How to Beat the Bears

The Bears are a team that is weirdly dependent on Field Goals.

The first thing I do when looking for flaws to exploit in an opponent is I download every games stat line for both a team and their opponents. Then I look at which stat more closely related to wins. This is usually sometime predictable and sometimes very strange. For example:

In games the Vikings have played, the team with more rush attempts is 12-1. The 1 exception is was week 2 when the Vikings had 27-21 rush attempts vs the Cardinals and lost (barely). This makes a lot of sense as both teams try to salt away a lead. Also common is seeing the team with the better passer rating winning a very high % of their game; this also makes a lot of sense.

The Bears are not a normal team. The stat most correlated with winning their games is Field Goals; in Bears games the team that attempts (or makes) more FGs is 11-1. Their first loss in a game where they made more Field goals was last Monday night when they out kicked the Packers 3-1 (while getting thrashed). Field Goals have a stronger correlation (correlation =/= causation) with winning than extra points (8-2), interceptions (3-9) or rush attempts (11-2), or passer rating (10-3).

I’m not ready to say we should send out Joseph every time we cross the 50, but that’s weird and worth looking at more.

How do the Bears Get TDs

Starting with TDs, since those typically win games, where do they come from for the Bears?
- Passing: 12
- Rushing: 10
- Defense & Special teams: 3

The Bears are Bad at Scoring TDs

That’s 22 offensive TDs vs 22 FG attempts for the Bears. This 1:1 ratio of TDs to FGs is terrible. Comparing the Bears to other teams.The top five teams have better than a 1.8:1 ratio of scoring TDs to attempting FGs (there is a big drop after #5). These teams all score TDs at a pretty good rate:

Bucs - 50:21
Chargers - 42:20
Seahawks - 33:16
Saints - 37:18
Cardinals – 41:22

Five teams are 1:1 or worse, some of these are interesting because they kick a lot of FGs, others because they score very few TDs.

Texans - 19:19 (Few TD)
Bears - 22:22
Raiders – 29:31 (Lots of FGs)
Patriots – 33:36 (Lots of FGs)
Giants – 21:29 (Few TDs, Lots of FGs)

For reference, the Vikings don’t have a great ratio here (36:32) confirming that our offense has left points on the table. However we’re pretty similar to the Cowboys, Raiders & Patriots in this metric, so I think it is more of an “at least get something” for the Vikings than some of the other teams “Can’t do anything” (Texans, Bears, Giants).

It’s even worse than that for the Bears
Not only do the Bears not score many TDs, but they are highly dependent on needing big plays to score TDs. Look at the rate of passing TDs more than 40 yards comparing some good and bad teams (I picked the 3 teams with the most passing TDs for comparison)

Good offenses
- Bucs: 6 (TDs of 40+ Yards) / 36 (Total Passing TDs) = 16.6%
- Chargers: 5/30 = 16.6%
- Rams: 5/30 = 16.6%
- Vikings: 3/27 = 11.1% (weird side note, KJ Osborn has 3 of the Vikings 4 longest TDs this year)

Bad offenses
- Giants: 1/12 = 8.3%
- Texans: 3/13 = 23%
- Bears: 4/12 = 33.3%

The Bears have all of 8 TD passes that they haven’t broken for big gains. These 4 are worth looking at because the Vikings are susceptible to big plays. They aren’t all Fields buying time, Dalton and Fields are both 2/6 TDs for 40+ yards. So here they are:

TD 1 – Dalton to Jakeem Grant


TD2 – Dalton to Damiere Byrd


TD3 – Fields Jakeem Grant


TD4 – Fields to Damiere Byrd


This tells a very different story than I expected to find. I thought I would find Fields keeping plays alive with his legs and guys coming open deep - then bombs away. I’m sure that happens, but that’s not how the Bears have gotten their big TDs. It’s 1 terrible coverage + 3 short passes broken by quick guys. Interestingly, all for of these came in losses for the Bears.

The FG Explanation
Now the dependency on Field Goals makes a lot more sense. The Bears defense is better than their offense so they tend to win lower scoring games. And they have a high reliance on unpredictable TDs (4 big pass plays + 3 D/ST) = 7/25 TDs were unpredictable. Fields has a 22 yard rush, no RB has a TD run longer than 15 yards.

So the only way the Bears can reliably with is scratch out every point they can from field goals. And opponents that can claw some field goals out of their defense do the same.

Every Point Will Matter
If FGs matter against the Bears (and they do, a lot), then scoring efficiency will matter. The Vikings have a huge advantage here. Looking at the % of scoring drive for offense and defense of each team:

Vikings Offense: 42% (better than average, 11th in NFL)
Bears Defense: 45% (terrible, 30th, only the Jets and Lions are worse)

Bears Offense: 31% (Below average, 26th in NFL)
Vikings Defense: 40% (below average, 21st)

The Vikings offense vs Bears defense should be an advantage for the Vikings, so the Bears will have to figure out something non-standard on their offensive side of the ball.

How to Bear the Bears
The Vikings have to prevent a broken defensive coverage from flipping the game. The Vikings can afford (and should) err on the side of preventing big plays from flipping the game because Chicago’s offense hasn’t proven it is consistent enough in normal situations.