but that's unlikely.
Jefferson on the other had is a huge wildcard. He only has 5 TDs, but of those 5, 3 have been the Rams first TD of the game (and remember for the Rams, early TDs win games). And check out the Breakdown of Jefferson’s target % vs. % of total yards compared to Cooper Kupp, Jefferson has a massive percentage of the team’s yards when the game is tied:
The target %'s stay almost exactly the same, but the Rams take deep shots to Van Jefferson when they need to get a lead. Jefferson is averaging over 20 yards per catch when the game is tied (vs 16 ypc on the season). These aren’t flukes either, they are legit big plays where he finds space deep down field.
Vs Bears:
Vs Cardinals (at the start and at 2:30)
Vs Packers
In addition to these highlight plays, there are less notable plays where the Rams have a tendency to go to Jefferson on the 1st series, even the 1st set of downs.
Vikings offense vs Rams Defense
The Rams strong defensive front make them hard to run against. Their pass defense is mid pack.
The most interesting thing is that most NFL passing offenses get worse when they are behind, on average passer rating goes down by about 30 Points and yards per attempt goes down by over 1 yard when a team is trailing vs. leading. This is true for the Rams as well, but the falloff is much less; -11 points on passer rating and less than half a yard on yards per attempt. My take on this is that teams come into the game expecting a passing game shoot out, so not much changes as the game progresses.
Either way, it will likely be easier for the Vikings to get and maintain a lead through the air than on the ground.
How to beat the Rams
The Rams It’s very clear, an early lead is critical to the Rams and they use Van Jefferson to get it. This is troubling because Jefferson has the profile of other guys that have caused problems for the Vikings (secondary receiving option + deep threat); so the safeties will need to be tracking him, especially early.
There is one other trend I noticed, this feed “Van Jefferson early” trend hasn’t held as much since the Rams brought in Odell Beckham. In fact I’m only really impressed by 1 of the 5 games the Rams have played since Beckham got there (the win vs Arizona).
... and neither is this Chris guy.