Kirk to Pittsburgh? Trade Cousins?

The Minnesota Vikings are still in the process of interviewing candidates for their vacant general manager position, a process that kicks into high gear this week with interviews nearly every day. But as the ownership group and search committee confer with candidates, one topic will surely continue to come up: Kirk Cousins.

The team’s quarterback has one year remaining on his contract, which comes with a $45 million cap hit. While the Vikings will ask many big-picture questions of their GM interviewees, they’ll also want to know what the candidates think of Cousins.

Essentially, the Vikings have three options regarding their starting quarterback: extend Cousins, which could lower his 2022 cap hit; let Cousins play out the final year of his contract while preparing for a new quarterback, a move that makes it difficult to field a better roster next year but would provide ample cap space after that; or trade him.

A trade involving Cousins would be delicate and complicated, and there are different variations of that trade option. So, let’s take some guesses at what a Cousins trade could look like and what the Vikings might expect in return for their starting quarterback.

The Vikings pay none of Cousins’ salary
This is the first option, though perhaps the least likely for a couple of reasons, but let’s start with the general parameters of a trade. Though Cousins’ cap hit for 2022 is $45 million, $10 million of that comes in the form of a bonus. So even if the Vikings retain none of Cousins’ salary-cap hit, they’ll be on the hook for $10 million of dead money, and the team that receives Cousins would take on a $35 million cap hit.

I wanted to find another recent deal to compare a prospective Cousins trade to, and many around the league pointed to the 2018 deal that sent Alex Smith to Washington, coincidently to replace Cousins. Smith was traded for a third-round pick and a young player who had been taken in the third round two years earlier — so essentially two third-round picks. Like Cousins, Smith had one year left on his contract. Cousins is 33. Smith was 33 when he was traded.

But there are two additional things to keep in mind. The first is that Cousins is better than Smith was; thus, in theory, he should be worth more than Smith. But the second is that Cousins’ cap hit is considerably higher. Smith’s cap hit was $18.4 million, or 10.3 percent of the salary cap back then. The $35 million cap hit a team would incur by taking on Cousins would be 16.8 percent of the projected $208 million salary cap for 2022. Very few teams have the space to take on a player with that large of a hit.

Because of that, the number of teams capable of making a trade for Cousins without the Vikings taking on additional money is slim. The top options for a Cousins trade seem to be the Broncos, Steelers and Panthers, with a couple of other teams perhaps marginally interested. The Panthers wouldn’t have enough cap space to incur an additional $35 million. The Broncos and Steelers barely would, but that’s without factoring in free agents or a rookie draft class.

Because of that, it seems fair to think Cousins’ trade value without the Vikings incurring any more of his salary cap would be two Day 3 picks — just a little bit less than what Smith was traded for.

The Vikings pay $20 million
The Vikings would be able to retain a higher portion of Cousins’ cap hit by increasing his bonus. So if they gave Cousins an additional $10 million bonus, for example, a trade involving Cousins would leave them with $20 million in dead cap, and Cousins would go to his new team with a $25 million cap hit. That’s a much more reasonable number for opposing teams to take on and would place Cousins more in line with his production. The players with a cap hit of around $25 million in 2022 are Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garoppolo and Carson Wentz.

Cousins’ trade value would go up significantly in this scenario because of the more manageable cap hit. It just means that the Vikings would have to be willing not only to take on $20 million in dead cap but also to pay Cousins the $20 million in real money, a steep check for the owners, who will still be paying Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer after firing them with guaranteed money left on their contracts.

But a high second-round draft pick would be appealing to the Vikings in this scenario. Last year, Sam Darnold was traded for a second-round pick and two Day 3 selections while he had a $4.7 million cap hit in 2021 and an $18.8 million cap hit in 2022. Though the first year of that is significantly cheaper than Cousins’ deal, the 2022 cap hit wouldn’t be all that different from Cousins’ in this scenario. And Cousins is a much better quarterback.

It’s also fair to note that if Cousins were traded, the team acquiring him would probably want to work out an extension for him, opting against simply playing him in the final year of his contract. When Washington traded for Smith, it immediately signed him to a four-year extension.

But if the Vikings retained $20 million of Cousins’ $45 million cap hit, it’s conceivable that they could get a high second-round pick and multiple Day 3 selections in return, or potentially even a conditional first-round pick, based on whether Cousins’ new team reached the playoffs.

The Vikings pay $25 million
It’s worth noting again that it might be hard for ownership to stomach not only $25 million in dead cap but also paying Cousins $25 million in real money to leave. But the upside is big if the Vikings are willing to give Cousins a $15 million bonus in addition to the $10 million they’re already obligated to provide.

Last year, Wentz was traded for a third-round pick and a conditional second-rounder that became a first-round pick after Wentz played more than 75 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps. That gave the Eagles a first- and third-round pick in exchange for Wentz, who had three years left on his deal with about a $27 million cap hit each year. Cousins is a better quarterback than Wentz and in this scenario would come with a $20 million cap hit, less than Wentz’s.

So if the Vikings were willing to retain this much in dead cap, it’s conceivable that they could get a first-round pick and an additional Day 2 selection in exchange for Cousins. With a new regime taking over in Minnesota, two first-round picks and two second-round picks could be extremely valuable as they look to rebuild on the fly.

With two first-round picks (they have the No. 12 selection), the Vikings would be in a position to move up the draft board if they find a worthy quarterback. Or they could roll the dice with Kellen Mond or a cheaper free agent and use two first-round picks elsewhere.

The $25 million in dead cap would be a tough start for the Vikings’ new leadership, but it would probably net a first-round pick along with some other selections.